Election LabU.S. forecasts, with every number traced to its run

Latest polls

864 polls in 141 races, newest first. Every poll we hold is listed; none is dropped for being inconvenient.

Newest 60 polls

RaceDatesPollsterSampleResultMargin
Maine SenateSep 27–Oct 1Wedgewood Polls400 LVJackson 52 (D) · Collins 48 (R)D+4
Maine SenateSep 28–Sep 30co/efficientpartisan sponsor1240 LVCollins 48 (R) · Jackson 46 (D)R+2
Alaska SenateSep 28–Sep 30Quantus Insightspartisan sponsor758 LVSullivan 46 (R) · Peltola 46 (D)Even
Iowa SenateSep 28–Sep 30Rasmussen Reportspartisan sponsor1048 LVTurek 47 (D) · Hinson 43 (R)D+4
Michigan SenateSep 28–Sep 30Trafalgar Grouppartisan sponsor1085 LVEl-Sayed 47 (D) · Rogers 45 (R)D+2
Iowa SenateSep 28–Sep 29Quantus Insightspartisan sponsor738 LVHinson 47 (R) · Turek 46 (D)R+1
Minnesota SenateSep 28–Sep 29InsiderAdvantagepartisan sponsor1200 LVFlanagan 46 (D) · Tafoya 45 (R)D+1
North Carolina SenateSep 27–Sep 29Big Data Poll642 LVCooper 47 (D) · Whatley 35 (R)D+12
Ohio SenateSep 28–Sep 29InsiderAdvantagepartisan sponsor1200 LVBrown 44 (D) · Husted 43 (R)D+1
South Carolina SenateSep 28–Sep 29InsiderAdvantagepartisan sponsor1200 LVGraham 46 (R) · Andrews 45 (D)R+1
Texas SenateSep 28–Sep 29Rasmussen Reportspartisan sponsor1128 LVTalarico 46 (D) · Paxton 45 (R)D+1
Iowa SenateSep 24–Sep 28Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Researchpartisan sponsor1008 LVTurek 49 (D) · Hinson 47 (R)D+2
Michigan SenateSep 24–Sep 28Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Researchpartisan sponsor1028 LVEl-Sayed 50 (D) · Rogers 49 (R)D+1
Texas SenateSep 24–Sep 28Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Researchpartisan sponsor881 LVTalarico 51 (D) · Paxton 49 (R)D+2
Michigan SenateSep 24–Sep 27Marist University1235 RVEl-Sayed 51 (D) · Rogers 44 (R)D+7
Ohio SenateSep 23–Sep 27Suffolk University500 LVBrown 47 (D) · Husted 44 (R)D+3
Ohio SenateSep 24–Sep 27Marist University1298 RVBrown 51 (D) · Husted 43 (R)D+8
Texas SenateSep 24–Sep 27Pulse Decision Sciencepartisan sponsor800 LVPaxton 48 (R) · Talarico 45 (D)R+3
Florida SenateSep 25–Sep 27Change Researchpartisan sponsor1063 LVMoody 48 (R) · Nixon 47 (D)R+1
New Hampshire SenateSep 26–Sep 27Trafalgar Grouppartisan sponsor1082 LVPappas 47 (D) · Sununu 41 (R)D+6
South Dakota SenateSep 24–Sep 27Zenith Research500 LVRounds 44 (R) · Bengs 38 (I)R+6
Iowa SenateSep 23–Sep 26Big Data Pollpartisan sponsor— Turek 46 (D) · Hinson 42 (R)D+4
Texas SenateSep 24–Sep 26Big Data Poll698 LVTalarico 47 (D) · Paxton 45 (R)D+2
South Carolina SenateSep 23–Sep 25Trafalgar Grouppartisan sponsor1087 LVGraham 43 (R) · Andrews 42 (D)R+1
New Hampshire SenateSep 23–Sep 25Trafalgar Grouppartisan sponsor1090 LVPappas 46 (D) · Sununu 42 (R)D+4
Alabama SenateSep 21–Sep 25RMG Researchpartisan sponsor800 RVMoore 54 (R) · Wess 33 (D)R+21
Kansas SenateSep 22–Sep 24Wedgewood Polls500 LVHamilton 50 (D) · Marshall 48 (R)D+2
MT-1Sep 19–Sep 24American Pulse314 LVFlint 46 (R) · Forstag 45 (D) · Sheedy 5 (I)R+1
OH-15Sep 22–Sep 24Hart Researchpartisan sponsor500 LVLeonard 46 (D) · Carey 45 (R)D+1
Michigan SenateSep 21–Sep 23co/efficientpartisan sponsor843 LVEl-Sayed 45 (D) · Rogers 45 (R)Even
Ohio SenateSep 21–Sep 23Quantus Insightspartisan sponsor695 LVHusted 47 (R) · Brown 47 (D)Even
