UT-4 · House
election-day forecast · ground-up model · as of 2026-10-02
The district, in brief
Utah's 4th is a new district for 2026, based in western Utah. The text describes it as covering Tooele, Juab, Millard, Sanpete and Sevier counties and portions of Salt Lake County and Utah County, including the cities of Draper, Sandy, Tooele and South Jordan. The text records that Donald Trump won the district by a 32-point margin in 2024.
By redistricting the district has two incumbents: Republican Burgess Owens, re-elected with 63.4% of the vote in 2024, and Republican Mike Kennedy, elected in the 3rd district with 66.4% in 2024. Owens announced in March 2026 that he would not seek re-election and is listed as withdrawn. Kennedy is the Republican nominee, having won the state convention with 78.68% over Scott Hatfield (10.97%) and three others. The Democratic nominee is Jonny Larsen, a U.S. Marine Corps veteran, who won his convention with 94.93% over Archie Williams. An independent, attorney Steven Burt, filed paperwork. As of June 3, 2026 Kennedy had raised $802,219 with $370,847 on hand; Larsen had raised $34,363 with $4,506 on hand. A debate is scheduled at Snow College on October 8.
Four raters call the seat R: Decision Desk HQ (July 14, 2026), the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball (November 11, 2025); Silver Bulletin is listed (August 20, 2026) with no ranking shown. No poll is recorded.
A paragraph quoting a model forecast from the day this brief was written is omitted; the current forecast is at the top of this page.
The facts, each beside its sentence
Due to redistricting, the district has two incumbents: Republican Burgess Owens, who was re-elected with 63.4% of the vote in 2024, and Republican Mike Kennedy, who was elected in the 3rd district with 66.4% of the vote in 2024.
Due to redistricting, the district has two incumbents
Jonny Larsen, U.S. Marine Corps veteran
Mike Kennedy, incumbent U.S. representative for the 3rd district
Jonny Larsen, U.S. Marine Corps veteran
Mike Kennedy, incumbent U.S. representative for the 3rd district
In the 2024 presidential election, Republican Donald Trump won the district by a 32-point margin.
Republican Burgess Owens, who was re-elected with 63.4% of the vote in 2024, and Republican Mike Kennedy, who was elected in the 3rd district with 66.4% of the vote in 2024
The new district is based in western Utah, encompassing the counties of Tooele, Juab, Millard, Sanpete, Sevier, and portions of Salt Lake County and Utah County, and includes the cities of Draper, Sandy, Tooele, and South Jordan.
Mike Kennedy 753 78.68% Scott Hatfield 105 10.97%
Decision Desk HQ R July 14, 2026 The Cook Political Report R November 11, 2025
Mike Kennedy (R) $802,219 $556,574 $370,847 | Jonny Larsen (D) $34,363 $29,757 $4,506
Owens announced in March 2026 that he would not seek re-election.
Steven Burt (I) $26,904 $24,385 $2,518
A debate, hosted by the Utah Debate Commission, is scheduled to be held at Snow College on October 8.
Not in the source: No district poll is recorded, and the model's basis says no district polls.; The Silver Bulletin row in the predictions table has no ranking.; The ratings say only 'R' with no Lean/Likely/Safe grade.; The text does not say whether Steven Burt qualified for the ballot, only that he filed paperwork.; No endorsements are listed under either party's endorsements heading.; The model's presidential baseline is on the 2024 map, not the new lines; the text's 32-point Trump margin is the only figure for the new district.
Read from the district's section of Wikipedia's state page (CC BY-SA), archived as a3610c25630f; written by claude-fable-5-1 (batch reader) on 2026-09-30 and checked mechanically: every quote occurs verbatim in the archived text, every number in the brief occurs in the inputs. No probability here is the reader's.
Who holds the seat now
Burgess Owens (Republican), in this chamber since 2021, 3 terms. Committees: House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure; House Committee on Education and Workforce.
