Kansas House
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
<1%chance of a Democratic majority
>99%chance of a Republican majority
63seats for a majority, of 125
125 of 125 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 42 seats after November (80% range 37–49) and Republicans 83 (76–88).
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Dale Helwig (R) | official | |
| 2 | Forecast | Avery Rowland (D), Dan Muter (R) | <1% | official |
| 3 | Forecast | Isaiah Harris (D), D J Perry (R) | 5% | official |
| 4 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Rick James (R) | official | |
| 5 | Forecast | Henry Johns (D), Courtney Sappington (R) | <1% | official |
| 6 | Forecast | Frank Henderson (D), Samantha M. Poetter Parshall (R) | <1% | official |
| 7 | Forecast | Taylor Moreland (D), Thomas Douglas Allen (R) | <1% | official |
| 8 | Forecast | Megan Phillips (D), Chris Croft (R) | 14% | official |
| 9 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Fred Gardner (R) | official | |
| 10 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Suzanne Wikle (D) | official | |
| 11 | Forecast | William Kendall (D), Ron Bryce (R) | 3% | official |
| 12 | Forecast | Pete Ferrell (D), Marci Laffen (R) | 2% | official |
| 13 | Forecast | Mark Remmert (D), Duane Droge (R) | <1% | official |
| 14 | Forecast | Sherry Giebler (D), Charlotte Esau (R) | 39% | official |
| 15 | Forecast | Allison Hougland (D), Lauren N. Bohi (R) | 44% | official |
| 16 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Linda Featherston (D) | official | |
| 17 | Forecast | Jo Ella Hoye (D), Jim Eschrich (R) | 99% | official |
| 18 | Forecast | Cindy Neighbor (D), Robert Whitman (R) | 99% | official |
| 19 | Forecast | Stephanie Sawyer Clayton (D), Mark Hermes (R) | >99% | official |
| 20 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Mari-Lynn Poskin (D) | official | |
| 21 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jerry Stogsdill (D) | official | |
| 22 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Reed Krewson (D) | official | |
| 23 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Susan Ruiz (D) | official | |
| 24 | Forecast | Jarrod Ousley (D), Scott Speicker (R) | >99% | official |
| 25 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Rui Xu (D) | official | |
| 26 | Forecast | Laura Johnson (D), Chip VanHouden (R) | 6% | official |
| 27 | Forecast | Sara Kiewiet (D), Sean E. Tarwater (R) | 4% | official |
| 28 | Forecast | Bryan Mouber (D), Alex. N. Bergman (R) | 64% | official |
| 29 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Heather Meyer (D) | official | |
| 30 | Forecast | Amelia Wiederaenders (D), Laura Williams (R) | 29% | official |
| 31 | Forecast | Emily Hane (D), Dennis Grindel (R) | >99% | official |
| 32 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Pam Curtis (D) | official | |
| 33 | Forecast | Emily Blanks (D), Carolyn Caiharr (R) | 9% | official |
| 34 | Forecast | Valdenia C. Winn (D), CeCe Harlin (R) | 99% | official |
| 35 | Forecast | Wanda Brownlee Paige (D), Alex Sanchez (R) | 99% | official |
| 36 | Forecast | Lynn Melton (D), Brian Dickason (R) | >99% | official |
| 37 | Forecast | Melissa M. Oropeza (D), Connie Jo. Henry (R) | >99% | official |
| 38 | Forecast | Richard Paz (D), Timothy H. Johnson (R) | <1% | official |
| 39 | Forecast | Zach Maier (D), Angela Stiens (R) | 36% | official |
| 40 | Forecast | Mika Stilwell (D), David Buehler (R) | 6% | official |
| 41 | Forecast | Jeff Pittman (D), Ann Reinhart (R) | 47% | official |
| 42 | Forecast | Brandon Wendt (D), Lance W. Neelly (R) | <1% | official |
| 43 | Forecast | Kristen Schultz (D), William (Bill) Sutton (R) | 5% | official |
| 44 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Barbara W. Ballard (D) | official | |
| 45 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Mike Amyx (D) | official | |
| 46 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Brooklynne Mosley (D) | official | |
| 47 | Forecast | Mary T. Williams (D), Paula Newell Ellis (R) | 1% | official |
| 48 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Dan Osman (D) | official | |
| 49 | Forecast | Nikki McDonald (D), Tricia Sinclair (R) | 85% | official |
| 50 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Kyle McNorton (R) | official | |
| 51 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Megan D. Steele (R) | official | |
| 52 | Forecast | Toni Scalia (D), Jesse Borjon (R) | 12% | official |
| 53 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Kirk Haskins (D) | official | |
| 54 | Forecast | Chris Tanner (D), Ken Corbet (R) | <1% | official |
| 55 | Forecast | Tobias Schlingensiepen (D), Lanell Griffith (R) | >99% | official |
| 56 | Forecast | Virgil Weigel (D), Elvin Fajardo (R) | 97% | official |
| 57 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | John Alcalá (D) | official | |
| 58 | Forecast | Alexis Simmons (D), Michael H Mathewson (R) | >99% | official |
| 59 | Forecast | Michael Lewis (D), Rebecca Schmoe (R) | <1% | official |
| 60 | Forecast | Maddison D. Glover (D), Mark Schreiber (R) | 5% | official |
