AZ-6 · House

The district, in brief

Arizona's 6th covers much of southeastern Arizona, with most of its population in northern Tucson and its suburbs, on the map first used in 2022; it is not redrawn for this cycle. The text gives no presidential result for the district.

The incumbent is Republican Juan Ciscomani, reelected with 50.0% in 2024 and unopposed in his primary with 76,481 votes. The Democratic nominee is JoAnna Mendoza, a former veteran services representative for U.S. Representative Tom O'Halleran, unopposed in her primary with 78,310 votes after five other Democrats withdrew; Kirsten Engel, the nominee in 2022 and 2024, declined to run. Jereme Peters is the Libertarian nominee and Gary Swing the Green write-in nominee. As of July 1, 2026 Ciscomani had raised $6,172,867 with $4,135,163 on hand; Mendoza had raised $7,354,599 with $3,260,752 on hand.

Decision Desk HQ (September 8, 2026) and The Economist (May 6, 2026) label the seat Flip; the Cook Political Report and Inside Elections (June 30, 2025) and Sabato's Crystal Ball (July 10, 2025) call it Tossup; Silver Bulletin is listed with a date of August 20, 2026 but no ranking shown. Three district polls are recorded: Normington Petts, a Democratic firm (June 8–11, 2026, 500 likely voters), had Mendoza 47%, Ciscomani 45%, undecided 8%; Ragnar Research Partners, a Republican firm (March 12–14, 2026, 400 likely voters), had Mendoza 47%, Ciscomani 44%, undecided 9%; Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm (October 14–15, 2025, 581 likely voters), had Mendoza 42%, Ciscomani 41%, undecided 17%.

A paragraph quoting a model forecast from the day this brief was written is omitted; the current forecast is at the top of this page.

The facts, each beside its sentence

Not in the source: The text gives no presidential results for the district, and the facts carry no presidential baseline.; Three district polls are in the text but the model's basis says no district polls; they are not in the model.; Silver Bulletin's rating is missing from the predictions table (date shown, no ranking).; The raters' labels are 'Flip' and 'Tossup' with no party direction or Lean/Likely gradation given.; No post-primary endorsements are listed.

Read from the district's section of Wikipedia's state page (CC BY-SA), archived as 389ca3f89b96; written by claude-fable-5-1 (batch reader) on 2026-09-30 and checked mechanically: every quote occurs verbatim in the archived text, every number in the brief occurs in the inputs. No probability here is the reader's.

Who holds the seat now

Juan Ciscomani (Republican), in this chamber since 2023, 2 terms. Committees: House Committee on Appropriations; House Committee on Veterans' Affairs.

From the congress-legislators dataset (CC0), archived as ae8cb9477c48. For a Senate race this lists both of the state's senators; the one whose term ends in the election year holds the seat on the ballot. For a House district redrawn for 2026 it is the member elected under the old lines with this number, who may be running elsewhere; the dossier above names who is running here.

How it has voted for president

A shift of 0.6 points toward the Republicans from 2016 to 2024. county returns placed on the current lines by 2020 block population; MEDSL county file (2016), an MIT-licensed county file (2020, checked against certified state results) and MEDSL precinct returns (2024). For a district split across counties this is an estimate, and where the state published the exact 2024 figure for these lines, that exact figure is the one the model uses.

Who are the voters?

Of about 559,671 adults 25 and over. In 2020 the district voted 50.1% Democratic (two-party) for president. With the same preferences and a 2022-style midterm turnout, it would vote 50.0% Democratic: the midterm electorate alone moves the margin 0.1 points toward Republicans. Group shares are estimated from how results vary across the state's census tracts (ecological inference, anchored to Pew's 2020 validated-voter figures) and calibrated to this district's actual 2020 vote; turnout is the Census survey's state rate by race and national rate by education, whose state samples carry margins of several points.

Not answered here: how each group will vote in 2026. These are 2020 preferences; this profile is description, not yet an input to the forecast.

The money

FEC bulk candidate summaries through July 01, 2026; $149,533 of independent expenditures for or against these candidates this cycle (FEC Schedule E, types 24E and 24A), which is the parties' and outside groups' own revealed view of whether this seat is in play.

The district in numbers

ACS 5-year 2023, the Census Bureau's own tabulation of this district (118th Congress lines). Unemployment is the BLS county series placed on the district by block population, not seasonally adjusted, so changes are same-month comparisons. Income, transfers and jobs are BEA county accounts placed the same way, compared with the average district. Every other figure is a named column of a named table in the Bureau's summary file, archived before it was read. This is what a reader knows about a district before looking at a poll; the model does not yet use it, and whether it should is a registered question.

Who is favoured, and by how much?

The 90% interval runs from -14.0 to +14.0 points, D-R. It is wide because this district has never been polled.

What is this built on?

A model trained on every contested House race 2012-2024 predicts this district's lean from its own record: presidential and House results on the current lines, incumbency, both candidates' prior offices, outside and party money before 1 October, demographics and public-assistance shares from the Census release before the election, local unemployment and income, and religious tradition. The national margin comes from presidential approval, the economy, the midterm penalty and the generic ballot corrected for its measured lean. Draws share national and state errors, so the seat total and this district come from the same simulation.

Not answered here: district polls, which are not yet folded in.

Why does the model say this?

Each figure is how far this district's predicted lean moves when that one feature is set to the typical value across 2026 districts, everything else held: total outside/party money: 5.7 pts toward the Democrat; experience gap (-4 levels, D minus R): 4.4 pts toward the Republican; snap share (8.7%): 0.3 pts toward the Democrat; religion: adherents (39.9%): 0.3 pts toward the Democrat; wages share income (38.9%): 0.3 pts toward the Republican.

How sure is it, and of what?

Total sd 8.48 points, made of the seat's own volatility 89%, correlated polling error 11%. The decomposition is stored with the forecast rather than reconstructed, so a probability whose dominant input is a placeholder is visibly that.

Not answered here: a nowcast. 'If ballots were cast today' needs something that observes today, and for a House district nothing does. Publishing the election-day figure under both labels would make one forecast look like two.

How was this number made?

Run 6f211e6f-2bdc-4dda-8f72-81fc628dab0b, house_district_prior/0.2.0, as of 2026-10-02. Promoted by a pre-registered gate: on 2016-2022 its Brier score was 0.036 against 0.049 for the previous method, and on a single 2024 run 0.023 against 0.032 (experiments/district_gate_result.md, with an independent review).