Idaho House
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
70 of 70 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 10 seats after November (80% range 8–12) and Republicans 60 (58–62). In 1 seat a Democrat or Republican faces only independents or minor-party candidates and is counted as winning; in 2018 to 2024 such candidates lost about 3% of the time, mostly to sitting independents.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | Forecast | Karen Matthee (D), Jane Sauter (R) | <1% | official |
| 1B | Decided: only a Republican is running | Cornel Rasor (R) | official | |
| 2A | Forecast | Birgid Niedenzu (D), Heather Scott (R) | <1% | official |
| 2B | Forecast | Sabine Krier (D), Dale Hawkins (R) | 2% | official |
| 3A | Forecast | Melissa Mateer (D), Vito Barbieri (R) | <1% | official |
| 3B | Decided: only a Republican is running | Jordan Redman (R) | official | |
| 4A | Forecast | Maxwell McSwain (D), Joe Alfieri (R) | <1% | official |
| 4B | Forecast | Aaron Hayes (D), Elaine Price (R) | <1% | official |
| 5A | Forecast | Mirna Pleines (D), Ron Mendive (R) | <1% | official |
| 5B | Forecast | Lee Wallace (D), Tony Wisniewski (R) | <1% | official |
| 6A | Forecast | Trish Carter-Goodheart (D), Colton Bennett (R) | 1% | official |
| 6B | Forecast | Kathy Dawes (D), Brandon Mitchell (R) | 2% | official |
| 7A | Forecast | Larry Nostrant (D), Kyle Harris (R) | <1% | official |
| 7B | Forecast | Pete Gertonson (D), Charlie Shepherd (R) | <1% | official |
| 8A | Decided: only a Republican is running | Rob Beiswenger (R) | official | |
| 8B | Forecast | Jared Dawson (D), Brian Beckley (R) | <1% | official |
| 9A | Decided: only a Republican is running | John C. Shirts (R) | official | |
| 9B | Forecast | Lupita Connor (D), Judy Boyle (R) | <1% | official |
| 10A | Forecast | Michael Hofferber (D), Mike Moyle (R) | <1% | official |
| 10B | Forecast | Beth Ann McFalls (D), Bruce D. Skaug (R) | <1% | official |
| 11A | Decided: only a Republican is running | Kent A. Marmon (R) | official | |
| 11B | Forecast | Joshua Preminger (D), Debbie Geyer (R) | <1% | official |
| 12A | Forecast | Sterling Barnett (D), Jeff Cornilles (R) | 4% | official |
| 12B | Forecast | Curtis James (D), Jaron Crane (R) | <1% | official |
| 13A | Forecast | Cliff Hohman (D), Brent J Crane (R) | <1% | official |
| 13B | Forecast | Cody Gorman (D), Steven Tanner (R) | 4% | official |
| 14A | Forecast | Jo Daly (D), Ted Hill (R) | 3% | official |
| 14B | Forecast | Valerie Ruxton (D), Josh Tanner (R) | <1% | official |
| 15A | Forecast | Steve Berch (D), Steve Keyser (R) | 71% | official |
| 15B | Forecast | Jae Etchart (D), Dori Healey (R) | 11% | official |
| 16A | Forecast | Megan Woller (D), Jackie Davidson (R) | 98% | official |
| 16B | Forecast | Annie Haws (D), Chandler Stewart Hadraba (R) | 99% | official |
| 17A | Forecast | John Gannon (D), James R Nechwedowich (R) | 99% | official |
| 17B | Forecast | Megan Egbert (D), Justin Alexander Peter Hughes (R) | 96% | official |
| 18A | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Ilana Rubel (D) | official | |
| 18B | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Brooke Green (D), Joseph Bishop (Libertarian) | official | |
| 19A | Forecast | Monica C. Church (D), Bryan Hopkins (R) | >99% | official |
| 19B | Forecast | Chris Mathias (D), Stanley Roach (R) | 99% | official |
| 20A | Forecast | Jennifer Stephens (D), Joe A Palmer (R) | <1% | official |
| 20B | Forecast | Mary A Mosley (D), James D. Holtzclaw (R) | 4% | official |
| 21A | Forecast | Camille Allan (D), James Petzke (R) | <1% | official |
| 21B | Forecast | Casey Hess (D), Jeff Ehlers (R) | <1% | official |
| 22A | Forecast | Loren Petty (D), Kelly Walton (R) | <1% | official |
| 22B | Forecast | Amanda Easley (D), Jason A. Monks (R) | <1% | official |
| 23A | Forecast | Emily Fisher (D), Chris Bruce (R) | <1% | official |
| 23B | Forecast | Joe Fuller (D), Shawn R Dygert (R) | <1% | official |
| 24A | Decided: only a Republican is running | Clint Hostetler (R) | official | |
| 24B | Forecast | Enrique Salas Viernes (D), Chance Requa (R) | 3% | official |
| 25A | Forecast | Marla Palmer (D), Grayson Stone (R) | <1% | official |
| 25B | Decided: only a Republican is running | Cherie Vollmer (R) | official | |
| 26A | Forecast | Anita Janis (D), Mike Pohanka (R) | 23% | official |
| 26B | Forecast | Kevin Marsh (D), Lyle Johnstone (R) | 36% | official |
| 27A | Decided: only a Republican is running | Douglas T Pickett (R) | official | |
| 27B | Decided: only a Republican is running | Clay Handy (R) | official | |
| 28A | Forecast | Kim Jackman (D), Richard (Rick) Cheatum (R) | 3% | official |
| 28B | Forecast | Jayson Meline (D), Dan Garner (R) | <1% | official |
| 29A | Forecast | Mary Shea (D), Dustin W. Manwaring (R) | 6% | official |
| 29B | Forecast | Nate Roberts (D), Jennifer Miles (R) | 28% | official |
| 30A | Decided: only a Republican is running | David Cannon (R) | official | |
| 30B | Forecast | Bree Buckingham (D), Ben G. Fuhriman (R) | <1% | official |
| 31A | Forecast | Kindsey Smith (D), Jerald Dallas Raymond (R) | <1% | official |
| 31B | Forecast | Wendy Norman (D), Rod Furniss (R) | <1% | official |
| 32A | Decided: only a Republican is running | Stephanie Mickelsen (R) | official | |
| 32B | Forecast | Kamber Weninger (D), Erin Bingham (R) | <1% | official |
| 33A | Forecast | Chance Marshall (D), Barbara Ehardt (R) | <1% | official |
| 33B | Forecast | Todd DeVries (D), Marco Erickson (R) | 5% | official |
| 34A | Decided: only a Republican is running | Jon O Weber (R) | official | |
| 34B | Decided: only a Republican is running | Britt Raybould (R) | official | |
| 35A | Forecast | Walter Boyd (D), Mike Veile (R) | <1% | official |
| 35B | Forecast | Mary Kaufman (D), Joshua D. Wheeler (R) | <1% | official |