All 2026 races

35 Senate races · 36 governor races · 435 House districts (8 withheld, 17 uncontested)

Each chance is the favorite's chance of winning on Election Day (D Democrat, R Republican, I independent), not a vote share. Withheld races have no published forecast; their pages explain why. Uncontested House seats have no major-party opponent on the ballot. Forecasts as of October 4, 2026, 10:13 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (05:13 UTC).

Alabama

Senate R 98%
Governor R 95%

House

AL-1 R >99%
AL-2 D 64%
AL-3 R >99%
AL-4 R >99%
AL-5 R 99%
AL-6 R 95%
AL-7 D 99%

Alaska

Senate R 64%
Governor Withheld

House

AK-AL Withheld

Arizona

Governor D 85%

House

AZ-1 D 74%
AZ-2 R 53%
AZ-3 D >99%
AZ-4 D 99%
AZ-5 R 82%
AZ-6 R 50%
AZ-7 D >99%
AZ-8 R 90%
AZ-9 R >99%

Arkansas

Senate R 97%
Governor R 92%

House

AR-1 R >99%
AR-2 R 83%
AR-3 R 98%
AR-4 R >99%

California

Governor D >99%

House

Colorado

Senate D 98%
Governor D 94%

House

CO-1 D >99%
CO-2 D >99%
CO-3 R 81%
CO-4 R 90%
CO-5 R 59%
CO-6 D >99%
CO-7 D >99%
CO-8 D 75%

Connecticut

Governor D 99%

House

CT-1 D >99%
CT-2 D >99%
CT-3 D >99%
CT-4 D >99%
CT-5 D 99%

Delaware

Senate D 99%

House

DE-AL D >99%

Florida

Senate R 84%
Governor R 72%

House

FL-1 R >99%
FL-2 R 81%
FL-3 R 95%
FL-4 R 90%
FL-5 R 80%
FL-6 R 95%
FL-7 D 73%
FL-8 R 85%
FL-9 D 67%
FL-10 Uncontested (D)
FL-11 R 74%
FL-12 R 85%
FL-13 R 69%
FL-14 D 97%
FL-15 R 97%
FL-16 R 73%
FL-17 R 97%
FL-18 R 93%
FL-19 R 99%
FL-20 D >99%
FL-21 R 86%
FL-22 D 84%
FL-23 D 97%
FL-24 D 78%
FL-25 D 93%
FL-26 R 73%
FL-27 R 92%
FL-28 R 95%

Georgia

Senate D 87%
Governor D 56%

House

GA-1 R 78%
GA-2 D 99%
GA-3 R >99%
GA-4 D >99%
GA-5 D >99%
GA-6 D >99%
GA-7 R 97%
GA-8 R >99%
GA-9 R >99%
GA-10 R 87%
GA-11 R 96%
GA-12 R 86%
GA-13 D >99%
GA-14 R >99%

Hawaii

Governor D >99%

House

HI-1 D >99%
HI-2 D >99%

Idaho

Senate R 98%
Governor R 99%

House

ID-1 R >99%
ID-2 R 99%

Illinois

Senate D 96%
Governor D 96%

House

IL-1 D >99%
IL-2 D >99%
IL-3 D >99%
IL-4 D >99%
IL-5 D >99%
IL-6 D 99%
IL-7 D >99%
IL-8 D 98%
IL-9 D >99%
IL-10 D >99%
IL-11 D 98%
IL-12 R >99%
IL-13 D >99%
IL-14 D 99%
IL-15 R >99%
IL-16 R 96%
IL-17 D 98%

Indiana

House

IN-1 D 96%
IN-2 R 99%
IN-3 R >99%
IN-4 R >99%
IN-5 R 76%
IN-6 R 99%
IN-7 D >99%
IN-8 R >99%
IN-9 R >99%

Iowa

Senate R 58%
Governor D 73%

House

IA-1 D 69%
IA-2 D 54%
IA-3 D 63%
IA-4 R 93%

Kansas

Senate R 72%
Governor R 62%

House

KS-1 R >99%
KS-2 R 94%
KS-3 D 99%
KS-4 R 98%

Kentucky

Senate R 91%

House

KY-1 R >99%
KY-2 R >99%
KY-3 D >99%
KY-4 R 99%
KY-5 R >99%
KY-6 R 72%

Louisiana

Senate R 95%

House

LA-1 Withheld
LA-2 D >99%
LA-3 Withheld
LA-4 Withheld
LA-5 Withheld
LA-6 Withheld

Maine

Senate R 69%
Governor D 91%

House

ME-1 D >99%
ME-2 D 87%

Maryland

Governor D >99%

House

MD-1 R 91%
MD-2 D >99%
MD-3 D >99%
MD-4 D >99%
MD-5 D >99%
MD-6 D 98%
MD-7 D >99%
MD-8 D >99%

Massachusetts

Senate D >99%
Governor D >99%

House

MA-1 Uncontested (D)
MA-2 Uncontested (D)
MA-3 D >99%
MA-4 D >99%
MA-5 Uncontested (D)
MA-6 D >99%
MA-7 Uncontested (D)
MA-8 D >99%
MA-9 D >99%

Michigan

Senate D 57%
Governor D 86%

House

MI-1 R 94%
MI-2 R >99%
MI-3 D >99%
MI-4 D 69%
MI-5 R 99%
MI-6 D >99%
MI-7 D 69%
MI-8 D 98%
MI-9 R >99%
MI-10 D 54%
MI-11 D >99%
MI-12 D >99%
MI-13 D >99%

