Ohio House
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
<1%chance of a Democratic majority
>99%chance of a Republican majority
50seats for a majority, of 99
99 of 99 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 36 seats after November (80% range 33–41) and Republicans 63 (58–66). In 1 seat a Democrat or Republican faces only independents or minor-party candidates and is counted as winning; in 2018 to 2024 such candidates lost about 3% of the time, mostly to sitting independents.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Forecast | Dontavius Jarrells (D), Joel A. Greff (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 2 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Charity Martin King (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 3 | Forecast | Ismail Mohamed (D), Bernadine Kennedy Kent (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 4 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Beryl Brown Piccolantonio (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 5 | Forecast | Meredith Lawson-Rowe (D), Richard Cole (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 6 | Forecast | Christine Cockley (D), Matthew Jackson (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 7 | Forecast | Ukeme Awakessien Jeter (D), William Mercier (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 8 | Forecast | Anita Somani (D), Kelly Hunter-Kalagidis (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 9 | Forecast | Munira Yasin Abdullahi (D), Bruce Euans (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 10 | Forecast | Mark Sigrist (D), Denise D'Angelo (R) | 89% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 11 | Forecast | Crystal Lett (D), Shawn Kaeser (R) | 90% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 12 | Forecast | Liam N. Strausbaugh (D), Brian Stewart (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 13 | Forecast | Tristan W. Rader (D), Billy Fronimo (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 14 | Forecast | Sean Patrick Brennan (D), David J. Morgan (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 15 | Forecast | Chris Glassburn (D), Daniel Conway (R) | 96% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 16 | Forecast | Scott DiMauro (D), Sophia Tjotjos (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 17 | Forecast | Megan Coy (D), Mike Dovilla (R) | 16% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 18 | Forecast | Davida Russell (D), Maureen Lynn (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 19 | Forecast | Nicole Sigurdson (D), Ed Hargate (R) | 97% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 20 | Forecast | Eugene Miller (D), Donna Walker-Brown (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 21 | Forecast | Eric Synenberg (D), Tina Barhams (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 22 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Darnell T. Brewer (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 23 | Forecast | Daniel P. Troy (D), Julie A. Belich (R) | 93% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 24 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Dani Isaacsohn (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 25 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Cecil Thomas (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 26 | Forecast | Ashley Bryant Bailey (D), Tom Brinkman (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 27 | Forecast | Rachel Baker (D), Nancy Aichholz (R) | 98% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 28 | Forecast | Karen Brownlee (D), Jill Cole (R) | 98% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 29 | Forecast | Jonathan R Bradner (D), Cindy Abrams (R) | 7% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 30 | Forecast | Caleb Price (D), Mike Odioso (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 31 | Forecast | J. Noah Spinner (D), Mike Kahoe (R) | 43% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 32 | Forecast | Djordjije Popovic (D), Jack K. Daniels (R) | 7% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 33 | Forecast | Veronica Sims (D), Napoleon Rodgers Jr. (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 34 | Forecast | Derrick Hall (D), Craig A. Shubert (R) | 94% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 35 | Forecast | Samantha Salamon (D), Vik Sandhu (R) | 47% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 36 | Forecast | Rose Lounsbury (D), Andrea White (R) | 30% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 37 | Forecast | Tom Herner (D), Tom Young (R) | 6% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 38 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Desiree Tims (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 39 | Forecast | Daquan Neal (D), Mark Campbell (R) | 8% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 40 | Forecast | Timothy B. Hornbacker (D), Rodney Creech (R), Joshua A. Umbaugh (Libertarian) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 41 | Forecast | Erika White (D), Ian Chamberlin (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 42 | Forecast | Elgin Rogers Jr. (D), Robert McMahon (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 43 | Forecast | Michele Grim (D), David Karmol (R), Zach Hall (Libertarian) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 44 | Forecast | David J Fournier (D), Edward L Schimmel (R) | 12% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 45 | Forecast | Jayson Ameer Rasheed (D), Jennifer Gross (R) | 1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 46 | Forecast | Benjamin McCall (D), Thomas Hall (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 47 | Forecast | Jordan Haire (D), Diane Mullins (R), Jason Purviance (Libertarian) | 