Ohio · Governor
election 2026-11-03 · forecast as of 2026-10-01 · margins and probabilities are for Amy Acton
Who is running?
Amy Acton (Democratic), Vivek Ramaswamy (Republican), Don Kissick (Libertarian). The margin below is Amy Acton minus the other candidate in the main contest; the rest are on the ballot and not in it.
The race, in brief
Ohio elects a governor on November 3, 2026, in an open race: Republican governor Mike DeWine is ineligible for a third consecutive term. The text notes Democrats have not won an Ohio gubernatorial election since 2006. The state profile on file records a median household income of 69680.0, a college share of 0.3 and a white non-Hispanic share of 0.8.
The Republican nominee is Vivek Ramaswamy, founder of Roivant Sciences and a 2024 presidential candidate, running with Ohio Senate president Rob McColley; he won the May 5 primary with 82.4% over Casey Putsch. The Democratic nominee is Amy Acton, director of the Ohio Department of Health from 2019 to 2020, running with former party chair David Pepper; she was unopposed. Libertarian Don Kissick is also standing. As of June 5, 2026 Ramaswamy had raised $25,435,113 with $30,742,722 on hand, Acton $5,363,780 with $8,136,282 on hand. No debates are scheduled after Acton's campaign declined; on September 6 Acton was attacked at the Canfield Fair, and the charged suspect is the brother of a former Husted campaign chair.
The Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, Fox News, RealClearPolitics and Sabato's Crystal Ball list the race as Tossup; Inside Elections lists R; Silver Bulletin lists Flip. Polling averages dated September 29, 2026 range from Acton +3.0% (RealClearPolitics) to Acton +6.3% (Decision Desk HQ), with an average of Acton 49.2%, Ramaswamy 44.3%. Late September polls include Marist (Acton 50%, Ramaswamy 44%), Suffolk (Acton 50%, Ramaswamy 41%) and Big Data Poll, a Republican firm (Ramaswamy 48%, Acton 47%).
A paragraph quoting a model forecast from the day this brief was written is omitted; the current forecast is at the top of this page.
The facts, each beside its sentence
Republican incumbent governor Mike DeWine is ineligible to seek a third consecutive term.
Republican entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and Democratic former state health director Amy Acton are the nominees for their respective parties.
Republican entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and Democratic former state health director Amy Acton are the nominees for their respective parties.
Amy Acton, former director of the Ohio Department of Health (2019–2020)
Vivek Ramaswamy, founder of Roivant Sciences and candidate for president in 2024
Democrats have not won a gubernatorial election in Ohio since 2006.
Primary elections were held on May 5, with Ramaswamy defeating minimal opposition for the Republican nomination and Acton running unopposed for the Democratic nomination.
The Cook Political Report Tossup September 17, 2026 Decision Desk HQ Tossup September 23, 2026
|Amy Acton (D) $5,363,780 $2,230,781 $8,136,282 |Vivek Ramaswamy (R) $25,435,113 $12,568,962 $30,742,722
Average 44.3% |49.2% 6.5% |Acton +4.9%
Suffolk University September 23–27, 2026 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 41% |50%
As a result, no debates between the two major-party nominees have been scheduled.
On September 6, Acton was attacked at a campaign event at the Canfield Fair.
Don Kissick, television station operator, nominee for Ohio's 5th congressional district in 2018, and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2024
Robert Sprague, Ohio state treasurer (2019–present) (endorsed Ramaswamy, running for secretary of state)
Not in the source: The forecast rows carry no `basis`, so the text cannot say whether the model uses the statewide polls listed here; the model's margin (Acton -0.9) differs in sign from every polling average in the text (Acton +3.0% to +6.3%).; Inside Elections' 'R' and Silver Bulletin's 'Flip' are given without Lean/Likely/Safe or a direction.; The June 5, 2026 finance figures show Acton's cash on hand ($8,136,282) exceeding raised minus spent; the text gives no explanation (e.g. transfers or loans).; No general-election result or prior gubernatorial vote shares are given; no endorsements are listed under the Endorsements headings.; The primary results table does not name the candidates beside the vote totals; the 82.4%/17.6% split is attributed to Ramaswamy and Putsch from the candidate list order.
Read from the district's section of Wikipedia's state page (CC BY-SA), archived as 7f162e2b8d83; written by claude-fable-5-1 (batch reader) on 2026-09-30 and checked mechanically: every quote occurs verbatim in the archived text, every number in the brief occurs in the inputs. No probability here is the reader's.
How it has voted for president
| Two-party margin | 2016 | 2020 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| President | R+8.5 | R+8.2 | R+11.3 |
A shift of 2.8 points toward the Republicans from 2016 to 2024. county returns summed; MEDSL county file (2016), an MIT-licensed county file (2020, checked against certified state results) and MEDSL precinct returns (2024). For a district split across counties this is an estimate, and where the state published the exact 2024 figure for these lines, that exact figure is the one the model uses.
