FutureBallotU.S. election forecasts, with every number traced to its source

LA-1: no forecast published

The House model forecasts a district only when it can identify the one contest the seat will be decided in.

Why not here: no two-candidate contest: 1D/2R on the ballot and 0 candidate(s) with any polling.

Louisiana's 2026 U.S. House races are an all-party primary on 3 November: every candidate of every party is on one ballot, and anyone above 50% wins outright; otherwise the top two meet in a runoff on 12 December. The spring party primaries were cancelled after the Supreme Court's ruling in Louisiana v. Callais (29 April 2026), and the districts are the map enacted on 29 May. This seat's winner may therefore not be known on election night.

Sources: https://www.sos.la.gov/elections-voting/election-dates; https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Louisiana,_2026

In the House total: the seat is still counted. The House model's own estimate, which does not depend on naming the candidates, gives the Democratic side a <1% chance, an expected margin of R+23. What is held back is a race page that names who that is.

Candidates on record: E. Liddy Glass, Lauren Jewett, Randall Arrington, Steve Scalise.

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