Oklahoma · Governor
election 2026-11-03 · forecast as of 2026-10-01 · fundamentals only, no polls
Who is running?
Cyndi Munson (Democratic), Mike Mazzei (Republican).
The race, in brief
Oklahoma elects a governor on November 3, 2026, in an open race: Republican Kevin Stitt is term-limited. The state profile on file records a median household income of 63603.0, a college share of 0.3 and a white non-Hispanic share of 0.6.
The Republican nominee is Mike Mazzei, Oklahoma Secretary of Budget from 2019 to 2020, a state senator from 2004 to 2016 and a 2022 candidate for state treasurer. Trump endorsed him on May 29, 2026. In the June 16 primary Attorney General Gentner Drummond led with 26.3% to Mazzei's 26.0%, ahead of Chip Keating, Jake Merrick and Charles McCall; Mazzei won the August 25 runoff with 186,734 votes (50.3%) to Drummond's 184,681 (49.7%). The Democratic nominee is Cyndi Munson, minority leader of the Oklahoma House since 2022, who won her primary with 74.9% over Connie Johnson (22.3%) and Arya Azma (2.8%). Independents Robert Brooks Sr., Orlando Lynn Bush and Jerry Griffin have declared.
Every rater listed calls the race R: the Cook Political Report (September 11, 2025), Decision Desk HQ (September 23, 2026), Fox News (July 23, 2026), Inside Elections (August 28, 2025), RealClearPolitics (June 5, 2026), Sabato's Crystal Ball (September 4, 2025) and Silver Bulletin (August 28, 2026). The text records no general-election polling.
The facts carry no model forecast for this race.
The facts, each beside its sentence
Incumbent Republican governor Kevin Stitt is term-limited and cannot seek re-election to a third term in office.
Cyndi Munson, minority leader of the Oklahoma House of Representatives (2022–present) from the 85th district (2015–present)
Mike Mazzei, former Oklahoma Secretary of Budget (2019–2020), former state senator from the 25th district (2004–2016), and candidate for state treasurer in 2022
Cyndi Munson, minority leader of the Oklahoma House of Representatives (2022–present) from the 85th district (2015–present)
Mike Mazzei, former Oklahoma Secretary of Budget (2019–2020), former state senator from the 25th district (2004–2016), and candidate for state treasurer in 2022
candidate: Mike Mazzei votes: 186,734 percentage: 50.3
The Cook Political Report R September 11, 2025 Decision Desk HQ R September 23, 2026
May 29, 2026 Trump endorses Mazzei
CHS & Associates (R) August 2–4, 2026 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 44% 12%
On January 13, 2025, Drummond announced his campaign for governor. He was the first major candidate to enter the race
*Robert Brooks Sr., farmer *Orlando Lynn Bush *Jerry Griffin, former Tulsa school board member
Not in the source: No model forecast is on file (facts.forecast is empty).; The text has no general-election polls, no fundraising figures and no general-election endorsements.; Ratings are given as 'R' without Lean/Likely/Safe.; The text gives no prior gubernatorial or presidential results for the state.
Read from the district's section of Wikipedia's state page (CC BY-SA), archived as 9ca133410d00; written by claude-fable-5-1 (batch reader) on 2026-09-30 and checked mechanically: every quote occurs verbatim in the archived text, every number in the brief occurs in the inputs. No probability here is the reader's.
How it has voted for president
| Two-party margin | 2016 | 2020 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| President | R+38.6 | R+33.9 | R+34.9 |
A shift of 3.7 points toward the Democrats from 2016 to 2024. county returns summed; MEDSL county file (2016), an MIT-licensed county file (2020, checked against certified state results) and MEDSL precinct returns (2024). For a district split across counties this is an estimate, and where the state published the exact 2024 figure for these lines, that exact figure is the one the model uses.
