Massachusetts House
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
>99%chance of a Democratic majority
<1%chance of a Republican majority
81seats for a majority, of 160
160 of 160 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 134 seats after November (80% range 131–137) and Republicans 25 (22–28). The other 1 seat is expected to go to independents, nonpartisan members or other parties.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
1st Barnstable1st Berkshire1st Bristol1st Essex1st Franklin1st Hampden1st Hampshire1st Middlesex1st Norfolk1st Plymouth1st Suffolk1st Worcester2nd Barnstable2nd Berkshire2nd Bristol2nd Essex2nd Franklin2nd Hampden2nd Hampshire2nd Middlesex2nd Norfolk2nd Plymouth2nd Suffolk2nd Worcester3rd Barnstable3rd Berkshire3rd Bristol3rd Essex3rd Hampden3rd Hampshire3rd Middlesex3rd Norfolk3rd Plymouth3rd Suffolk3rd Worcester4th Barnstable4th Bristol4th Essex4th Hampden4th Middlesex4th Norfolk4th Plymouth4th Suffolk4th Worcester5th Barnstable5th Bristol5th Essex5th Hampden5th Middlesex5th Norfolk5th Plymouth5th Suffolk5th Worcester6th Bristol6th Essex6th Hampden6th Middlesex6th Norfolk6th Plymouth6th Suffolk6th Worcester7th Bristol7th Essex7th Hampden7th Middlesex7th Norfolk7th Plymouth7th Suffolk7th Worcester8th Bristol8th Essex8th Hampden8th Middlesex8th Norfolk8th Plymouth8th Suffolk8th Worcester9th Bristol9th Essex9th Hampden9th Middlesex9th Norfolk9th Plymouth9th Suffolk9th Worcester10th Bristol10th Essex10th Hampden10th Middlesex10th Norfolk10th Plymouth10th Suffolk10th Worcester11th Bristol11th Essex11th Hampden11th Middlesex11th Norfolk11th Plymouth11th Suffolk11th Worcester12th Bristol12th Essex12th Hampden12th Middlesex12th Norfolk12th Plymouth12th Suffolk12th Worcester13th Bristol13th Essex13th Middlesex13th Norfolk13th Suffolk13th Worcester14th Bristol14th Essex14th Middlesex14th Norfolk14th Suffolk14th Worcester15th Essex15th Middlesex15th Norfolk15th Suffolk15th Worcester16th Essex16th Middlesex16th Suffolk16th Worcester17th Essex17th Middlesex17th Suffolk17th Worcester18th Essex18th Middlesex18th Suffolk18th Worcester19th Middlesex19th Suffolk19th Worcester20th Middlesex21st Middlesex22nd Middlesex23rd Middlesex24th Middlesex25th Middlesex26th Middlesex27th Middlesex28th Middlesex29th Middlesex30th Middlesex31st Middlesex32nd Middlesex33rd Middlesex34th Middlesex35th Middlesex36th Middlesex37th MiddlesexBarnstable, Dukes and Nantucket
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st Barnstable | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Christopher Lambton (D) | official | |
| 1st Berkshire | Decided: only a Democrat is running | John P. Barrett, III (D) | official | |
| 1st Bristol | Decided: only a Republican is running | Michael Sean Chaisson (R) | official | |
| 1st Essex | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Dawne Frances Shand (D) | official | |
| 1st Franklin | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Lora L. Wondolowski (D) | official | |
| 1st Hampden | Decided: only a Republican is running | Todd M. Smola (R) | official | |
| 1st Hampshire | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Lindsay N. Sabadosa (D) | official | |
| 1st Middlesex | Forecast | Margaret R. Scarsdale (D), Christopher M. Lyons (R) | 88% | official |
| 1st Norfolk | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Bruce J. Ayers (D) | official | |
| 1st Plymouth | Forecast | Michelle L. Badger (D), David Michael Golden, Jr. (R) | 91% | official |
| 1st Suffolk | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Adrian C. Madaro (D) | official | |
| 1st Worcester | Forecast | Krista Suzanne Ferrante (D), Stephanie R. Mulroy (R) | 5% | official |
| 2nd Barnstable | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Kip A. Diggs (D) | official | |
| 2nd Berkshire | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Tricia Farley-Bouvier (D) | official | |
| 2nd Bristol | Decided: only a Democrat is running | James Kimball Hawkins (D) | official | |
| 2nd Essex | Forecast | Kristin Elena Kassner (D), Daniel James Kelly (R) | 96% | official |
| 2nd Franklin | Decided: no Democrat or Republican is running | Susannah Whipps (independent) | wikipedia | |
| 2nd Hampden | Forecast | Brian M. Ashe (D), Peter Warren (R) | 96% | official |
| 2nd Hampshire | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Homar Gomez (D) | official | |
| 2nd Middlesex | Decided: only a Democrat is running | James Arciero (D) | official | |
| 2nd Norfolk | Forecast | Tackey Chan (D), Sharon Marie Cintolo (R) | >99% | official |
| 2nd Plymouth | Forecast | Sarah G. Hewins (D), John Robert Gaskey (R) | <1% | official |