Michigan GovernorSep 21–Sep 23co/efficientpartisan sponsor843 LVBenson 47 (D) · James 44 (R)D+3
NY-23Sep 22–Sep 23Public Policy Pollingpartisan sponsor626 LVLangworthy 52 (R) · Gies 35 (D)R+17
OH-9Sep 22–Sep 23DCCC Analytics Department481 LVKaptur 48 (D) · Merrin 48 (R)Even
UT-2Sep 21–Sep 23Crosby for Congresspartisan sponsor657 LVCrosby 35 (D) · Moore 32 (R)D+3
WI-1Sep 21–Sep 23DCCC Analytics Department495 LVSteil 48 (R) · Berman 48 (D)Even
Maine SenateSep 15–Sep 22New York Times/Siena University619 LVCollins 49 (R) · Jackson 46 (D)R+3
Michigan SenateSep 15–Sep 22New York Times/Siena University600 LVEl-Sayed 49 (D) · Rogers 44 (R)D+5
North Carolina SenateSep 21–Sep 22Quantus Insightspartisan sponsor686 LVCooper 48 (D) · Whatley 43 (R)D+5
New Hampshire SenateSep 15–Sep 22New York Times/Siena University600 LVPappas 50 (D) · Sununu 45 (R)D+5
Pennsylvania GovernorSep 15–Sep 22The New York Times/The Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena University615 LVShapiro 58 (D) · Garrity 38 (R)D+20
Maine SenateSep 17–Sep 21University of New Hampshire1312 LVJackson 51 (D) · Collins 47 (R)D+4
Florida SenateSep 14–Sep 21Stetson University830 LVMoody 51 (R) · Nixon 40 (D)R+11
Florida SenateSep 20–Sep 21InsiderAdvantagepartisan sponsor600 LVMoody 49 (R) · Nixon 42 (D)R+7
New Hampshire SenateSep 17–Sep 21University of New Hampshire1418 LVPappas 50 (D) · Sununu 42 (R)D+8
Massachusetts SenateSep 17–Sep 21University of New Hampshire564 LVMarkey 53 (D) · Deaton 30 (R)D+23
Rhode Island SenateSep 17–Sep 21University of New Hampshire595 LVReed 53 (D) · McKay 33 (R)D+20
Connecticut GovernorSep 17–Sep 21University of New Hampshire540 LVLamont 55 (D) · Fazio 38 (R)D+17
Maine GovernorSep 17–Sep 21University of New Hampshire1312 LVPingree 48 (D) · Charles 40 (R) · Bennett 5 (I)D+8
Massachusetts GovernorSep 17–Sep 21University of New Hampshire564 LVHealey 54 (D) · Minogue 38 (R)D+16
New Hampshire GovernorSep 17–Sep 21University of New Hampshire1418 LVAyotte 47 (R) · Warmington 43 (D)R+4
Rhode Island GovernorSep 17–Sep 21University of New Hampshire598 LVFoulkes 44 (D) · Block 25 (I) · Guckian 17 (R)D+19
Vermont GovernorSep 17–Sep 21University of New Hampshire829 LVJanoo 49 (D) · Scott 43 (R)D+6
ME-1Sep 17–Sep 21University of New Hampshire679 LVPingree 57 (D) · Russell 35 (R)D+22
ME-2Sep 17–Sep 21University of New Hampshire627 LVDunlap 51 (D) · LePage 45 (R)D+6
MN-1Sep 18–Sep 21GBAOpartisan sponsor500 LVJohnson 47 (D) · Finstad 46 (R)D+1
NH-1Sep 17–Sep 21University of New Hampshire711 LVShaheen 46 (D) · DiLorenzo 42 (R)D+4
NH-2Sep 17–Sep 21University of New Hampshire702 LVGoodlander 56 (D) · Williams 35 (R)D+21
Iowa SenateSep 17–Sep 20Marist College1050 RVTurek 50 (D) · Hinson 42 (R)D+8
Michigan SenateSep 16–Sep 20Suffolk University500 LVEl-Sayed 47 (D) · Rogers 40 (R)D+7

Polling averages by race

Simple average: the plain mean Democrat-minus-Republican margin of the race's polls in the 30 days before its newest one. Adjusted average: the nowcast's estimate of the race today -- polls weighted by recency and size, corrected for each pollster's measured lean and for partisan sponsors. Where they differ, the difference is the adjustment. House districts have no nowcast; their forecasts come from the district model, not from these polls.

RacePollsLatestSimple average
last 30 days (n)
Adjusted average
our nowcast
Kansas Senate7Sep 24Even (3)R+4forecast →
Florida Governor19Sep 17D+1 (2)R+4forecast →
Alaska Senate21Sep 30D+1 (5)D+1forecast →
South Carolina Senate6Sep 29R+1 (3)R+3forecast →
Iowa Senate24Sep 30D+1 (12)R+1forecast →
Minnesota Senate10Sep 29D+2 (5)D+1forecast →
Maine Senate16Oct 1D+2 (9)Evenforecast →
Georgia Governor10Sep 18R+2 (2)R+1forecast →
Ohio Governor20Sep 10D+2 (2)R+1forecast →
Oregon Governor4Sep 9R+2 (1)R+2forecast →
Nevada Governor12Sep 8D+2 (1)R+6forecast →
Texas Senate41Sep 29D+2 (14)Evenforecast →
Michigan Senate37Sep 30D+3 (12)D+1forecast →
Texas Governor33Sep 20R+3 (10)R+6forecast →
Ohio Senate25Sep 29D+3 (7)D+2forecast →
Louisiana Senate2Sep 19R+4 (1)R+16forecast →
Wisconsin Governor5Aug 20D+4 (4)D+2forecast →
Florida Senate10Sep 27R+4 (6)R+8forecast →
Arkansas Governor1Aug 12R+5 (1)R+11forecast →
New Hampshire Senate25Sep 27D+5 (8)D+3forecast →
Arkansas Senate4Aug 18R+5 (3)R+11forecast →
Vermont Governor3Sep 21D+6 (1)R+16forecast →
Mississippi Senate3Aug 15R+6 (1)R+10forecast →
Iowa Governor11Sep 20D+6 (7)D+5forecast →
Arizona Governor20Aug 19D+7 (9)D+5forecast →
Georgia Senate15Sep 18D+7 (4)D+6forecast →
Kansas Governor3Sep 16R+8 (2)R+5forecast →
Michigan Governor30Sep 23D+8 (7)D+6forecast →
South Carolina Governor2Aug 15R+8 (2)R+12forecast →
Alabama Governor2Jul 11R+8 (1)R+21forecast →
Minnesota Governor7Sep 15D+8 (4)D+8forecast →
Kentucky Senate2Aug 27R+9 (1)R+15forecast →
North Carolina Senate36Sep 29D+9 (9)D+8forecast →
Idaho Governor2Sep 16R+10 (1)R+23forecast →
Maine Governor7Sep 21D+11 (4)D+10forecast →
New Mexico Governor3Aug 28D+12 (2)D+7forecast →
New Hampshire Governor8Sep 21R+12 (3)R+11forecast →
New York Governor23Sep 20D+12 (4)D+11forecast →
Nebraska Governor6Sep 16R+12 (2)R+11forecast →
Tennessee Governor3Aug 26R+13 (1)R+25forecast →
Connecticut Governor7Sep 21D+14 (5)D+14forecast →
New Mexico Senate1Aug 28D+15 (1)D+12forecast →
Virginia Senate2Jun 16D+18 (1)D+19forecast →
Rhode Island Senate4Sep 21D+20 (2)D+19forecast →
Massachusetts Governor9Sep 21D+20 (2)D+22forecast →
Tennessee Senate1Aug 26R+20 (1)R+25forecast →
Illinois Governor1Nov 24D+20 (1)D+18forecast →
Alabama Senate2Sep 25R+21 (1)R+22forecast →
Massachusetts Senate10Sep 21D+21 (2)D+22forecast →
Pennsylvania Governor15Sep 22D+22 (2)D+19forecast →
California Governor64Sep 20D+23 (3)D+21forecast →
Oklahoma Senate1Aug 6R+24 (1)R+29forecast →
Montana Senate14Sep 15R+24 (4)R+19forecast →
Rhode Island Governor6Sep 21D+26 (3)D+20forecast →
Maryland Governor1Aug 3D+27 (1)D+28forecast →
South Dakota Senate8Sep 27—R+10forecast →
Alaska Governor12Sep 17—D+7forecast →
Idaho Senate7Sep 16—R+17forecast →
Nebraska Senate8Sep 16—R+1forecast →
MT-15Sep 24Even (3)—forecast →
OH-92Sep 23Even (1)—forecast →
WI-13Sep 23Even (1)—forecast →
AL-23Aug 31Even (1)—forecast →
FL-91Aug 30Even (1)—forecast →
MI-102Aug 13Even (1)—forecast →
FL-111Jul 29Even (1)—forecast →
VA-21Jul 13Even (1)—forecast →
FL-273Sep 13R+0 (2)—forecast →
KY-64Aug 23D+0 (2)—forecast →
NY-172Jul 22D+0 (2)—forecast →
OH-153Sep 24D+1 (1)—forecast →
UT-22Sep 23D+1 (2)—forecast →
MN-13Sep 21D+1 (1)—forecast →
VA-12Sep 17R+1 (1)—forecast →
MI-44Sep 16D+1 (1)—forecast →
MO-22Sep 15R+1 (1)—forecast →
SC-12Sep 10R+1 (1)—forecast →
NE-13Sep 3D+1 (1)—forecast →
NV-23Sep 3R+1 (2)—forecast →
FL-222Aug 31D+1 (2)—forecast →
TX-351Aug 31R+1 (1)—forecast →
FL-161Aug 29D+1 (1)—forecast →
CO-31Jul 23R+1 (1)—forecast →
CO-52Jul 21R+1 (1)—forecast →
IA-22Jul 19D+1 (1)—forecast →
WA-33Jul 10R+1 (1)—forecast →
PA-83Jun 23D+2 (2)—forecast →
CO-81Sep 17R+2 (1)—forecast →
GA-111Sep 11D+2 (1)—forecast →
FL-134Aug 27R+2 (3)—forecast →
MI-72Aug 13D+2 (1)—forecast →
IN-51Jul 20R+2 (1)—forecast →
AZ-63Jun 11D+2 (1)—forecast →
TX-231Mar 11R+2 (1)—forecast →
ME-27Sep 21D+3 (2)—forecast →
PA-104Sep 20D+3 (1)—forecast →
NC-111Sep 11D+3 (1)—forecast →
NM-22Sep 2D+3 (1)—forecast →
GA-71Aug 26R+3 (1)—forecast →
TX-343Aug 22D+3 (1)—forecast →
NC-31Aug 2R+3 (1)—forecast →
NY-11Dec 11R+3 (1)—forecast →
NH-11Sep 21D+4 (1)—forecast →
NE-21Sep 13D+4 (1)—forecast →
NC-91Sep 3R+4 (1)—forecast →
TN-91Sep 3R+4 (1)—forecast →
OH-11Aug 24D+4 (1)—forecast →
AR-22Aug 13D+4 (1)—forecast →
SC-71Jul 28R+4 (1)—forecast →
WI-34Jun 25D+4 (2)—forecast →
OK-51Sep 20R+5 (1)—forecast →
PA-72Sep 20D+5 (1)—forecast →
PA-15Sep 14R+5 (2)—forecast →
NJ-72Sep 12D+5 (1)—forecast →
IA-12Jul 16D+5 (1)—forecast →
TX-154Aug 22D+6 (2)—forecast →
NC-71Aug 20R+6 (1)—forecast →
IA-31Mar 14R+6 (1)—forecast →
AZ-23Aug 24R+6 (2)—forecast →
NC-14Sep 11D+7 (1)—forecast →
OH-102Jul 23R+7 (2)—forecast →
ID-12Jul 14R+8 (2)—forecast →
TN-51Aug 24R+8 (1)—forecast →
FL-141Jul 15D+8 (1)—forecast →
NC-141Mar 12R+8 (1)—forecast →
OH-75Aug 10D+9 (4)—forecast →
FL-82Jul 29R+9 (2)—forecast →
FL-251May 2D+10 (1)—forecast →
TX-282Aug 22D+11 (1)—forecast →
MN-22Sep 13D+12 (1)—forecast →
MD-11Jul 27R+13 (1)—forecast →
NY-181Jul 26D+14 (1)—forecast →
NC-101Mar 12R+15 (1)—forecast →
NY-231Sep 23R+17 (1)—forecast →
IL-41Aug 1D+19 (1)—forecast →
NH-28Sep 21D+21 (1)—forecast →
ME-11Sep 21D+22 (1)—forecast →
MT-21Sep 7R+22 (1)—forecast →
WI-61May 28R+22 (1)—forecast →
LA-61Aug 13——forecast →
LA-51Apr 7——forecast →