1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 48 | Forecast | Nick Morris (D), Christina M. Hagan (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 49 | Forecast | Krista L Allison (D), Jim Thomas (R) | 30% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 50 | Forecast | Rylan Z. Finzer (D), Matthew Kishman (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 51 | Forecast | Amanda Fontana (D), Jodi Salvo (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 52 | Forecast | Mike Baker (D), Cliff Winkel (R) | 14% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 53 | Forecast | Matt Lundy (D), Bradley Lacko (R) | 95% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 54 | Forecast | Brenda Buchanan (D), Kellie Deeter (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 55 | Forecast | Paul Michael Kurtz (D), C. Michelle Teska (R), Philip L. Pirdy (Libertarian) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 56 | Forecast | Laalitya Acharya (D), Adam Mathews (R) | 1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 57 | Forecast | Rick Walker (D), Jesse Styles (R) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 58 | Forecast | John A Boccieri (D), Heather Fronk (R) | 98% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 59 | Forecast | Wayne Penny Jr. (D), Tex Fischer (R) | 7% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 60 | Forecast | Shelby Kimball (D), Brian Lorenz (R) | 18% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 61 | Forecast | Vince McGrail (D), Shawn Stevens (R) | 3% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 62 | Forecast | Ian Schwartz (D), Jean Schmidt (R), Ron Grethel (Libertarian) | 1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 63 | Forecast | Debbie Davidson (D), Adam C. Bird (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 64 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Nick Santucci (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 65 | Forecast | John Barbo (D), David Thomas (R) | 4% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 66 | Forecast | Chris Nardo (D), Sean M. Hutson (R), Justin P. Peroli (Libertarian) | 1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 67 | Forecast | Heather L. Sample (D), Melanie Miller (R) | 3% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 68 | Forecast | Mason Blankenship (D), Thad Claggett (R) | 4% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 69 | Forecast | Amy Rigsby (D), Kevin D. Miller (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 70 | Forecast | Kim McCarthy (D), Brian Lampton (R) | 1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 71 | Forecast | Krista Magaw (D), Levi Dean (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 72 | Forecast | Jeff Clapper (D), Heidi Workman (R), Michael Fricke (Libertarian) | 4% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 73 | Forecast | Whittney Wood (D), Jeff LaRe (R) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 74 | Forecast | Darrell E Jackson (D), Bernard Willis (R) | 1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 75 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Haraz N. Ghanbari (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 76 | Forecast | Colton Stidam (D), Marilyn S. John (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 77 | Forecast | Brooke Dillon (D), Meredith Craig (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 78 | Forecast | Jeffrey R. Givan (D), Matt Huffman (R) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 79 | Forecast | Bob Guy (D), Monica Robb Blasdel (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 80 | Forecast | Katie Koehler Wagner (D), Johnathan Newman (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 81 | Forecast | David Swanson (D), Patti Rockey (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 82 | Forecast | Maddux McCray (D), Roy W. Klopfenstein (R), Christopher Elder (Libertarian) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 83 | Forecast | Sheila Coressel (D), Ty Mathews (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 84 | Forecast | Arienne C. Childrey (D), Angie King (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 85 | Forecast | Victoria Maddox (D), Tim Barhorst (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 86 | Forecast | Kent Halloran (D), Ben Weber (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 87 | Forecast | Lora Covrett (D), Jeffrey A. McClain (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 88 | Forecast | Aaron W. Jones (D), Gary Click (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 89 | Forecast | Easton Michael Retzke (D), Dj Swearingen (R) | 4% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 90 | Forecast | Collin Docterman (D), Justin Pizzulli (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 91 | Forecast | Amy Wright (D), Bob Peterson (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 92 | Forecast | Sarah Senff (D), Mark Johnson (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 93 | Forecast | Jessica Harper (D), Jason Stephens (R) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 94 | Forecast | Wenda Sheard (D), Kevin Ritter (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 95 | Forecast | Paul Cameron (D), Ty Moore (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 96 | Forecast | Charrie L. Foglio (D), Ron Ferguson (R) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 97 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Adam P. Holmes (R), Tim Godwin (Libertarian) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 98 | Forecast | Scott Grund (D), Mark Hiner (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 99 | Forecast | Louis Murphy (D), Sarah Fowler Arthur (R) | 1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |