South Dakota House
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
<1%chance of a Democratic majority
>99%chance of a Republican majority
36seats for a majority, of 70
70 of 70 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 11 seats after November (80% range 10–13) and Republicans 57 (55–58). The other 2 seats are expected to go to independents, nonpartisan members or other parties.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.1 | Courtney Gale Enfield (D), Daniel Kjos (R), Nick Fosness (R) | 9% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 2 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.1 | Blake Rife (D), Adam Long (R), Manuel Luschas (R) | 9% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 3 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.2 | Erin Ronayne Rudner (D), Spencer Sommers (R), Timothy Hanigan (R) | 23% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 4 | Decided: 1 Democratic, 1 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Emelia Enquist (D), Samuel Froehlke (independent), Ryan Kohl (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 5 | Decided: 0 Democratic, 2 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Neal Tapio (independent), Byron I. Callies (R), Matt Roby (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 6 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 1.0 | Austin Wolf (D), Garret M Campbell (D), Jerry Jongeling (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 7 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.0 | Blake Stevens (D), Mellissa Heermann (R), Roger DeGroot (R) | 1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 8 | Decided: 0 Democratic, 2 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Jon Nelson (R), Todd Wilkinson (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 9 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.0 | Amanda Potter (D), Tesa Schwans (R), Megan Tschetter (R) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 10 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 1.6 | Adam Bair (D), Kathleen Brudvig (D), John Pohlman (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 11 | Decided: 1 Democratic, 1 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Sonja Mentzer (D), Tracey Quint (Libertarian), Brian Mulder (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 12 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.0 | Stephanie Arne (D), Kerry Loudenslager (R), Amber Arlint (R) | 3% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 13 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.1 | Ali Rae Horsted (D), Jack R Kolbeck (R), John Hughes (R) | 7% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 14 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.0 | Erinn Williams (D), Tyler Tordsen (R), Taylor Rae Rehfeldt (R) | 4% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 15 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 1.8 | Kadyn Wittman (D), June CopperStad (D), Andre Zachariahs (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 16 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.0 | Tim Rhead (D), Lisa Bogue (R), John Shubeck (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 17 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 1.0 | Austin Brunick (D), Leslie Gerrish (D), Chris Kassin (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 18 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 1.0 | Karen Springer (D), Jarod Holcomb (D), John R. Marquardt (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 19 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.0 | Heidi Hora (D), Drew Peterson (R), Jessica Bahmuller (R) | 3% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 20 | Decided: 0 Democratic, 2 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Jeff Bathke (R), Terry Sabers (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 21 | Decided: 0 Democratic, 2 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Jim Halverson (R), Marty Overweg (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 22 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.0 | Cully Williams (D), Lana Greenfield (R), Kevin Van Diepen (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 23 | Decided: 0 Democratic, 2 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Garett Heinz (independent), Dick Werner (R), Spencer Gosch (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 24 | Decided: 0 Democratic, 2 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Laurie Gill (R), Mike Weisgram (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 25 | Decided: 0 Democratic, 2 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Carrie Sanderson (R), Nick Buchholz (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 26A | Forecast | Eric E. Emery (D), Ron Frederick (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 26B | Forecast | Lewis J. GrassRope (D), Angi Hanzlik (R) | 6% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 27 | Decided: 0 Democratic, 0 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Evangeline Poor Bear (independent), Elizabeth Lone Eagle (independent), Joe Flood (independent) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 28A | Forecast | Chastity "Chas" Jewett (D), Jana Hunt (R) | 4% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 28B | Decided: only a Republican is running | Travis Ismay (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 29 | Decided: 0 Democratic, 2 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Gary L Cammack (R), Gary Deering (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 30 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.0 | Bret Swanson (D), Trish Ladner (R), Tim R Goodwin (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 31 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.1 | Morgan Plucker (D), Scott Odenbach (R), Mary J. Fitzgerald (R) | 6% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 32 | Decided: 1 Democratic, 1 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Nicole Uhre-Balk (D), Samuel Hare Sr. (independent), Zachary Martin (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 33 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.1 | Kari Hall (D), Phil Jensen (R), Curt Massie (R) | 6% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 34 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.0 | Victor Diego Dominquez (D), Becky J Drury (R), Mike Derby (R) | 4% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 35 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.0 | Ken Jeakins (D), Jason Fleming (R), Dale Bartscher (R) | 1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |