Election night guide
Tuesday, November 3, 2026: when the polls close, and what the forecast expects in each race decided then
106 races are competitive: the model gives neither side more than an 85% chance. They are listed under the hour the polls close in their state, closest first. A chance is the side the model favours, then that side's probability of winning. Click a race for its full forecast.
FutureBallot does not count votes. When polls close, a race is not decided: early returns often lean one way and then the other, as mail and early votes are counted at different times in different states. For counts and calls, use your state's election office or a news organisation that reports them.
6:00 p.m. ET · 3:00 p.m. PT
Polls close in Indiana, Kentucky. Some polls in Indiana, Kentucky close an hour later.
| Competitive race | FutureBallot forecast |
|---|---|
| KY-6 | R 63% |
| IN-5 | R 74% |
Also closing: 14 races the model rates Likely or Safe.
7:00 p.m. ET · 4:00 p.m. PT
Polls close in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia, Vermont. Some polls in Florida close an hour later.
| Competitive race | FutureBallot forecast |
|---|---|
| Georgia Governor | D 51% |
| VA-1 | R 52% |
| FL-22 | D 52% |
| FL-9 | D 54% |
| VA-2 | D 61% |
| FL-16 | R 63% |
| FL-13 | R 67% |
| SC-1 | R 68% |
| VA-5 | R 69% |
| FL-11 | R 70% |
| FL-7 | D 71% |
| FL-4 | R 75% |
| SC-2 | R 75% |
| South Carolina Senate | R 77% |
| GA-1 | R 77% |
| FL-27 | R 78% |
| Florida Governor | R 78% |
| FL-2 | R 79% |
| GA-11 | R 80% |
| South Carolina Governor | R 82% |
| GA-12 | R 82% |
| FL-25 | D 83% |
Also closing: 46 races the model rates Likely or Safe.
7:30 p.m. ET · 4:30 p.m. PT
Polls close in North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia.
| Competitive race | FutureBallot forecast |
|---|---|
| OH-9 | D 57% |
| Ohio Governor | D 58% |
| OH-15 | R 60% |
| NC-3 | R 61% |
| Ohio Senate | D 61% |
| OH-7 | D 65% |
| NC-11 | D 70% |
| NC-1 | D 70% |
| NC-9 | R 71% |
| NC-7 | R 77% |
| OH-8 | R 77% |
| NC-5 | R 78% |
| NC-14 | R 80% |
| OH-10 | R 81% |
| NC-6 | R 82% |
| NC-13 | R 83% |
| OH-1 | D 84% |
Also closing: 18 races the model rates Likely or Safe.
8:00 p.m. ET · 5:00 p.m. PT
Polls close in Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Kansas, Massachusetts, Maryland, Maine, Michigan, Missouri, Mississippi, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas. Some polls in Kansas, Michigan, South Dakota, Texas close an hour later.
| Competitive race | FutureBallot forecast |
|---|---|
| MI-10 | R 50% |
| MI-7 | D 52% |
| PA-8 | R 53% |
| Texas Senate | R 53% |
| AL-2 | R 54% |
| TX-35 | D 55% |
| TX-15 | R 56% |
| Michigan Senate | D 58% |
| MO-2 | R 59% |
| MI-4 | R 60% |
| TX-34 | D 61% |
| PA-10 | D 63% |
| ME-2 | R 63% |
| NJ-7 | D 65% |
| PA-7 | D 65% |
| Maine Senate | R 67% |
| PA-1 | R 68% |
| TX-28 | D 68% |
| Kansas Senate | R 72% |
| TX-23 | R 72% |
| Kansas Governor | R 73% |
| NJ-2 | R 74% |
| TN-5 | R 75% |
| TX-32 | R 78% |
| TN-9 | R 78% |
| New Hampshire Senate | D 79% |
| Texas Governor | R 82% |
| TX-24 | R 83% |
| NH-1 | D 83% |
| OK-5 | R 84% |
Also closing: 158 races the model rates Likely or Safe.
8:30 p.m. ET · 5:30 p.m. PT
Polls close in Arkansas.
| Competitive race | FutureBallot forecast |
|---|---|
| AR-2 | R 60% |
Also closing: 5 races the model rates Likely or Safe.
9:00 p.m. ET · 6:00 p.m. PT
Polls close in Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Wisconsin, Wyoming.
| Competitive race | FutureBallot forecast |
|---|---|
| IA-2 | R 50% |
| NY-17 | D 51% |
| IA-3 | D 51% |
| WI-3 | D 53% |
| CO-5 | R 54% |
| CO-8 | D 55% |
| Iowa Senate | R 56% |
| AZ-6 | D 59% |
| Wisconsin Governor | D 61% |
| IA-1 | D 63% |
| CO-3 | R 64% |
| AZ-1 | D 65% |
| NY-1 | R 65% |
| Nebraska Senate | D 66% |
| WI-1 | R 69% |
| NY-21 | R 71% |
| MN-1 | R 73% |
| AZ-2 | R 75% |
| Iowa Governor | D 75% |
| Minnesota Senate | D 76% |
| NM-2 | D 76% |
| NE-1 | R 78% |
| WI-8 | R 81% |
| NE-2 | D 81% |
| MN-8 | R 82% |
| AZ-5 | R 84% |
Also closing: 60 races the model rates Likely or Safe.
10:00 p.m. ET · 7:00 p.m. PT
Polls close in Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, Nevada, Utah. Some polls in Idaho, North Dakota close an hour later.
| Competitive race | FutureBallot forecast |
|---|---|
| MT-1 | R 59% |
| NV-2 | R 61% |
| Nevada Governor | R 70% |
Also closing: 14 races the model rates Likely or Safe.
11:00 p.m. ET · 8:00 p.m. PT
Polls close in California, Oregon, Washington.
| Competitive race | FutureBallot forecast |
|---|---|
| CA-22 | R 54% |
| WA-3 | R 59% |
| Oregon Governor | D 65% |
| WA-5 | R 83% |
Also closing: 57 races the model rates Likely or Safe.
12:00 a.m. ET · 9:00 p.m. PT
Polls close in Alaska, Hawaii. Some polls in Alaska close an hour later.
| Competitive race | FutureBallot forecast |
|---|---|
| Alaska Senate | R 65% |
Also closing: 3 races the model rates Likely or Safe.
Closing times: The Green Papers, 2026 polling hours. Eastern Standard Time, after daylight saving ends on November 1. A state listed under one hour may keep some polls open later where it spans two time zones; anyone in line when polls close can still vote. Forecasts as published now; this page updates with every publish until Election Day.