Maryland House
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
>99%chance of a Democratic majority
<1%chance of a Republican majority
71seats for a majority, of 141
141 of 141 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 103 seats after November (80% range 100–108) and Republicans 38 (33–41).
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | Forecast | Jason M. Jobe (D), Dan Duggan (R) | <1% | official |
| 1B | Forecast | Rhiannon C. Brown (D), Jason C. Buckel (R) | 5% | official |
| 1C | Forecast | Seth Funk (D), Terry Baker (R) | <1% | official |
| 2A | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.1 | John D. Leonard (D), Brandon Thompson (D), William Valentine (R), William J. Wivell (R) | 7% | official |
| 2B | Forecast | Matthew J. Schindler (D), Brenda J. Thiam (R) | 96% | official |
| 3 | Elects 3: expected Democratic seats 3.0 | Kris Fair (D), Ken Kerr (D), Karen Simpson (D), Angela McIntosh (R) | >99% | official |
| 4 | Elects 3: expected Democratic seats 0.5 | Jerry Donald (D), Andrew Duck (D), Alleria Stanley (D), Jason E. Keckler (R), April Fleming Miller (R), Jesse T. Pippy (R) | 13% | official |
| 5 | Elects 3: expected Democratic seats 0.2 | Dayana Bergman (D), Alison Rudolph (D), Courtney Alexa Welch (D), April R. Rose (R), Chris Tomlinson (R), Steve Whisler (R) | 5% | official |
| 6 | Elects 3: expected Democratic seats 0.1 | Artus W. Huffman (D), Megan Ann Mioduszewski (D), Rayneika Robinson (D), Robin L. Grammer (R), Bob Long (R), Ric Metzgar (R) | 3% | official |
| 7A | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.1 | Ly Xinzhen Brown (D), Satish Chapagain (D), Ryan Nawrocki (R), Kathy Szeliga (R) | 11% | official |
| 7B | Forecast | Candace Hart (D), Lauren Arikan (R) | <1% | official |
| 8 | Elects 3: expected Democratic seats 3.0 | Nick Allen (D), Harry Bhandari (D), Kim L. Ross (D), Brian A. Campbell (R), Glen Geelhaar (R), Steven J. Riemer (R) | >99% | official |
| 9A | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 1.8 | Chao Wu (D), Natalie Ziegler (D), Fitzgerald Mofor (R), Spencer Rhoda (R), Saif Rehman (independent) | 96% | official |
| 9B | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Courtney Watson (D) | official | |
| 10 | Decided: 3 Democratic, 0 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Robin Harvey (D), N. Scott Phillips (D), Jennifer White Holland (D) | official | |
| 11A | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Cheryl E. Pasteur (D) | official | |
| 11B | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 2.0 | Jon S. Cardin (D), Dana Stein (D), John C. Gordon (R) | >99% | official |
| 12A | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 2.0 | Jessica Feldmark (D), Terri Hill (D), Frank Glover (R) | >99% | official |
| 12B | Forecast | Gary Simmons (D), Blair L. Brannock (R) | 97% | official |
| 13 | Elects 3: expected Democratic seats 3.0 | Amy Brooks (D), Pam Lanman Guzzone (D), Gabriel Maximilian Moreno (D), Mark Fisher (R) | >99% | official |
| 14 | Decided: 3 Democratic, 0 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Anne R. Kaiser (D), Bernice Mireku-North (D), Matt Post (D) | official | |
| 15 | Elects 3: expected Democratic seats 3.0 | Linda Foley (D), David V. Fraser-Hidalgo (D), Lily Qi (D), Peter Chan (R) | >99% | official |
| 16 | Elects 3: expected Democratic seats 3.0 | Marc Korman (D), Sarah Wolek (D), Teresa Saavedra Woorman (D), Ann Guthrie Hingston (R), Bob White (Working Class Party) | >99% | official |
| 17 | Decided: 3 Democratic, 0 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Julie Palakovich Carr (D), Ryan Spiegel (D), Joe Vogel (D) | official | |
| 18 | Decided: 3 Democratic, 0 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Aaron M. Kaufman (D), Emily Shetty (D), Jared Solomon (D) | official | |
| 19 | Decided: 3 Democratic, 0 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Charlotte Crutchfield (D), Vaughn Stewart (D), Christa Tichy (D) | official | |
| 20 | Decided: 3 Democratic, 0 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Lorig Charkoudian (D), David Moon (D), Jheanelle K. Wilkins (D) | official | |
| 21 | Decided: 3 Democratic, 0 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Ben Barnes (D), Mary A. Lehman (D), Joseline A. Peña-Melnyk (D) | official | |
| 22 | Decided: 3 Democratic, 0 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Tracy Gant (D), Ashanti Martinez (D), Molly McKee-Seabrook (D) | official | |
| 23 | Elects 3: expected Democratic seats 2.9 | Marvin E. Holmes, Jr. (D), Keenon James (D), Kym Taylor (D), Michael Riker (R), Kimberly Simmons Robinson (R) | 97% | official |
| 24 | Decided: 3 Democratic, 0 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Derrick L. Coley (D), Andrea Fletcher Harrison (D), LaTasha R. Ward (D) | official | |
