North Carolina Senate
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
50 of 50 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 20 seats after November (80% range 18–24) and Republicans 30 (26–32). Neither party wins a majority in 3% of the simulations: the parties can tie at 25 seats each. Who then runs the chamber depends on the state: a coalition, a power-sharing agreement, or, in some Senates, the lieutenant governor's tie-breaking vote.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Forecast | Melissa Zehner (D), Jerry Tillett (R) | 7% | official |
| 2 | Forecast | Roy Surrett (D), Norman Sanderson (R) | 7% | official |
| 3 | Forecast | Charles Dudley (D), Bob Brinson (R) | 2% | official |
| 4 | Forecast | Jessica (Jess) Rivera (D), Buck Newton (R) | 14% | official |
| 5 | Forecast | Kandie D. Smith (D), Henry Hostetler (R) | 97% | official |
| 6 | Forecast | Andi Morrow (D), Michael Anthony Lazzara (R) | <1% | official |
| 7 | Forecast | Jessica Bichler (D), Michael Lee (R) | 17% | official |
| 8 | Forecast | Richard (Rick) Combes (D), Tim White (Libertarian), Bill Rabon (R) | 3% | official |
| 9 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Brent Jackson (R) | official | |
| 10 | Forecast | Kevin Terrett (Libertarian), Benton Sawrey (R), Pat LeGrand (D) | 2% | official |
| 11 | Forecast | Gavin Bell (Libertarian), Lisa Stone Barnes (R), James D. Gailliard (D) | 38% | official |
| 12 | Forecast | Jim Burgin (R), Tanya White Anderson (D) | 1% | official |
| 13 | Forecast | Robert van Brederode (R), Lisa Grafstein (D) | 90% | official |
| 14 | Forecast | Dan Blue (D), Angela B. McCarty (R) | >99% | official |
| 15 | Forecast | Jay J. Chaudhuri (D), David Bankert (R) | >99% | official |
| 16 | Forecast | Gale Adcock (D), Jonathan D. Miller (Libertarian), Philip Hensley (R) | 99% | official |
| 17 | Forecast | Patrick J. Bowersox (Libertarian), Mrs. Sydney Batch (D), Shirley Johnson (R) | 98% | official |
| 18 | Forecast | Haseeb Fatmi (D), Chris Stock (R), Brad Hessel (Libertarian) | 82% | official |
| 19 | Forecast | Venus de la Cruz (R), Val Applewhite (D) | >99% | official |
| 20 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Natalie S. Murdock (D) | official | |
| 21 | Forecast | Paul Taylor (D), Tom McInnis (R) | 1% | official |
| 22 | Forecast | Sophia Chitlik (D), LaKeshia M. Alston (R) | 99% | official |
| 23 | Forecast | Laura Pichardo (R), Jonah Garson (D) | >99% | official |
| 24 | Forecast | Danny Earl Britt, Jr. (R), Catina Hamm (D) | 4% | official |
| 25 | Forecast | Southey Blanton (D), Amy Scott Galey (R) | 2% | official |
| 26 | Forecast | Sam Page (R), Steve Luking (D) | 16% | official |
| 27 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Michael K. Garrett (D) | official | |
| 28 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Gladys A. Robinson (D) | official | |
| 29 | Forecast | Dave Craven (R), Judy Little (D) | <1% | official |
| 30 | Forecast | Pamela D. McAfee (D), Steve Jarvis (R) | <1% | official |
| 31 | Forecast | Andy Bowline (D), Dana Caudill Jones (R) | 1% | official |
| 32 | Forecast | Peter Antinozzi (R), Keenen Altic (Green), Paul Lowe, Jr. (D) | >99% | official |
| 33 | Forecast | Carl Ford (R), Gary R. Weart (D) | <1% | official |
| 34 | Forecast | Kevin Crutchfield (R), April Cook (D) | 30% | official |
| 35 | Forecast | Christine E. Winward (D), Todd Johnson (R) | 1% | official |
| 36 | Forecast | Eddie Settle (R), Trevor Cole Hardwick (D) | <1% | official |
| 37 | Forecast | Raygan J. Angel (D), Vickie Sawyer (R) | 1% | official |
| 38 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Mujtaba A. Mohammed (D) | official | |
| 39 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | DeAndrea Salvador (D) | official | |
| 40 | Forecast | Joyce Waddell (D), Bobbie Shields (R) | 99% | official |
| 41 | Forecast | Caleb Theodros (D), Kevin Gray (R) | 99% | official |
| 42 | Forecast | Mrs. Woodson Bradley (D), Stacie McGinn (R) | 68% | official |
| 43 | Forecast | Steve Rutherford (D), Brad Overcash (R) | 1% | official |
| 44 | Forecast | Ted Alexander (R), Rod Powell (D) | <1% | official |
| 45 | Forecast | Greg Cranford (D), Mark Hollo (R) | <1% | official |
| 46 | Forecast | Warren Daniel (R), Kyle Whisnant (D) | <1% | official |
| 47 | Forecast | Frank Patton Hughes III (D), Ralph Hise (R) | 1% | official |
| 48 | Forecast | Doyle G. Brown, Jr. (D), Tim Moffitt (R) | 1% | official |
| 49 | Forecast | Cj Domingo (R), Julie Mayfield (D) | >99% | official |
| 50 | Forecast | Tom Downing (D), Kevin Corbin (R) | <1% | official |