Ohio Senate
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
17 of 33 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 10 seats after November (80% range 9–12) and Republicans 23 (21–24).
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Craig S. Riedel (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 2 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 3 | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) | Stacie A. Baker (D), Michele Reynolds (R) | 13% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 4 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 5 | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) | Jeffrey Harris (D), Phil Plummer (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 6 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 7 | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) | Cara Jacob (D), Zac Haines (R) | 10% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 8 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 9 | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) | Catherine Ingram (D), Linda Matthews (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 10 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 11 | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) | Paula Hicks-Hudson (D), James Nowak (R), Kenneth W Sharp (Libertarian) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 12 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 13 | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) | Joe Miller (D), Gayle Manning (R) | 24% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 14 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 15 | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) | Latyna M. Humphrey (D), Joseph Healy (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 16 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 17 | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) | Brian A. Deer (D), Shane Wilkin (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 18 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 19 | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) | Janet Wagner (D), Ryan Rivers (R) | 5% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 20 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 21 | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) | Kent Smith (D), Mikhail Alterman (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 22 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 23 | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) | Bride Rose Sweeney (D), Robert E. Dintaman (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 24 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 25 | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) | Bill DeMora (D), Don Roberts (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 26 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 27 | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) | Mike Roberto (D), Steve Demetriou (R) | 41% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 28 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 29 | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) | Thomas West (D), Jane Timken (R) | 3% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 30 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 31 | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) | Laura Sirot (D), Al Landis (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 32 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 33 | Forecast | Michael L. Kripchak (D), Al Cutrona (R) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |