Tennessee House
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
<1%chance of a Democratic majority
>99%chance of a Republican majority
50seats for a majority, of 99
99 of 99 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 23 seats after November (80% range 22–25) and Republicans 75 (73–76). The other 1 seat is expected to go to independents, nonpartisan members or other parties. 1 seat cannot be forecast and is counted for each party in turn in the chances above. In 2 seats a Democrat or Republican faces only independents or minor-party candidates and is counted as winning; in 2018 to 2024 such candidates lost about 3% of the time, mostly to sitting independents.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Jessica Means (R) | wikipedia | |
| 2 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Gary Stidham (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 3 | Forecast | Lori Love (D), Timothy Hill (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 4 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Renea Jones (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 5 | Forecast | Catherine Bacon (D), David B. Hawk (R) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 6 | Forecast | Brad Batt (D), Tim Hicks (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 7 | Forecast | Sarah Jayne Della Vecchia (D), Rebecca Keefauver Alexander (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 8 | Forecast | Hilary Trudell (D), Jordan Henderson (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 9 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Gary W Hicks Jr. (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 10 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Rick Eldridge (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 11 | Forecast | Sheila Grooms McMahan (D), Kenny Cody (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 12 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Fred A. Atchley (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 13 | Forecast | Brett Windrow (D), Robert Stevens (R) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 14 | Forecast | Lindsay Young Honaker (D), Jason Zachary (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 15 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Sam McKenzie (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 16 | Forecast | Eliza Boles (D), Michele Carringer (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 17 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Andrew Ellis Farmer (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 18 | Forecast | Bryan Goldberg (D), Elaine Davis (R) | 14% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 19 | Forecast | Jenny Fowler (D), Dave Wright (R) | 3% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 20 | Forecast | Karen Gertz (D), Tom Stinnett (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 21 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Lowell Russell (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 22 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Dan Howell (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 23 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Mark Cochran (R), Jeremy Bromwell (independent), Jason Hitt (independent) | wikipedia | |
| 24 | Forecast | Daniel F. Jones (D), Kevin Raper (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 25 | Forecast | Monica Mowdy (D), Cameron Sexton (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 26 | Forecast | Nathan B. Denton (D), Greg Martin (R) | 1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 27 | Forecast | Paige Quirin (D), Michele Reneau (R) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 28 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Yusuf A. Hakeem (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 29 | Forecast | Ryan V. Scofield (D), Greg Vital (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 30 | Forecast | Art Rymer (D), Esther Helton Haynes (R) | 4% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 31 | Forecast | Michael Woodlee (D), J. Swafford (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 32 | Forecast | Ali Simpson (D), Jack L. Stockton (R) | 4% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 33 | Forecast | Anne Backus (D), Rick Scarbrough (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 34 | Forecast | Owen Farnsworth (D), Tim Rudd (R) | 1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 35 | Forecast | Phil Barnes (D), William Slater (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 36 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Noah Smith (R) | wikipedia | |
| 37 | Forecast | Mary Ann Young (D), Charlie Baum (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 38 | Forecast | Seth McMillan (D), Kelly T Keisling (R) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 39 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Iris Rudder (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 40 | Forecast | Daniel T. Hawthorne (D), Michael Hale (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 41 | Forecast | R. Jason Goodman (D), Ed Butler (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 42 | Forecast | Trenton Tyler Strode (D), Ryan D. Williams (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 43 | Forecast | Samantha Petit (D), Paul Sherrell (R) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 44 | Forecast | Latoya Holcomb (D), William Lamberth (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 45 | Forecast | Mandy Cook (D), Brian Stewart (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 46 | Forecast | Dominic Howard (D), Clark Boyd (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 47 | Forecast | Mike Stein (D), Rush Bricken (R) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 48 | Forecast | Matt Ferry (D), Bryan Terry (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 49 | Forecast | Connie Casha (D), Mike Sparks (R) | 5% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 50 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Bo Mitchell (D) | wikipedia | |
| 51 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Aftyn Behn (D) | wikipedia | |
| 52 | Forecast | Justin Jones (D), Michele Vetter (R), Martez Coleman (independent) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 53 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jason Powell (D) | wikipedia | |
| 54 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Vincent B. Dixie (D) | wikipedia | |
| 55 | Forecast | John Ray Clemmons (D), Jayla Thomas (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 56 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Bob Freeman (D) | wikipedia | |
| 57 | Forecast | Matt Burchfield (D), Susan M Lynn (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 58 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Harold M. Love Jr. (D) | wikipedia | |
| 59 | Forecast | Mark Proctor (D), Bill Hancock (R) | 98% | wikipedia |
| 60 | Forecast | Shaundelle Brooks (D), Eva Angelina Romero (R) | 92% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 61 | Forecast | Becca Ripley (D), Gino Bulso (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 62 | Forecast | Brieanna L Akers (D), Pat Marsh (R) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 63 | Forecast | Laura Andreson (D), Jake McCalmon (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 64 | Forecast | Craig D'Apolito (D), Scott Cepicky (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 65 | Forecast | Julian Herbert Pierre-Griffin (D), Lee Reeves (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 66 | Forecast | Tamara Bavendam (D), Sabi "Doc" Kumar (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 67 | Forecast | Chris Lanier (R), Ronnie Glynn (D) | 76% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 68 | Forecast | Aron Maberry (R), Garfield Scott (D) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 69 | Forecast | Rachael Murray (D), Jody Barrett (R) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 70 | Forecast | Rayanne Moos (D), Clay Doggett (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 71 | Forecast | Matt Day (D), Kip Capley (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 72 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Kirk Haston (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 73 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Chris Todd (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 74 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Jay D. Reedy (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 75 | Forecast | Michael Lankford (R), Allie Phillips (D) | 11% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 76 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Tandy Darby (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 77 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Rusty Grills (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 78 | Forecast | Hillary Capes-Gwinn (D), Perry Keenan (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 79 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Brock Martin (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 80 | Forecast | Andrea Bond Johnson (D), Julian A. McTizic (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 81 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Brett Giannini (R) | wikipedia | |
| 82 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Chris Hurt (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 83 | Forecast | Margaret Price (D), Mark White (R) | 3% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 84 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Joe Towns (D) | wikipedia | |
| 85 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jesse Chism (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 86 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Justin J. Pearson (D) | wikipedia | |
| 87 | Forecast | Karen Camper (D), Reggie William Hall (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 88 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Larry J. Miller (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 89 | Forecast | Randy Debord (D), Justin Lafferty (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 90 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Gloria Johnson (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 91 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Torrey C. Harris (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 92 | Forecast | Teri Mai (D), Todd Warner (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 93 | Not forecast: no candidate on the ballot (write-ins only) | |||
| 94 | Forecast | Francine Johnson (D), Ron M. Gant (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 95 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Kevin Vaughan (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 96 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Telisa Franklin (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 97 | Forecast | Jesse Huseth (D), John Gillespie (R) | 26% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 98 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Antonio Parkinson (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 99 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | William P Mouzon (independent), Tom Leatherwood (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |