North Dakota House
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
48 of 94 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 12 seats after November (80% range 10–15) and Republicans 82 (79–84).
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.2 | Nicole Derenne (R), Laurie Garbel (R), Alex Johnson (D), Steve Thoring (D) | 10% | wikipedia |
| 2 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican, Republican) | |||
| 3 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.0 | Blaine DesLauriers (R), Timothy Mihalick (R), Jeff Hoverson (R), Crystal Hendrickson (R), Tara Hiatt (D), Natalie McLaughlin (D) | <1% | wikipedia |
| 4A | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 4B | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 5 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.1 | Scott Louser (R), Roger Brabandt (R), Kyle Erickson (D), Zach Raknerud (D) | 7% | wikipedia |
| 6 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican, Republican) | |||
| 7 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.2 | Greg Vetter (R), Steve Sauter (R), Tiffany Williams-Rice (D), Jason Thoms (D) | 10% | wikipedia |
| 8 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican, Republican) | |||
| 9 | Decided: 2 Democratic, 0 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Duane Poitra (D), Collette Brown (D) | wikipedia | |
| 10 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican, Republican) | |||
| 11 | Decided: 2 Democratic, 0 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Stass Andrianova (D), Liz Conmy (D) | wikipedia | |
| 12 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican, Republican) | |||
| 13 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.1 | Austen Schauer (R), Jim Jonas (R), Maggi Gadaire (D), Brenda Jo Gillund (D) | 7% | wikipedia |
| 14 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican, Republican) | |||
| 15 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.0 | Kathy Frelich (R), Corry Kenner (R), Frances Drury (D) | <1% | wikipedia |
| 16 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican, Republican) | |||
| 17 | Decided: 0 Democratic, 2 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Mark Sanford (R), Reed Johnson (R), Don Aandal (nonpartisan) | wikipedia | |
| 18 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican, Republican) | |||
| 19 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.0 | Karen A Anderson (R), David Monson (R), Jolene L Hermanson (D), Lynnell Popowski (D) | <1% | wikipedia |
| 20 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican, Republican) | |||
| 21 | Decided: 2 Democratic, 0 Republican on the ballot for these seats | LaurieBeth Hager (D), Laura Dronen (D) | wikipedia | |
| 22 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican, Republican) | |||
| 23 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.0 | Corey Johnson (R), Dennis Nehring (R), Mark Casler (D), Michael A Steele (D) | <1% | wikipedia |
| 24 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican, Republican) | |||
| 25 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.4 | Alisa Mitskog (D), Terry Goerger (R), Kathy Skroch (R) | 43% | wikipedia |
| 26 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican, Republican) | |||
| 27 | Decided: 0 Democratic, 2 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Shawn Kessel (R), Greg Stemen (R) | wikipedia | |
| 28 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican, Republican) | |||
| 29 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.0 | Kevin Wolsky (R), Craig Headland (R), Dianne Norris (D) | <1% | wikipedia |
| 30 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican, Republican) | |||
| 31 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.0 | Dawson Holle (R), Karen Rohr (R), Tim Spilman (D), Rissa M Williams (D) | <1% | wikipedia |
| 32 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican, Republican) | |||
| 33 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.1 | Anna S (Garrett) Novak (R), Mike Heger (R), Kimball Banks (D), Stacie Kruckenberg (D) | 7% | wikipedia |
| 34 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican, Republican) | |||
| 35 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.1 | Bill Tveit (R), Karen Karls (R), Taylor Johnson (D), Lynne M Lafer-Halvorson (D) | 6% | wikipedia |
| 36 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican, Republican) | |||
| 37 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.2 | Bob Martinson (R), Kylan Klauzer (R), Susan Josephson (D), Shelley Lenz (D) | 10% | wikipedia |
| 38 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican, Republican) | |||
| 39 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.1 | Mike Schatz (R), Keith Kempenich (R), Sandy Baertsch (D) | 6% | wikipedia |
| 40 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican, Republican) | |||
| 41 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.3 | Mike Schatz (R), Jennifer Benson (R), Stacy Heidenreich (D), Chris Tiongson (D) | 28% | wikipedia |
| 42 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican, Republican) | |||
| 43 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 1.4 | Lukas Arthur Maughan (D), Tyler York (D), Jill T Chandler (R), Mike Holmes (R) | 84% | wikipedia |
| 44 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat, Democrat) | |||
| 45 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.1 | Eric J Murphy (R), Carrie McLeod (R), Don Lippert (D), Ross Lockhart (D) | 7% | wikipedia |
| 46 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican, Republican) | |||
| 47 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.2 | Scott Wagner (R), Jon Lee (R), Rosann Jacobs-Fode (D), Cole Montoya (D) | 11% | wikipedia |