The state in numbers
| Measure | State | Average state | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bachelor's degree or higher, 25+, 2023 | 30.9% | 34.0% | -3.1 pts |
| White, non-Hispanic, 2023 | 76.5% | 66.3% | +10.2 pts |
| Black, non-Hispanic, 2023 | 12.1% | 10.1% | +2.0 pts |
| Hispanic or Latino, 2023 | 4.6% | 12.9% | -8.3 pts |
| Asian, non-Hispanic, 2023 | 2.4% | 4.4% | -1.9 pts |
| Foreign-born, 2023 | 5.0% | 9.6% | -4.6 pts |
| Median age, 2023 | 39.6 | 39.1 | +0.52 |
| Median household income, 2023 | $69,680 | $77,633 | $-7,953 |
| Median home value, 2023 | $199,200 | $314,132 | $-114,932 |
| Owner-occupied homes, 2023 | 67.0% | 67.4% | -0.4 pts |
| Unemployment (ACS), 2023 | 4.9% | 4.8% | +0.1 pts |
| Federal government workers, 2023 | 2.0% | 3.0% | -1.0 pts |
| Work from home, 2023 | 11.5% | 12.3% | -0.8 pts |
| Households on SNAP, 2023 | 12.4% | 11.1% | +1.3 pts |
| Households with Social Security income, 2023 | 31.9% | 32.1% | -0.2 pts |
| Households with public assistance income, 2023 | 2.5% | 2.6% | -0.1 pts |
| Moved in from another state, past year, 2023 | 1.7% | 2.9% | -1.2 pts |
| Gini index, 2023 | 0.47 | 0.47 | +0.00 |
| Unemployment, latest month (BLS), 2026-07 | 3.5% | 4.0% | -0.5 pts |
| Change in unemployment, past 12 months, 2026-07 | -1.4 pts | -0.1 pts | -1.3 pts |
| Change since the last election (24 months), 2026-07 | -1.3 pts | -0.1 pts | -1.2 pts |
| Per-capita personal income (BEA), 2024 | $64,464 | $70,662 | $-6,198 |
| Per-capita income growth since 2019, nominal, 2024 | 30.5% | 32.4% | -1.9 pts |
| Government and other transfers, share of income, 2024 | 21.1% | 19.4% | +1.8 pts |
| Social Security, share of income, 2022 | 6.5% | 6.1% | +0.4 pts |
| Medicare, share of income, 2022 | 5.2% | 4.4% | +0.8 pts |
| Medicaid, share of income, 2022 | 4.5% | 3.8% | +0.7 pts |
| SNAP, share of income, 2022 | 0.7% | 0.6% | +0.1 pts |
| Earned Income Tax Credit, share of income, 2022 | 0.4% | 0.3% | +0.0 pts |
| Veterans' benefits, share of income, 2022 | 0.7% | 0.9% | -0.2 pts |
| Federal civilian jobs, share of all jobs, 2022 | 1.1% | 1.5% | -0.4 pts |
| Military jobs, share of all jobs, 2022 | 0.5% | 1.2% | -0.7 pts |
ACS 5-year state tables; BLS county unemployment and BEA county income, transfers and jobs summed to the state. Every figure is a named column of a named public-domain table, archived before it was read.
Who is ahead, and by how much?
Two numbers because they answer two questions. The nowcast is where opinion stands; the election-day forecast is where it is likely to end up.
How likely is each to win?
Monte Carlo error is ±0.2 points. A change smaller than that is simulation noise rather than news, and this page will not describe it as movement.
How wide is the range?
Nowcast: 90% of simulations fall between -10.2 and +8.3 points. Election day: -11.9 to +10.6. The election-day interval is 4.0 points wider, which is the 33 days of movement still to come.
What is the uncertainty made of?
Total sd 7.15 points, made of race-specific polling error 48%, drift to election day 32%, correlated polling error 12%, latent opinion 8%. The decomposition is stored with the forecast rather than reconstructed, so a probability whose dominant input is a placeholder is visibly that.
What evidence is this built on?
20 polls, most recent 2026-09-10. 50% verified against a primary source.
What changed since the last run?
Shaded band is the 90% interval, line is the central estimate, positive is Amy Acton ahead of Don Kissick. Over 15 stored forecasts the central estimate moved -1.6 points. There were 7 specification changes (marked on the axis) and no new polls arrived over this window — so every movement in this chart is a change to the model, not a change in the race.
Since 2026-10-01: margin +0.00 points, win probability +0.0 points, on +0 polls. Of that, +0.00 points came from +0 poll(s), +0.01 from the shorter horizon, and -0.01 from the model specification.
How has this model done before?
Measured on 230 forecasts across 230 races in cycles 2016,2018,2020,2022,2024: mean absolute error 4.56 points, Brier score 0.0543. The nominal 90% interval contained the result 94% of the time, the 80% interval 84%, and the 50% interval 47%. Read that with care: a national polling miss moves every race in a cycle at once, so the sample size for a question about the intervals is 5 cycle(s), not 230 forecasts. Per cycle -- bias +1.644 pts; 2016: n=43 bias=+4.68 cov90=0.860; 2018: n=63 bias=-0.52 cov90=1.000; 2020: n=35 bias=+5.44 cov90=0.886; 2022: n=54 bias=-0.60 cov90=0.944; 2024: n=35 bias=+1.48 cov90=1.000.
Where did every number come from?
Nowcast run 4f66a53a-8733-4c3c-8061-569dd53f3216 and election-day run ca3728f3-96e5-4ed6-84ff-90e91065ef5a, model single_race_latent/0.8.1 at commit bdf7e83107c17a2399efe61a44ef1bbee48f9284, seeds 20260924 and 20260924.