Missouri Senate
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
17 of 34 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 10 seats after November (80% range 10–12) and Republicans 24 (22–24).
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 2 | Forecast | Nick Schroer (R), Susan Shumway (D) | 1% | official |
| 3 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 4 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Gina Mitten (D) | official | |
| 5 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 6 | Forecast | Jake Vogel (R), J. Don Salcedo (D) | 6% | official |
| 7 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 8 | Forecast | Jon Patterson (R), Keri Ingle (D) | 14% | official |
| 9 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 10 | Forecast | Mike Deering (R), John Wells (D) | 5% | official |
| 11 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 12 | Forecast | Rusty Black (R), Judy McNeece (D) | <1% | official |
| 13 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 14 | Forecast | Vernon Norman (R), Raychel Proudie (D) | 94% | official |
| 15 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 16 | Forecast | Bill Hardwick (R), Virginia Staabs (D) | <1% | official |
| 17 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 18 | Forecast | Greg Sharpe (R), Nick Miller (D) | <1% | official |
| 19 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 20 | Forecast | Lori Rook (R), Sean Falconer (D) | 5% | official |
| 21 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 22 | Forecast | Jim Avery (R), Jeff Abney (D) | <1% | official |
| 23 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 24 | Forecast | LaVanna Wrobley (R), Tracy McCreery (D) | 93% | official |
| 25 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 26 | Forecast | Ben Brown (R), Vicky Wors (D) | <1% | official |
| 27 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 28 | Forecast | Sam Alexander (R), Mike McCaffree (D) | 5% | official |
| 29 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 30 | Forecast | Melanie Stinnett (R), Betsy Fogle (D), Cecil Ince (Libertarian) | 8% | official |
| 31 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 32 | Forecast | Jill Carter (R), Imma J Curl (D) | 4% | official |
| 33 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 34 | Forecast | Mike Jones (R), Shereka Barnes (D) | 5% | official |