Georgia Senate
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
56 of 56 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 23 seats after November (80% range 22–25) and Republicans 33 (31–34).
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Forecast | Ben Watson (R), Corey Foreman (D) | 4% | official |
| 2 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Derek J. Mallow (D) | official | |
| 3 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Mike Hodges (R) | official | |
| 4 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Billy Hickman (R) | official | |
| 5 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Sheikh Rahman (D) | official | |
| 6 | Forecast | Matt Brass (R), JerMarkus A. Jacobs (D) | <1% | official |
| 7 | Forecast | Aizaz Shahbaz Shaikh (R), Ruwa Romman (D) | 93% | official |
| 8 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Russ Goodman (R) | official | |
| 9 | Forecast | Michael Johnson (R), Nikki Merritt (D) | 99% | official |
| 10 | Forecast | Furquan Stafford (R), Larry Johnson (D) | >99% | official |
| 11 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Sam Watson (R) | official | |
| 12 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Edward Brown (D) | official | |
| 13 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Carden H. Summers (R) | official | |
| 14 | Forecast | Mike Dvorscak (R), Kevin Abel (D) | 98% | official |
| 15 | Forecast | Chuck Hand (R), Tremaine "Teddy" Reese (D) | 98% | official |
| 16 | Forecast | Marty Harbin (R), Sonya Wimberly Hawkins (D) | <1% | official |
| 17 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Gail Davenport (D) | official | |
| 18 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Steven McNeel (R) | official | |
| 19 | Forecast | David Sikes (R), Joshua C. Wilkerson (D) | 2% | official |
| 20 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Larry Walker (R) | official | |
| 21 | Forecast | Jason T. Dickerson (R), Kori Simmons (D) | <1% | official |
| 22 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Harold V. Jones II (D) | official | |
| 23 | Forecast | Max Burns (R), Shayna Boston (D) | 1% | official |
| 24 | Forecast | Lee Anderson (R), Lorraine V. Thomas (D) | 2% | official |
| 25 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Rick A. Williams (R) | official | |
| 26 | Forecast | Tracy Wheeler (R), David E. Lucas (D) | 98% | official |
| 27 | Forecast | Mike Dudgeon (R), Jessica Roper (D) | <1% | official |
| 28 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Donzella James (D) | official | |
| 29 | Forecast | Randy Robertson (R), Jeff Lowe (D) | <1% | official |
| 30 | Forecast | Timothy J. Bearden (R), Wanda Cooper (D) | <1% | official |
| 31 | Forecast | Jason R. Anavitarte (R), Alec Miller (D) | 3% | official |
| 32 | Forecast | Kay Kirkpatrick (R), Michael Hettig (D) | 4% | official |
| 33 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Michael Doc Rhett (D) | official | |
| 34 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Kenya Wicks (D) | official | |
| 35 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jaha V. Howard (D) | official | |
| 36 | Forecast | Katie Corkren (R), Nan Grogan Orrock (D) | >99% | official |
| 37 | Forecast | Ed Setzler (R), Darcy Castro (D) | 6% | official |
| 38 | Forecast | Eric Helvy (R), Rashaun Kemp (D) | 99% | official |
| 39 | Forecast | John F. Guest, Jr. (R), Sonya Halpern (D) | 99% | official |
| 40 | Forecast | Melina R. Mast (R), Sally Harrell (D) | >99% | official |
| 41 | Forecast | Jeff Newlin (R), Kim Jackson (D) | >99% | official |
| 42 | Forecast | Bret A. Dunn (R), Eric W. Lee, Sr. (D) | 10% | official |
| 43 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Tonya P. Anderson (D) | official | |
| 44 | Forecast | Ngozi Orabueze (R), Saira Draper (D) | 99% | official |
| 45 | Forecast | Clint Dixon (R), Scott Tippetts (D) | 4% | official |
| 46 | Forecast | Marc McMain (R), Ray Smith (D) | 2% | official |
| 47 | Forecast | Frank Ginn (R), Justin Gillespie (D) | 1% | official |
| 48 | Forecast | Shawn Still (R), Laura Murvartian (D) | 22% | official |
| 49 | Forecast | Drew Echols (R), William Wallace (D) | 2% | official |
| 50 | Forecast | Bo Hatchett (R), Dave Cooper (D) | <1% | official |
| 51 | Forecast | Will Wade (R), Gary St. Lawrence (D) | 2% | official |
| 52 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Chuck Hufstetler (R) | official | |
| 53 | Forecast | Lanny Thomas (R), John Bentley "Jack" Zibluk (D) | <1% | official |
| 54 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Chuck Payne (R) | official | |
| 55 | Forecast | Mary Williams Benefield (R), Randal Mangham (D) | >99% | official |
| 56 | Forecast | John Albers (R), Patrick Thompson (D) | 2% | official |