| 61 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Francis Awerkamp (R) | official | |
| 62 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Sean M. Willcott (R) | official | |
| 63 | Forecast | Adam Booth (D), Allen Reavis (R) | 3% | official |
| 64 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Lewis (Bill) Bloom (R) | official | |
| 65 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Shawn Chauncey (R) | official | |
| 66 | Forecast | Sydney Carlin (D), Noah Perry (R) | 99% | official |
| 67 | Forecast | Brenda Bandy (D), Stacy Kohlmeier (R) | 48% | official |
| 68 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Nathan (Nate) Butler (R) | official | |
| 69 | Forecast | Miranda Bachman (D), Clarke Sanders (R) | 5% | official |
| 70 | Forecast | Kylie Christine Kilmer (D), Greg H Wilson (R) | 2% | official |
| 71 | Forecast | Jerry Lonergan (D), Steven K. Howe (R) | 4% | official |
| 72 | Forecast | Matthew L Smith (D), Avery Anderson (R) | <1% | official |
| 73 | Forecast | Bobby Joe Robertson Jr. (D), Lori Shultz (R) | 5% | official |
| 74 | Forecast | Michele L. Ediger (D), Mike King (R) | <1% | official |
| 75 | Forecast | Randy Quinn (D), Tyler Coats (R) | 4% | official |
| 76 | Forecast | David A. Claridge (D), Russel Stukey (R) | 3% | official |
| 77 | Forecast | Troy Nicks (D), Kristey S. Williams (R) | 3% | official |
| 78 | Forecast | Tim Lundberg (D), Robyn R. Essex (R) | 18% | official |
| 79 | Forecast | Siobhan McIntyre (D), Webster T Roth (R) | <1% | official |
| 80 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Bill Rhiley (R) | official | |
| 81 | Forecast | Kayden Bennett (D), Blake Carpenter (R) | 4% | official |
| 82 | Forecast | Kyle Beauchamp (D), Leah Howell (R) | <1% | official |
| 83 | Forecast | Brandon J. Whipple (D), Zachary Werhan (R) | 98% | official |
| 84 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Bonita Gooch (D) | official | |
| 85 | Forecast | Mackenzi Truelove (D), Steven Brunk (R) | 6% | official |
| 86 | Forecast | Abi Boatman (D), Kevin Thompson (R) | 98% | official |
| 87 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Susan O Estes (R) | official | |
| 88 | Forecast | Candace Landers (D), Sandy Pickert (R) | 41% | official |
| 89 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Carol Brewer (D) | official | |
| 90 | Forecast | Amy Warhurst (D), Steve Hubert (R) | <1% | official |
| 91 | Forecast | Velma Davis (D), Emil M. Bergquist (R) | <1% | official |
| 92 | Forecast | John Carmichael (D), Vail Fruechting (R) | 99% | official |
| 93 | Forecast | Eli Rueda-Vega (D), Brian Bergkamp (R) | <1% | official |
| 94 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Leo Delperdang (R) | official | |
| 95 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Tom Sawyer (D) | official | |
| 96 | Forecast | Jessica Maldonado (D), Tom Kessler (R) | 15% | official |
| 97 | Forecast | Rhashanna Grant (D), Nick Hoheisel (R) | 1% | official |
| 98 | Forecast | Erika L. Lewis (D), Cyndi Howerton (R) | 1% | official |
| 99 | Forecast | Mark B Barlow (D), Susan Humphries (R) | 5% | official |
| 100 | Forecast | Amanda Mogoi (D), Al Jirak (R) | 4% | official |
| 101 | Forecast | Mary Ann Harmon (D), Kevin D. O'Brien (R) | 4% | official |
| 102 | Forecast | Jason Probst (D), Kyler Sweely (R) | 33% | official |
| 103 | Forecast | Angela Martinez (D), Jordan Chessher (R) | 99% | official |
| 104 | Forecast | Lynnette Krieger-Zook (D), Randy Parks (R) | 1% | official |
| 105 | Forecast | John Burke (D), Jill Ann Ward (R) | 4% | official |
| 106 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Lisa M. Moser (R) | official | |
| 107 | Forecast | Cheri Koochel (D), Dawn Wolf (R) | 2% | official |
| 108 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Brandon Woodard (D) | official | |
| 109 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Troy L. Waymaster (R) | official | |
| 110 | Forecast | Mark Schaukowitch (D), Cody Ward (R) | <1% | official |
| 111 | Forecast | Melanie McMillan (D), Barb Wasinger (R) | <1% | official |
| 112 | Forecast | Rhys Froetschner (D), Sherri Brantley (R) | <1% | official |
| 113 | Forecast | Jo Ann Roth (D), Brett Fairchild (R) | <1% | official |
| 114 | Forecast | Alan Albers (D), Kevin D. Schwertfeger (R) | 2% | official |
| 115 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Gary L. White (R) | official | |
| 116 | Forecast | Nathan Bales (D), Kyle D. Hoffman (R) | 2% | official |
| 117 | Forecast | Brandon Holland (D), Adam Turk (R) | 6% | official |
| 118 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Jim Minnix (R) | official | |
| 119 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Jason W. Goetz (R) | official | |
| 120 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Adam Smith (R) | official | |
| 121 | Forecast | Kelsey Stock (D), Thomas Palenske (R) | 24% | official |
| 122 | Forecast | Amy Arteaga (Write-in) (D), Lon E. Pishny (R) | 2% | official |
| 123 | Forecast | Becca Burnfin (D), Bob Lewis (R) | <1% | official |
| 124 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Marty Long (R) | official | |
| 125 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Shannon G Francis (R) | official |