The state in numbers
| Measure | State | Average state | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bachelor's degree or higher, 25+, 2023 | 27.8% | 34.0% | -6.2 pts |
| White, non-Hispanic, 2023 | 62.8% | 66.3% | -3.5 pts |
| Black, non-Hispanic, 2023 | 6.9% | 10.1% | -3.2 pts |
| Hispanic or Latino, 2023 | 12.3% | 12.9% | -0.6 pts |
| Asian, non-Hispanic, 2023 | 2.3% | 4.4% | -2.0 pts |
| Foreign-born, 2023 | 6.2% | 9.6% | -3.4 pts |
| Median age, 2023 | 36.9 | 39.1 | -2.18 |
| Median household income, 2023 | $63,603 | $77,633 | $-14,030 |
| Median home value, 2023 | $185,900 | $314,132 | $-128,232 |
| Owner-occupied homes, 2023 | 65.8% | 67.4% | -1.6 pts |
| Unemployment (ACS), 2023 | 4.9% | 4.8% | +0.1 pts |
| Federal government workers, 2023 | 4.7% | 3.0% | +1.7 pts |
| Work from home, 2023 | 8.5% | 12.3% | -3.8 pts |
| Households on SNAP, 2023 | 13.6% | 11.1% | +2.5 pts |
| Households with Social Security income, 2023 | 31.9% | 32.1% | -0.2 pts |
| Households with public assistance income, 2023 | 2.9% | 2.6% | +0.3 pts |
| Moved in from another state, past year, 2023 | 2.8% | 2.9% | -0.1 pts |
| Gini index, 2023 | 0.47 | 0.47 | +0.00 |
| Unemployment, latest month (BLS), 2026-07 | 4.6% | 4.0% | +0.6 pts |
| Change in unemployment, past 12 months, 2026-07 | +1.2 pts | -0.1 pts | +1.3 pts |
| Change since the last election (24 months), 2026-07 | +1.1 pts | -0.1 pts | +1.2 pts |
| Per-capita personal income (BEA), 2024 | $63,708 | $70,662 | $-6,954 |
| Per-capita income growth since 2019, nominal, 2024 | 32.2% | 32.4% | -0.1 pts |
| Government and other transfers, share of income, 2024 | 21.4% | 19.4% | +2.0 pts |
| Social Security, share of income, 2022 | 6.4% | 6.1% | +0.3 pts |
| Medicare, share of income, 2022 | 4.9% | 4.4% | +0.5 pts |
| Medicaid, share of income, 2022 | 3.5% | 3.8% | -0.3 pts |
| SNAP, share of income, 2022 | 0.9% | 0.6% | +0.4 pts |
| Earned Income Tax Credit, share of income, 2022 | 0.4% | 0.3% | +0.1 pts |
| Veterans' benefits, share of income, 2022 | 1.5% | 0.9% | +0.6 pts |
| Federal civilian jobs, share of all jobs, 2022 | 2.1% | 1.5% | +0.6 pts |
| Military jobs, share of all jobs, 2022 | 1.4% | 1.2% | +0.3 pts |
ACS 5-year state tables; BLS county unemployment and BEA county income, transfers and jobs summed to the state. Every figure is a named column of a named public-domain table, archived before it was read.
Has anyone polled it?
We hold no published poll of this general election. A search of aggregators, pollster releases, university polls and local news on 2 October found none (primary polls exist for some races and are not this contest). That is what we could find, not proof that no poll has been conducted. When one is published it enters the poll model and this page gains a nowcast.
Who is ahead, and by how much?
Margins and probabilities are for Cyndi Munson. With no polls, this is the fundamentals forecast alone: the state's own past results for this office and for president, its demographics, economy, religion and government employment, the candidates' incumbency, experience and money, and the national environment for this midterm.
How wide is the range?
In 8 of 10 simulations the margin falls between -28 and +6 points. The spread is the fundamentals model's own measured error (sd 13.4 points), not a guess: a forecast without polls is uncertain and is shown that way.
How accurate is a fundamentals-only forecast?
Tested on past races without letting it see them: across 175 Senate and governor races in 2016-2022 it missed the final margin by 8.3 points on average, and by 6.7 points across 35 races in 2024. Our poll-based forecast missed by 5.4 on the same races. Most races it is used for here are lopsided enough that an 8-point miss would not change the winner.
Where did every number come from?
Run ba236b2e, single_race_latent/0.8.1, as of 2026-10-01 23:02 UTC, basis: ground-up prior only, no polls.