From the congress-legislators dataset (CC0), archived as ae8cb9477c48. For a Senate race this lists both of the state's senators; the one whose term ends in the election year holds the seat on the ballot. For a House district redrawn for 2026 it is the member elected under the old lines with this number, who may be running elsewhere; the dossier above names who is running here.
How it has voted for president
| Two-party margin | 2016 | 2020 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| President | R+23.6 | R+21.0 | R+22.3 |
A shift of 1.3 points toward the Democrats from 2016 to 2024. county returns placed on the current lines by 2020 block population; MEDSL county file (2016), an MIT-licensed county file (2020, checked against certified state results) and MEDSL precinct returns (2024). For a district split across counties this is an estimate, and where the state published the exact 2024 figure for these lines, that exact figure is the one the model uses.
Who are the voters?
| Group (adults 25+) | Share of adults | Turnout 2020 / midterm | Share of a midterm electorate | Est. Democratic share, 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| White, no degree | 51% | 57% / 47% | 45% | 16% |
| White, degree | 34% | 77% / 74% | 48% | 47% |
| Black | 1% | 22% / 32% | 0% | 90% |
| Hispanic | 9% | 35% / 14% | 2% | 49% |
| Asian | 3% | 20% / 27% | 1% | 62% |
| Other / multiracial | 3% | 60% / 49% | 3% | 51% |
Of about 476,248 adults 25 and over. In 2020 the district voted 32.8% Democratic (two-party) for president. With the same preferences and a 2022-style midterm turnout, it would vote 33.4% Democratic: the midterm electorate alone moves the margin 1.3 points toward Democrats. Group shares are estimated from how results vary across the state's census tracts (ecological inference, anchored to Pew's 2020 validated-voter figures) and calibrated to this district's actual 2020 vote; turnout is the Census survey's state rate by race and national rate by education, whose state samples carry margins of several points.
Not answered here: how each group will vote in 2026. These are 2020 preferences; this profile is description, not yet an input to the forecast.
The money
| Candidate | Raised | Cash on hand | PAC share | Self-funded | Outside $ for | Outside $ against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kennedy, Mike (REP) incumbent | $971,392 | $386,557 | 51% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Owens, Burgess (REP) incumbent · not on our roster | $735,674 | $0 | 21% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Larsen, Jonny (DEM) open seat | $53,579 | $1,129 | 0% | 67% | $0 | $0 |
| Burt, Steven (IND) open seat · not on our roster | $34,074 | $2,075 | 0% | 17% | $0 | $0 |
| Matheson, James David (DEM) challenger · not on our roster | $62 | $421,039 | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
FEC bulk candidate summaries through June 30, 2026; no independent expenditures reported for or against any candidate, which usually means nobody outside the district thinks it is in play.
The district in numbers
| Measure | District | Nation | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bachelor's degree or higher, 25+ | 40.3% | 34.9% | +5.4 pts |
| White, non-Hispanic | 81.4% | 58.2% | +23.2 pts |
| Black, non-Hispanic | 0.7% | 12.0% | -11.3 pts |
| Hispanic or Latino | 10.7% | 19.0% | -8.3 pts |
| Asian, non-Hispanic | 2.2% | 5.8% | -3.6 pts |
| Foreign-born | 6.4% | 13.9% | -7.5 pts |
| Median age | 31.3 | 39.2 | -7.9 |
| Median household income | $115,088 | $84,362 | $+30,726 |
| Median home value | $529,221 | $379,737 | $+149,484 |
| Owner-occupied homes | 78.2% | 65.1% | +13.1 pts |
| Unemployment, July 2026 (BLS county data) | 3.6% | 4.4% | -0.7 pts |
| Change in unemployment, past 12 months | -0.1 pts | — | — |
| Change since the last election (24 months) | -0.1 pts | — | — |
| Unemployment (ACS) | 3.2% | 5.2% | -2.0 pts |
| Federal government workers | 1.7% | 2.6% | -1.0 pts |
