Minnesota Senate
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
67 of 67 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 36 seats after November (80% range 32–41) and Republicans 31 (26–35).
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Forecast | Mark Johnson (R), Bjorn Solberg (D) | 5% | official |
| 2 | Forecast | Dan R. Rogers (D), Steve Green (R), Calvin Larson Jr. (UNI) | 3% | official |
| 3 | Forecast | Grant Hauschild (D), Andrea Zupancich (R) | 86% | official |
| 4 | Forecast | Rob Kupec (D), Austin Peterson (R) | 93% | official |
| 5 | Forecast | Mike Wiener (R), Skylar Fynboh (D) | <1% | official |
| 6 | Forecast | Keri Heintzeman (R), Denise Slipy (D) | 1% | official |
| 7 | Forecast | Kim (Kotonias) McLaughlin (D), Robert Farnsworth (R) | 24% | official |
| 8 | Forecast | Darrick Law (R), Jen McEwen (D) | >99% | official |
| 9 | Forecast | Jordan Rasmusson (R), Krystyne M. Knutson (D) | <1% | official |
| 10 | Forecast | Nathan Wesenberg (R), Tara Killen (D) | <1% | official |
| 11 | Forecast | Jason Rarick (R), Mary Carlson (D), Monique Doward (FI) | 2% | official |
| 12 | Forecast | Kari Dorry (D), Torrey Westrom (R) | <1% | official |
| 13 | Forecast | Jared J. Gapinski (R), Trent C Dilks (D) | <1% | official |
| 14 | Forecast | Aric Putnam (D), Bernie Perryman (R) | 92% | official |
| 15 | Forecast | Braxton John Seifert (R), Andrea Boettger (D) | <1% | official |
| 16 | Forecast | Kathy Jorgenson (D), Andrew R. Lang (R) | <1% | official |
| 17 | Forecast | Julie Kelzer (D), Glenn H Gruenhagen (R) | <1% | official |
| 18 | Forecast | Jackie Henry (R), Nick Frentz (D) | 99% | official |
| 19 | Forecast | Sam Powell (D), John R. Jasinski (R) | <1% | official |
| 20 | Forecast | Steven E Jacob (R), Jason Lohmann (D) | 3% | official |
| 21 | Forecast | Chris Knoll (R), Caitlyn Sanow-Minett (D) | 7% | official |
| 22 | Forecast | Jeremy Munson (R), Marisa Ulmen (D) | 7% | official |
| 23 | Forecast | Angie Hanson (D), Gene Dornink (R) | 2% | official |
| 24 | Forecast | Nels T. Pierson (R), Simon Glaser (D) | 14% | official |
| 25 | Forecast | Liz Boldon (D), John Howie (R) | 99% | official |
| 26 | Forecast | Cherie Johnson (R), Jack Hedin (D) | 6% | official |
| 27 | Forecast | Andrew Mathews (R), Brandon Van Dover (D) | <1% | official |
| 28 | Forecast | Mark Koran (R), Max Glenna (D) | <1% | official |
| 29 | Forecast | Louis McNutt (D), Michael Holmstrom Jr. (R) | <1% | official |
| 30 | Forecast | Eric Lucero (R), Leah Temple (D) | <1% | official |
| 31 | Forecast | Calvin Bahr (R), Gadisa Berkessa (D) | 1% | official |
| 32 | Forecast | Chris Ford (D), Michael Kreun (R) | 27% | official |
| 33 | Forecast | Karin Housley (R), Nat Smith (D) | 29% | official |
| 34 | Forecast | John Hoffman (D), Karen Attia (R) | 97% | official |
| 35 | Forecast | Angela Nelson (D), Jim Abeler (R) | 49% | official |
| 36 | Forecast | Heidi Heino (R), Heather Gustafson (D) | 93% | official |
| 37 | Forecast | Brady Hoag (R), Kristy Janigo (D) | 29% | official |
| 38 | Forecast | Brad Olson (R), Susan Pha (D) | >99% | official |
| 39 | Forecast | Ngone Saliou Niang (Green), Mary K Kunesh (D), Pam Wolf (R) | >99% | official |
| 40 | Forecast | Rachel Japuntich (R), John Marty (D) | >99% | official |
| 41 | Forecast | Judy Seeberger (D), Tom Dippel (R) | 85% | official |
| 42 | Forecast | Kevin Peterson (R), Bonnie Westlin (D) | 99% | official |
| 43 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Mike Freiberg (D) | official | |
| 44 | Forecast | James Tacheny (R), Sam Rosemark (D) | 99% | official |
| 45 | Forecast | Shannon Bruce (R), Ann Johnson Stewart (D) | 92% | official |
| 46 | Forecast | Ron Latz (D), Kayla Wright (R) | 97% | official |
| 47 | Forecast | Brian Stalboerger (R), Amanda Hemmingsen-Jaeger (D) | 99% | official |
| 48 | Forecast | Julia Coleman (R), Dan Kessler (D) | 19% | official |
| 49 | Forecast | Krish Subrahmanian (D), Kris Babler (independent), Dustin R. DuFault (R) | 99% | official |
| 50 | Forecast | Owen Michaelson (R), Karla Hult (D) | >99% | official |
| 51 | Forecast | Simon Trautmann Cordova (D), Juline Birgersson (R) | >99% | official |
| 52 | Forecast | Brady O'Neil (R), Liz Reyer (D) | >99% | official |
| 53 | Forecast | Paul Cumings (D), Todd Podgorski (R) | 98% | official |
| 54 | Forecast | Rick Olson (D), Ben Bakeberg (R) | 18% | official |
| 55 | Forecast | Van Holston (R), Lindsey Port (D) | 97% | official |
| 56 | Forecast | Raymond David Petersen (R), Erin Maye Quade (D) | 98% | official |
| 57 | Forecast | Steven Schroer (D), Zach Duckworth (R) | 4% | official |
| 58 | Forecast | Mark Legvold (D), Bill Lieske (R) | 28% | official |
| 59 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Bobby Joe Champion (D) | official | |
| 60 | Forecast | Abigail Wolters (R), Doron Clark (D) | 97% | official |
| 61 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Scott Dibble (D) | official | |
| 62 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Omar Fateh (D) | official | |
| 63 | Forecast | Diane Napper (R), Zaynab Mohamed (D) | >99% | official |
| 64 | Forecast | Robert Bushard (R), Erin Murphy (D) | >99% | official |
| 65 | Forecast | _ Rocco (R), Robyn Gulley (D) | >99% | official |
| 66 | Forecast | Clare Oumou Verbeten (D), Kathleen Bart (R) | >99% | official |
| 67 | Forecast | Toby Hesselgrave (R), Foung Hawj (D) | 97% | official |