Wyoming Senate
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
17 of 31 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 2 seats after November (80% range 2–3) and Republicans 29 (28–29).
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Decided: only a Republican is running | William Driskill (R) | official | |
| 2 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 3 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Cheri Steinmetz (R) | official | |
| 4 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 5 | Forecast | Lauren Schoenfeld (R), Theodore Hanlon (D) | 5% | official |
| 6 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Taft Love (R) | official | |
| 7 | Forecast | Mark Rinne (R), James Lee (D) | 7% | official |
| 8 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 9 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Chris Rothfuss (D) | official | |
| 10 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 11 | Forecast | Robert Davis (R), Jim Wilson (D), Donald Van Matre (CT) | 5% | official |
| 12 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 13 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Stacy Jones (R) | official | |
| 14 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 15 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Wendy Schuler (R) | official | |
| 16 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 17 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Michael Gierau (D) | official | |
| 18 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 19 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Reynolds Kost (R) | official | |
| 20 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 21 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Melissa Butcher (R) | official | |
| 22 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 23 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Abby Angelos (R) | official | |
| 24 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 25 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Cale Case (R) | official | |
| 26 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 27 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Kevin Helling (R) | official | |
| 28 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 29 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Lisa Engebretsen (R) | official | |
| 30 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 31 | Forecast | Evie Brennan (R), Shifa Hamid (D) | 4% | official |