Minnesota

Senate D 75%
Governor D 90%

House

MN-1 R 84%
MN-2 D 98%
MN-3 D >99%
MN-4 D >99%
MN-5 D >99%
MN-6 R 94%
MN-7 R >99%
MN-8 R 90%

Mississippi

Senate R 89%

House

MS-1 R >99%
MS-2 D >99%
MS-3 R >99%
MS-4 R >99%

Missouri

House

MO-1 D >99%
MO-2 R 64%
MO-3 R 99%
MO-4 R >99%
MO-5 D >99%
MO-6 R >99%
MO-7 R >99%
MO-8 R >99%

Montana

Senate R 99%

House

MT-1 R 52%
MT-2 R >99%

Nebraska

Senate R 66%
Governor R 92%

House

NE-1 R 87%
NE-2 D 91%
NE-3 R >99%

Nevada

Governor R 69%

House

NV-1 D 96%
NV-2 R 63%
NV-3 D 95%
NV-4 D 98%

New Hampshire

Senate D 79%
Governor R 91%

House

NH-1 D 94%
NH-2 D 99%

New Jersey

Senate D 95%

House

NJ-1 D >99%
NJ-2 R 72%
NJ-3 D 99%
NJ-4 R >99%
NJ-5 D 97%
NJ-6 D 99%
NJ-7 D 67%
NJ-8 Uncontested (D)
NJ-9 D 95%
NJ-10 D >99%
NJ-11 D >99%
NJ-12 D >99%

New Mexico

Senate D 92%
Governor D 77%

House

NM-1 D >99%
NM-2 D 95%
NM-3 D 99%

New York

Governor D 97%

House

NY-1 R 82%
NY-2 R 91%
NY-3 D 90%
NY-4 D 95%
NY-5 D >99%
NY-6 D 99%
NY-7 D >99%
NY-8 D >99%
NY-9 D >99%
NY-10 D >99%
NY-11 R 99%
NY-12 D >99%
NY-13 D >99%
NY-14 D >99%
NY-15 D >99%
NY-16 D >99%
NY-17 D 68%
NY-18 D 99%
NY-19 D 97%
NY-20 D >99%
NY-21 R 88%
NY-22 D >99%
NY-23 R 97%
NY-24 R 99%
NY-25 D >99%
NY-26 D >99%

North Carolina

Senate D 90%

House

NC-1 D 81%
NC-2 D >99%
NC-3 R 59%
NC-4 D >99%
NC-5 R 77%
NC-6 R 84%
NC-7 R 79%
NC-8 R 88%
NC-9 R 70%
NC-10 R 86%
NC-11 R 51%
NC-12 D >99%
NC-13 R 87%
NC-14 R 83%

North Dakota

House

ND-AL R >99%

Ohio

Senate D 58%
Governor R 54%

House

OH-1 D 93%
OH-2 R >99%
OH-3 D >99%
OH-4 R >99%
OH-5 R 97%
OH-6 R 99%
OH-7 D 79%
OH-8 R 80%
OH-9 D 84%
OH-10 R 81%
OH-11 D >99%
OH-12 R 99%
OH-13 D 97%
OH-14 R 89%
OH-15 D 63%

Oklahoma

Senate R 99%
Governor R 87%

House

OK-1 R 90%
OK-2 R >99%
OK-3 R >99%
OK-4 R >99%
OK-5 R 84%

Oregon

Senate D 98%
Governor D 67%

House

OR-1 D >99%
OR-2 R 98%
OR-3 D >99%
OR-4 D 99%
OR-5 D 99%
OR-6 D 99%

Pennsylvania

Governor D >99%

House

PA-1 R 57%
PA-2 D >99%
PA-3 Uncontested (D)
PA-4 D >99%
PA-5 D >99%
PA-6 D >99%
PA-7 D 68%
PA-8 R 53%
PA-9 R >99%
PA-10 R 52%
PA-11 R 97%
PA-12 D >99%
PA-13 R >99%
PA-14 R >99%
PA-15 R >99%
PA-16 R 98%
PA-17 D 99%

Rhode Island

Senate D >99%
Governor D >99%

House

RI-1 D >99%
RI-2 D >99%

South Carolina

Senate R 74%
Governor R 80%

House

SC-1 R 69%
SC-2 R 84%
SC-3 R >99%
SC-4 R 93%
SC-5 R 96%
SC-6 D >99%
SC-7 R 99%

South Dakota

Senate R 92%
Governor R 98%

House

SD-AL R >99%

Tennessee

Senate R 99%
Governor R 98%

House

TN-1 R >99%
TN-2 R >99%
TN-3 R >99%
TN-4 R 88%
TN-5 R 57%
TN-6 R 97%
TN-7 R 90%
TN-8 R 75%
TN-9 R 66%

Texas

Senate R 51%
Governor R 79%

House

Utah

House

UT-1 D >99%
UT-2 R 99%
UT-3 R >99%
UT-4 R >99%

Vermont

Governor R 92%

House

VT-AL D >99%

Virginia

Senate D 96%

House

VA-1 D 64%
VA-2 D 77%
VA-3 D >99%
VA-4 D >99%
VA-5 R 68%
VA-6 R 98%
VA-7 D 93%
VA-8 D >99%
VA-9 R >99%
VA-10 D 98%
VA-11 D >99%

Washington

House

WA-1 D >99%
WA-2 D >99%
WA-3 D 90%
WA-4 R 89%
WA-5 R 78%
WA-6 D >99%
WA-7 D >99%
WA-8 D 97%
WA-9 D >99%
WA-10 D >99%

West Virginia

Senate R 99%

House

WV-1 R >99%
WV-2 R >99%

Wisconsin

Governor D 61%

House

WI-1 R 82%
WI-2 Uncontested (D)
WI-3 R 80%
WI-4 D >99%
WI-5 R 96%
WI-6 R 88%
WI-7 R 88%
WI-8 R 88%

Wyoming

Senate R >99%
Governor R >99%

House

WY-AL R >99%