FL-1 · House

The district, in brief

Florida's 1st is on a map first used in 2026; the text says nothing about where the new lines run. The incumbent is Republican Jimmy Patronis, who assumed office on April 2, 2025 after winning the special election that followed Matt Gaetz's resignation on November 13, 2024. The text gives no vote share for that special election.

Patronis is the Republican nominee, having won the primary with 71.1% (62,965 votes) over John Frankman (19.5%) and Douglas C. Chico (9.4%). The Democratic nominee is Gay Valimont, an athletic trainer who was the party's nominee for this district in 2024 and in the 2025 special election; one Democrat, Henry Barnes, withdrew, and no primary result is given for her. An independent, Tyler Davis, is also on the ballot. As of July 29, 2026 Patronis had raised $3,789,738, spent $2,854,437 and had $935,302 on hand; Valimont had raised $174,309 with $21,814 on hand.

Every rater listed calls the seat R: Decision Desk HQ (July 14, 2026), the Cook Political Report (February 6, 2025), Inside Elections (May 5, 2026), Sabato's Crystal Ball (April 10, 2025) and The Economist (May 6, 2026). The text records no poll.

A paragraph quoting a model forecast from the day this brief was written is omitted; the current forecast is at the top of this page.

The facts, each beside its sentence

Not in the source: The text gives no vote share for the 2025 special election or for the 2024 general election.; The text describes nothing about the new district lines, and gives no presidential results on any lines.; No Democratic primary result is given; Valimont is listed as nominee with one withdrawn challenger.; The text says nothing about Tyler Davis beyond his name.; No poll is in the text, and the model's basis says no district polls.; No general-election ratings finer than 'R' are given (no Lean/Likely/Safe).

Read from the district's section of Wikipedia's state page (CC BY-SA), archived as 27e2e54e6981; written by claude-fable-5-1 (batch reader) on 2026-09-30 and checked mechanically: every quote occurs verbatim in the archived text, every number in the brief occurs in the inputs. No probability here is the reader's.

Who holds the seat now

Jimmy Patronis (Republican), in this chamber since 2025, 1 term. Committees: House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure; House Committee on Small Business.

From the congress-legislators dataset (CC0), archived as ae8cb9477c48. For a Senate race this lists both of the state's senators; the one whose term ends in the election year holds the seat on the ballot. For a House district redrawn for 2026 it is the member elected under the old lines with this number, who may be running elsewhere; the dossier above names who is running here.

How it has voted for president

A shift of 2.5 points toward the Democrats from 2016 to 2024. county returns placed on the current lines by 2020 block population; MEDSL county file (2016), an MIT-licensed county file (2020, checked against certified state results) and MEDSL precinct returns (2024). For a district split across counties this is an estimate, and where the state published the exact 2024 figure for these lines, that exact figure is the one the model uses.

Who are the voters?

Of about 534,302 adults 25 and over. In 2020 the district voted 33.6% Democratic (two-party) for president. With the same preferences and a 2022-style midterm turnout, it would vote 33.8% Democratic: the midterm electorate alone moves the margin 0.5 points toward Democrats. Group shares are estimated from how results vary across the state's census tracts (ecological inference, anchored to Pew's 2020 validated-voter figures) and calibrated to this district's actual 2020 vote; turnout is the Census survey's state rate by race and national rate by education, whose state samples carry margins of several points.

Not answered here: how each group will vote in 2026. These are 2020 preferences; this profile is description, not yet an input to the forecast.

The money

FEC bulk candidate summaries through August 07, 2026; $2,234,947 of independent expenditures for or against these candidates this cycle (FEC Schedule E, types 24E and 24A), which is the parties' and outside groups' own revealed view of whether this seat is in play.

The district in numbers

ACS 5-year 2023, assembled from census tracts by the 2020 population of their blocks inside the current lines, because the Bureau has not tabulated these lines; medians are population-weighted means of tract medians. Unemployment is the BLS county series placed on the district by block population, not seasonally adjusted, so changes are same-month comparisons. Income, transfers and jobs are BEA county accounts placed the same way, compared with the average district. Every other figure is a named column of a named table in the Bureau's summary file, archived before it was read. This is what a reader knows about a district before looking at a poll; the model does not yet use it, and whether it should is a registered question.

Who is favoured, and by how much?

The 90% interval runs from -41.8 to -11.3 points, D-R. It is wide because this district has never been polled.

What is this built on?

A model trained on every contested House race 2012-2024 predicts this district's lean from its own record: presidential and House results on the current lines, incumbency, both candidates' prior offices, outside and party money before 1 October, demographics and public-assistance shares from the Census release before the election, local unemployment and income, and religious tradition. The national margin comes from presidential approval, the economy, the midterm penalty and the generic ballot corrected for its measured lean. Draws share national and state errors, so the seat total and this district come from the same simulation.

Not answered here: district polls, which are not yet folded in.

Why does the model say this?

Each figure is how far this district's predicted lean moves when that one feature is set to the typical value across 2026 districts, everything else held: 2024 presidential lean (R+35.9): 27.9 pts toward the Republican; 2024 House lean: 5.8 pts toward the Republican; religion: mainline (7.1%): 0.5 pts toward the Democrat; foreign born share (6.6%): 0.4 pts toward the Democrat; experience gap (-4 levels, D minus R): 0.4 pts toward the Republican.

How sure is it, and of what?

Total sd 9.22 points, made of the seat's own volatility 91%, correlated polling error 9%. The decomposition is stored with the forecast rather than reconstructed, so a probability whose dominant input is a placeholder is visibly that.

Not answered here: a nowcast. 'If ballots were cast today' needs something that observes today, and for a House district nothing does. Publishing the election-day figure under both labels would make one forecast look like two.

How was this number made?

Run 6f211e6f-2bdc-4dda-8f72-81fc628dab0b, house_district_prior/0.2.0, as of 2026-10-02. Promoted by a pre-registered gate: on 2016-2022 its Brier score was 0.036 against 0.049 for the previous method, and on a single 2024 run 0.023 against 0.032 (experiments/district_gate_result.md, with an independent review).