| 2nd Suffolk | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Daniel J. Ryan (D) | official | |
| 2nd Worcester | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Michael Joseph Nicholson (D) | official | |
| 3rd Barnstable | Forecast | Jack Peter Richardson (D), David T. Vieira (R) | 10% | official |
| 3rd Berkshire | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Leigh Susan Davis (D) | official | |
| 3rd Bristol | Forecast | Lisa M. Field (D), Lawrence Joseph Quintal (R) | 95% | official |
| 3rd Essex | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Andres Xavier Vargas (D) | official | |
| 3rd Hampden | Forecast | Thomas D. Hendrickson (D), Nicholas A. Boldyga (R) | 2% | official |
| 3rd Hampshire | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Mindy Domb (D) | official | |
| 3rd Middlesex | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Kate Hogan (D) | official | |
| 3rd Norfolk | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Ronald Mariano (D) | official | |
| 3rd Plymouth | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Joan Meschino (D) | official | |
| 3rd Suffolk | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Aaron M. Michlewitz (D) | official | |
| 3rd Worcester | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Michael P. Kushmerek (D) | official | |
| 4th Barnstable | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Hadley Luddy (D) | official | |
| 4th Bristol | Decided: only a Republican is running | Steven S. Howitt (R) | official | |
| 4th Essex | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Estela A. Reyes (D) | official | |
| 4th Hampden | Forecast | Colby Walshe Hoffman (D), Kelly W. Pease (R) | 4% | official |
| 4th Middlesex | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Danielle W. Gregoire (D) | official | |
| 4th Norfolk | Decided: only a Democrat is running | James Michael Murphy (D) | official | |
| 4th Plymouth | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Patrick Joseph Kearney (D) | official | |
| 4th Suffolk | Decided: only a Democrat is running | David Biele (D) | official | |
| 4th Worcester | Forecast | Natalie Marie Higgins (D), Josh William Bowdridge (R) | 99% | official |
| 5th Barnstable | Decided: only a Republican is running | Steven G. Xiarhos (R) | official | |
| 5th Bristol | Forecast | Jamison D. Souza (D), Justin Thurber (R) | 34% | official |
| 5th Essex | Forecast | Andrew Francis Robert Tarr (D), Christina Delisio (R) | 98% | official |
| 5th Hampden | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Patricia A. Duffy (D) | official | |
| 5th Middlesex | Forecast | David Paul Linsky (D), Luisa A. Cestari (R) | 98% | official |
| 5th Norfolk | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Mark J. Cusack (D) | official | |
| 5th Plymouth | Forecast | Lori Childs (D), David F. Decoste (R) | 3% | official |
| 5th Suffolk | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Christopher J. Worrell (D) | official | |
| 5th Worcester | Decided: only a Republican is running | Donald Roger Berthiaume, Jr. (R) | official | |
| 6th Bristol | Forecast | Carole A. Fiola (D), Robert G. Anctil (R) | 95% | official |
| 6th Essex | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Hannah Louise Bowen (D) | official | |
| 6th Hampden | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Michael James Finn (D) | official | |
| 6th Middlesex | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Priscila S. Sousa (D) | official | |
| 6th Norfolk | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Lisa R. Lopez (D) | official | |
| 6th Plymouth | Forecast | Jessica Marie Rushing (D), Kenneth Sweezey (R) | 26% | official |
| 6th Suffolk | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Russell Earl Holmes (D) | official | |
| 6th Worcester | Forecast | Jeanne Renaud Costello (D), John J. Marsi, Jr. (R) | 1% | official |
| 7th Bristol | Forecast | Alan Silvia (D), Talos D. Farris (R) | 94% | official |
| 7th Essex | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Manny Cruz (D) | official | |
| 7th Hampden | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Aaron L. Saunders (D) | official | |
| 7th Middlesex | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jack Patrick Lewis (D) | official | |
| 7th Norfolk | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Richard Gerard Wells, Jr. (D) | official | |
| 7th Plymouth | Forecast | Rosemary Aahanna-Hill (D), Alyson M. Sullivan-Almeida (R) | 3% | official |
| 7th Suffolk | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Chynah Tyler (D) | official | |