| 25 | Decided: 3 Democratic, 0 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Kent Roberson (D), Denise Roberts (D), Karen Toles (D) | official | |
| 26 | Elects 3: expected Democratic seats 3.0 | Veronica Turner (D), Kriselda Valderrama (D), Jamila J. Woods (D), JoAnn Y. Fisher (R), Ike Puzon (R) | >99% | official |
| 27A | Forecast | Darrell C. Odom, Sr. (D), Jim Crawford (R) | 97% | official |
| 27B | Forecast | Jeffrie E. Long, Jr. (D), Dan L. Thomas (R) | 97% | official |
| 27C | Forecast | Jennifer M. Davidson (D), Mark N. Fisher (R) | 5% | official |
| 28 | Elects 3: expected Democratic seats 3.0 | Abena Affum-McAllister (D), Debra Davis (D), Edith J. Patterson (D), James Emerson Ashburn (R), Winfield W. Clark, Jr. (R) | >99% | official |
| 29A | Forecast | Jennifer Lynn Clancy (D), Matt Morgan (R) | 5% | official |
| 29B | Forecast | Adrianne M. Mathis (D), Bj Hall (R) | 95% | official |
| 29C | Forecast | Shaara Watts (D), Todd B. Morgan (R) | 1% | official |
| 30A | Decided: 2 Democratic, 0 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Dylan Behler (D), Dana Jones (D) | official | |
| 30B | Forecast | Matt Johnston (D), Seth Howard (R) | 8% | official |
| 31 | Elects 3: expected Democratic seats 0.2 | Joan Barone Cole (D), Heidi Buchanan Schmidt (D), Ryan Kelly Shaban (D), LaToya Marie Caldwell-Nkongolo (R), Brian A. Chisholm (R), Mike Jacobs (R) | 4% | official |
| 32 | Elects 3: expected Democratic seats 3.0 | J. Sandy Bartlett (D), Spencer F. Dixon (D), Mike Rogers (D), Colin McEvers (R), Mary Phelps (R), Marcus Damon Snipes, Jr. (R) | >99% | official |
| 33A | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Andrew C. Pruski (D) | official | |
| 33B | Forecast | Chuck Cook (D), Stuart M. Schmidt, Jr. (R) | 44% | official |
| 33C | Forecast | Heather A. Bagnall (D), Kristin M. Norris (R) | 96% | official |
| 34A | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 1.9 | Andre V. Johnson, Jr. (D), Steve Johnson (D), Elliott Joseph Herneker (R) | >99% | official |
| 34B | Forecast | Anthony Lyon (D), Jake Taylor (R) | 4% | official |
| 35A | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.1 | Gregory V. Anderson (D), Michael A. Eckels, Jr. (D), Mike Griffith (R), Teresa Reilly (R) | 7% | official |
| 35B | Forecast | Blessing T. Oluwadare (D), Derek J. Howell (R) | 7% | official |
| 36 | Elects 3: expected Democratic seats 0.2 | Nevin Crouse (D), Michelle Ravert (D), Crystal Woodward (D), Steve Arentz (R), Jeff Ghrist (R), Jay A. Jacobs (R) | 5% | official |
| 37A | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Sheree Sample-Hughes (D) | official | |
| 37B | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.2 | Edmund J. Barrett (D), Michele W. Johnson (D), Chris Adams (R), Tom Hutchinson (R) | 15% | official |
| 38A | Forecast | Shelley Johnson (D), C. L. Marshall, III (R) | 2% | official |
| 38B | Forecast | Josh Hastings (D), Barry S. Beauchamp (R) | 4% | official |
| 38C | Decided: only a Republican is running | Wayne A. Hartman (R) | official | |
| 39 | Decided: 3 Democratic, 0 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Gabriel Acevero (D), Lesley J. Lopez (D), Greg Wims (D) | official | |
| 40 | Decided: 3 Democratic, 0 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Marlon D. Amprey (D), Tiffany Welch (D), Melissa Wells (D) | official | |
| 41 | Decided: 3 Democratic, 0 Republican on the ballot for these seats | S. I. "Sandy" Rosenberg (D), Sean A. Stinnett (D), Ryan Turner (D) | official | |
| 42A | Forecast | Jyoti Mohan (D), Charles Edward Murphy, III (R) | 9% | official |
| 42B | Forecast | Michele Guyton (D), Jeffry K. McDonald (R) | >99% | official |
| 42C | Forecast | Corynne Courpas (D), Steve Patten (R) | 7% | official |
| 43A | Decided: 2 Democratic, 0 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Regina T. Boyce (D), Elizabeth Embry (D) | official | |
| 43B | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Cathi Forbes (D) | official | |
| 44A | Forecast | Eric Ebersole (D), Chuck Linton (R) | >99% | official |
| 44B | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 2.0 | Aletheia McCaskill (D), Sheila Ruth (D), Domonic Martin (R) | >99% | official |
| 45 | Decided: 3 Democratic, 0 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Jackie Addison (D), Chanel A. Branch (D), Caylin Young (D), Renaud De'Aundre Brown (Green) | official | |
| 46 | Elects 3: expected Democratic seats 3.0 | Luke Clippinger (D), Mark Edelson (D), Robbyn Lewis (D), Jeremy L. Amason (R) | >99% | official |
| 47A | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 2.0 | Diana M. Fennell (D), Robert Julian Ivey (D), Fred M. Price, Jr. (R) | >99% | official |
| 47B | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Deni Taveras (D) | official |