| Work from home | 18.8% | 13.5% | +5.4 pts |
| Households on SNAP | 3.5% | 11.8% | -8.3 pts |
| Households with Social Security income | 21.5% | 31.2% | -9.7 pts |
| Households with public assistance income | 1.5% | 2.7% | -1.2 pts |
| Moved in from another state, past year | 2.4% | 2.3% | +0.1 pts |
| Gini index | 0.40 | 0.44 | -0.04 |
| Per-capita personal income (BEA), 2024 | $64,715 | $73,248 | $-8,533 |
| Per-capita income growth since 2019, nominal, 2024 | 38.5% | 32.0% | +6.5 pts |
| Government and other transfers, share of income, 2024 | 13.1% | 19.6% | -6.5 pts |
| Social Security, share of income, 2022 | 3.9% | 5.8% | -2.0 pts |
| Medicare, share of income, 2022 | 2.5% | 4.5% | -1.9 pts |
| Medicaid, share of income, 2022 | 2.4% | 4.0% | -1.6 pts |
| SNAP, share of income, 2022 | 0.2% | 0.6% | -0.4 pts |
| Earned Income Tax Credit, share of income, 2022 | 0.2% | 0.4% | -0.1 pts |
| Veterans' benefits, share of income, 2022 | 0.4% | 0.9% | -0.4 pts |
| Federal civilian jobs, share of all jobs, 2022 | 0.9% | 1.3% | -0.4 pts |
| Military jobs, share of all jobs, 2022 | 0.5% | 0.9% | -0.4 pts |
ACS 5-year 2023, assembled from census tracts by the 2020 population of their blocks inside the current lines, because the Bureau has not tabulated these lines; medians are population-weighted means of tract medians. Unemployment is the BLS county series placed on the district by block population, not seasonally adjusted, so changes are same-month comparisons. Income, transfers and jobs are BEA county accounts placed the same way, compared with the average district. Every other figure is a named column of a named table in the Bureau's summary file, archived before it was read. This is what a reader knows about a district before looking at a poll; the model does not yet use it, and whether it should is a registered question.
Who is favoured, and by how much?
The 90% interval runs from -41.4 to -11.6 points, D-R. It is wide because this district has never been polled.
What is this built on?
A model trained on every contested House race 2012-2024 predicts this district's lean from its own record: presidential and House results on the current lines, incumbency, both candidates' prior offices, outside and party money before 1 October, demographics and public-assistance shares from the Census release before the election, local unemployment and income, and religious tradition. The national margin comes from presidential approval, the economy, the midterm penalty and the generic ballot corrected for its measured lean. Draws share national and state errors, so the seat total and this district come from the same simulation.
Not answered here: district polls, which are not yet folded in.
Why does the model say this?
Each figure is how far this district's predicted lean moves when that one feature is set to the typical value across 2026 districts, everything else held: 2024 presidential lean (R+33.0): 18.4 pts toward the Republican; 2024 House lean: 5.0 pts toward the Republican; PAC money balance: 1.1 pts toward the Republican; median hh income ($114,135): 1.1 pts toward the Republican; experience gap (-4 levels, D minus R): 0.6 pts toward the Republican.
How sure is it, and of what?
Total sd 9.13 points, made of the seat's own volatility 90%, correlated polling error 10%. The decomposition is stored with the forecast rather than reconstructed, so a probability whose dominant input is a placeholder is visibly that.
Not answered here: a nowcast. 'If ballots were cast today' needs something that observes today, and for a House district nothing does. Publishing the election-day figure under both labels would make one forecast look like two.
How was this number made?
Run 6f211e6f-2bdc-4dda-8f72-81fc628dab0b, house_district_prior/0.2.0, as of 2026-10-02. Promoted by a pre-registered gate: on 2016-2022 its Brier score was 0.036 against 0.049 for the previous method, and on a single 2024 run 0.023 against 0.032 (experiments/district_gate_result.md, with an independent review).