Indiana Senate
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
25 of 50 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 10 seats after November (80% range 9–13) and Republicans 40 (37–41).
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Forecast | Scott Houldieson (D), Trevor G. De Vries (R) | 47% | official |
| 2 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 3 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 4 | Forecast | Rodney Pol (D), Nate Uldricks (R) | 96% | official |
| 5 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 6 | Forecast | Kate-Lynn Holley (D), James (Jay) Starkey (R) | 7% | official |
| 7 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 8 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 9 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 10 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 11 | Forecast | Gabrianna Gratzol (D), Brian S. Schmutzler (R) | 7% | official |
| 12 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 13 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 14 | Forecast | Blaine Sefton (D), Tyler Johnson (R) | <1% | official |
| 15 | Forecast | Julie McGill (D), Liz Brown (R) | 4% | official |
| 16 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 17 | Forecast | Cynthia M. Wehr (D), Chris Parker (R) | <1% | official |
| 18 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 19 | Forecast | Timothy C. Murphy (D), Blake Fiechter (R) | 6% | official |
| 20 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 21 | Forecast | Kirsten Root (D), Tracey Powell (R) | 2% | official |
| 22 | Forecast | Natasha Baker (D), Ron Alting (R) | 5% | official |
| 23 | Forecast | David A Sanders (D), Joshua Brant (independent), Spencer R. Deery (R) | 5% | official |
| 24 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 25 | Forecast | Tamie Dixon-Tatum (D), Mike Gaskill (R) | 1% | official |
| 26 | Forecast | Andrew Dale (D), Scott A. Alexander (R) | 6% | official |
| 27 | Forecast | Ronald Itnyre (D), Jeff Raatz (R) | <1% | official |
| 28 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 29 | Forecast | Kristina Moorhead (D), John Ruckelshaus (R) | 49% | official |
| 30 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 31 | Forecast | Kerry J Forestal (D), Juanita Albright (R) | 17% | official |
| 32 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 33 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 34 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 35 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 36 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 37 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 38 | Forecast | Kacey Blundell (D), Greg Goode (R) | 4% | official |
| 39 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Jeff Ellington (R) | official | |
| 40 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 41 | Forecast | Ross Thomas (D), Michelle Davis (R) | <1% | official |
| 42 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 43 | Forecast | Byron E. Holland (D), Randall D. Maxwell (R) | 5% | official |
| 44 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 45 | Forecast | Nick Marshall (D), Larry Mahaney (Libertarian), Chris Garten (R) | 1% | official |
| 46 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Allissa Impink (D) | official | |
| 47 | Forecast | Ethan Sweetland-May (D), Gary Byrne (R) | <1% | official |
| 48 | Forecast | Bradley (Brad) Hochgesang (D), Daryl Schmitt (R) | <1% | official |
| 49 | Forecast | Cindi Clayton (D), Jim Tomes (R) | 4% | official |
| 50 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) |