| 7th Worcester | Forecast | Nicholas Lazzaro (D), Paul K. Frost (R) | 3% | official |
| 8th Bristol | Forecast | Steven J. Ouellette (D), Jesse W. St. Gelais (R) | 87% | official |
| 8th Essex | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jennifer Wb Armini (D) | official | |
| 8th Hampden | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Shirley B. Arriaga (D) | official | |
| 8th Middlesex | Decided: only a Democrat is running | James Arena-DeRosa (D) | official | |
| 8th Norfolk | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Ted Philips (D) | official | |
| 8th Plymouth | Forecast | Dennis C. Gallagher (D), John Edward Norris (R) | 85% | official |
| 8th Suffolk | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jay D. Livingstone (D) | official | |
| 8th Worcester | Decided: only a Republican is running | Michael J. Soter (R) | official | |
| 9th Bristol | Forecast | Edward M. Pacheco (D), Chester M. Tam (R) | 92% | official |
| 9th Essex | Forecast | Peter Meaney (D), Donald H. Wong (R) | 3% | official |
| 9th Hampden | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Orlando Ramos (D) | official | |
| 9th Middlesex | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Thomas M. Stanley (D) | official | |
| 9th Norfolk | Forecast | Thomas R. Melville (D), Marcus S. Vaughn (R) | 6% | official |
| 9th Plymouth | Forecast | Bridget Marie Plouffe (D), Lawrence Peter Novak (R) | >99% | official |
| 9th Suffolk | Decided: only a Democrat is running | John Francis Moran (D) | official | |
| 9th Worcester | Decided: only a Republican is running | David Kent Muradian, Jr. (R) | official | |
| 10th Bristol | Forecast | Mark D. Sylvia (D), Brendalee A. Smith (R) | 92% | official |
| 10th Essex | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Daniel Francis Cahill (D) | official | |
| 10th Hampden | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Carlos Gonzalez (D) | official | |
| 10th Middlesex | Decided: only a Democrat is running | John J. Lawn, Jr. (D) | official | |
| 10th Norfolk | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jeffrey N. Roy (D) | official | |
| 10th Plymouth | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Michelle Marie Dubois (D) | official | |
| 10th Suffolk | Decided: only a Democrat is running | William MaGgregor (D) | official | |
| 10th Worcester | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Brian W. Murray (D) | official | |
| 11th Bristol | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Christopher Hendricks (D) | official | |
| 11th Essex | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Sean Daniel Reid (D) | official | |
| 11th Hampden | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Bud L. Williams (D) | official | |
| 11th Middlesex | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Amy Mah Sangiolo (D) | official | |
| 11th Norfolk | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Paul McMurtry (D) | official | |
| 11th Plymouth | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Rita A. Mendes (D) | official | |
| 11th Suffolk | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Judith A. Garcia (D) | official | |
| 11th Worcester | Decided: only a Republican is running | Hannah Elizabeth Kane (R) | official | |
| 12th Bristol | Decided: only a Republican is running | Norman J. Orrall (R) | official | |
| 12th Essex | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Thomas P. Walsh (D) | official | |
| 12th Hampden | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Angelo J. Puppolo, Jr. (D) | official | |
| 12th Middlesex | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Greg Schwartz (D) | official | |
| 12th Norfolk | Decided: only a Democrat is running | John Healy Rogers (D) | official | |
| 12th Plymouth | Forecast | Kathleen R. LaNatra (D), Eric J. Meschino (R) | 94% | official |
| 12th Suffolk | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Brandy Fluker Reid (D) | official | |
| 12th Worcester | Forecast | Meghan Kilcoyne (D), Lisa K. Mair (R) | 96% | official |
| 13th Bristol | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Antonio F.d. Cabral (D) | official | |
| 13th Essex | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Sally Patrice Kerans (D) | official | |
| 13th Middlesex | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Ravi Simon (D) | official | |
| 13th Norfolk | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Joshua Brian Tarsky (D) | official | |
| 13th Suffolk | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Daniel J. Hunt (D) | official | |
| 13th Worcester | Decided: only a Democrat is running | John J. Mahoney, Jr. (D) | official | |
