MO-2 · House

The district, in brief

Missouri's 2nd district is anchored by the southern and western suburbs of St. Louis County, including Wildwood, Chesterfield, Ballwin and Kirkwood, plus Franklin County and others. The lines are the map first used in 2022 and are not redrawn for this cycle.

The incumbent is Republican Ann Wagner, re-elected with 54.5% of the vote in 2024. She won her primary with 73.8% after former state senator Bill Eigel withdrew to run for St. Charles County Executive. The Democratic nominee is Fred Wellman, a podcast host, who won his primary with 45.8% over Joan VonDras (43.0%) and Tim Bilash (11.1%). Libertarian Brandon Coulter Daugherty is also on the ballot. Wagner had raised $3,528,094 with $4,227,396 on hand as of July 15, 2026; Wellman had raised $808,789 with $246,602 on hand as of March 31, 2026.

The facts record Republican two-party margins of 12.37 points in 2024 and 12.09 in 2022. Every rater listed calls the seat R: Decision Desk HQ (July 14, 2026), the Cook Political Report (September 11, 2026), Inside Elections (March 7, 2025) and Sabato's Crystal Ball (September 29, 2026). Two head-to-head polls are recorded: Remington Research Group (R), September 14–15, 2026, 565 likely voters, Wagner 43%, Wellman 42%; and FM3 Research (D), May 26–31, 2026, 600 likely voters, Wagner 44%, Wellman 41%. Public Policy Polling (D), May 21–22, 2025, had Wagner 46% against a generic Democrat 47%.

A paragraph quoting a model forecast from the day this brief was written is omitted; the current forecast is at the top of this page.

The facts, each beside its sentence

Not in the source: The text gives no presidential vote shares for the district.; Ratings are given only as 'R' with no Lean/Likely/Safe gradation.; The text's polls (Remington, FM3, PPP) are not in the model's basis, which says no district polls.; The Remington poll lists no margin of error.; Chuck Summers appears only in the Democratic fundraising table; the text does not list him as a candidate.; Endorsement sections are empty.

Read from the district's section of Wikipedia's state page (CC BY-SA), archived as 74160a6d1921; written by claude-fable-5-1 (batch reader) on 2026-09-30 and checked mechanically: every quote occurs verbatim in the archived text, every number in the brief occurs in the inputs. No probability here is the reader's.

Who holds the seat now

Ann Wagner (Republican), in this chamber since 2013, 7 terms. Committees: House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence; House Committee on Financial Services.

From the congress-legislators dataset (CC0), archived as ae8cb9477c48. For a Senate race this lists both of the state's senators; the one whose term ends in the election year holds the seat on the ballot. For a House district redrawn for 2026 it is the member elected under the old lines with this number, who may be running elsewhere; the dossier above names who is running here.

How it has voted for president

A shift of 4.4 points toward the Democrats from 2016 to 2024. county returns placed on the current lines by 2020 block population; MEDSL county file (2016), an MIT-licensed county file (2020, checked against certified state results) and MEDSL precinct returns (2024). For a district split across counties this is an estimate, and where the state published the exact 2024 figure for these lines, that exact figure is the one the model uses.

Who are the voters?

Of about 538,035 adults 25 and over. In 2020 the district voted 46.1% Democratic (two-party) for president. With the same preferences and a 2022-style midterm turnout, it would vote 47.2% Democratic: the midterm electorate alone moves the margin 2.3 points toward Democrats. Group shares are estimated from how results vary across the state's census tracts (ecological inference, anchored to Pew's 2020 validated-voter figures) and calibrated to this district's actual 2020 vote; turnout is the Census survey's state rate by race and national rate by education, whose state samples carry margins of several points.

Not answered here: how each group will vote in 2026. These are 2020 preferences; this profile is description, not yet an input to the forecast.

The money

FEC bulk candidate summaries through July 15, 2026; $72 of independent expenditures for or against these candidates this cycle (FEC Schedule E, types 24E and 24A), which is the parties' and outside groups' own revealed view of whether this seat is in play.

The district in numbers

ACS 5-year 2023, the Census Bureau's own tabulation of this district (118th Congress lines). Unemployment is the BLS county series placed on the district by block population, not seasonally adjusted, so changes are same-month comparisons. Income, transfers and jobs are BEA county accounts placed the same way, compared with the average district. Every other figure is a named column of a named table in the Bureau's summary file, archived before it was read. This is what a reader knows about a district before looking at a poll; the model does not yet use it, and whether it should is a registered question.

Who is favoured, and by how much?

The 90% interval runs from -17.4 to +10.9 points, D-R. It is wide because this district has never been polled.

What is this built on?

A model trained on every contested House race 2012-2024 predicts this district's lean from its own record: presidential and House results on the current lines, incumbency, both candidates' prior offices, outside and party money before 1 October, demographics and public-assistance shares from the Census release before the election, local unemployment and income, and religious tradition. The national margin comes from presidential approval, the economy, the midterm penalty and the generic ballot corrected for its measured lean. Draws share national and state errors, so the seat total and this district come from the same simulation.

Not answered here: district polls, which are not yet folded in.

Why does the model say this?

Each figure is how far this district's predicted lean moves when that one feature is set to the typical value across 2026 districts, everything else held: experience gap (-4 levels, D minus R): 3.1 pts toward the Republican; total outside/party money: 1.4 pts toward the Democrat; PAC money balance: 0.7 pts toward the Republican; asian share (4.7%): 0.7 pts toward the Democrat; hispanic share (3.3%): 0.5 pts toward the Democrat.

How sure is it, and of what?

Total sd 8.57 points, made of the seat's own volatility 89%, correlated polling error 11%. The decomposition is stored with the forecast rather than reconstructed, so a probability whose dominant input is a placeholder is visibly that.

Not answered here: a nowcast. 'If ballots were cast today' needs something that observes today, and for a House district nothing does. Publishing the election-day figure under both labels would make one forecast look like two.

How was this number made?

Run 6f211e6f-2bdc-4dda-8f72-81fc628dab0b, house_district_prior/0.2.0, as of 2026-10-02. Promoted by a pre-registered gate: on 2016-2022 its Brier score was 0.036 against 0.049 for the previous method, and on a single 2024 run 0.023 against 0.032 (experiments/district_gate_result.md, with an independent review).