| 14th Bristol | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Adam J. Scanlon (D) | official | |
| 14th Essex | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Adrianne Pusateri Ramos (D) | official | |
| 14th Middlesex | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Simon Cataldo (D) | official | |
| 14th Norfolk | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Alice Hanlon Peisch (D) | official | |
| 14th Suffolk | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Rob Consalvo (D) | official | |
| 14th Worcester | Decided: only a Democrat is running | James J. O'Day (D) | official | |
| 15th Essex | Forecast | Ryan M. Hamilton (D), Ronald L. Heiseler, III (R) | 95% | official |
| 15th Middlesex | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Michelle Ciccolo (D) | official | |
| 15th Norfolk | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Tommy Vitolo (D) | official | |
| 15th Suffolk | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Samantha Montaño (D) | official | |
| 15th Worcester | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Mary S. Keefe (D) | official | |
| 16th Essex | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Celina A. Reyes (D) | official | |
| 16th Middlesex | Forecast | Lorena G. Betts (D), Karla J. Miller (R) | 95% | official |
| 16th Suffolk | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jessica Ann Giannino (D) | official | |
| 16th Worcester | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Daniel M. Donahue (D) | official | |
| 17th Essex | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Frank A. Moran (D) | official | |
| 17th Middlesex | Decided: only a Democrat is running | John Drinkwater (D) | official | |
| 17th Suffolk | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Kevin G. Honan (D) | official | |
| 17th Worcester | Decided: only a Democrat is running | David Henry Argosky LeBoeuf (D) | official | |
| 18th Essex | Forecast | Connor A. Murray (D), Christopher C. Shepley (R) | 96% | official |
| 18th Middlesex | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Tara Hong (D) | official | |
| 18th Suffolk | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Michael J. Moran (D) | official | |
| 18th Worcester | Forecast | Jenifer Heck (D), Joseph D. McKenna (R) | 2% | official |
| 19th Middlesex | Decided: only a Democrat is running | David Allen Robertson (D) | official | |
| 19th Suffolk | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jeffrey Rosario Turco (D) | official | |
| 19th Worcester | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Kate Donaghue (D) | official | |
| 20th Middlesex | Forecast | Joseph Markey (D), Trevor David Currier (R) | 5% | official |
| 21st Middlesex | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Kenneth Ira Gordon (D) | official | |
| 22nd Middlesex | Forecast | Daniel Ronald Darris-O'Connor (D), Marc T. Lombardo (R) | 3% | official |
| 23rd Middlesex | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Sean Garballey (D) | official | |
| 24th Middlesex | Decided: only a Democrat is running | David M. Rogers (D) | official | |
| 25th Middlesex | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Marjorie C. Decker (D) | official | |
| 26th Middlesex | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Mike Connolly (D) | official | |
| 27th Middlesex | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Ben Ewen-Campen (D) | official | |
| 28th Middlesex | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Joseph W. McGonagle, Jr. (D) | official | |
| 29th Middlesex | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Steven Charles Owens (D) | official | |
| 30th Middlesex | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Richard M. Haggerty (D) | official | |
| 31st Middlesex | Forecast | Michael Seamus Day (D), Stephen G. Ternullo (R) | 97% | official |
| 32nd Middlesex | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Leila Bhatti Migliorelli (D) | official | |
| 33rd Middlesex | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Steven Ultrino (D) | official | |
| 34th Middlesex | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Will Mbah (D) | official | |
| 35th Middlesex | Forecast | Paul J. Donato, Sr. (D), James C. Seibel (R) | 98% | official |
| 36th Middlesex | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Colleen M. Garry (D) | official | |
| 37th Middlesex | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Danillo A. Sena (D) | official | |
| Barnstable, Dukes and Nantucket | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Thomas W. Moakley (D) | official |