Illinois House
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
>99%chance of a Democratic majority
<1%chance of a Republican majority
60seats for a majority, of 118
118 of 118 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 80 seats after November (80% range 77–83) and Republicans 38 (35–41).
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Aaron M. Ortiz (D) | wikipedia primary results | |
| 2 | Forecast | Elizabeth Hernandez (D), Laura Hruska (R) | >99% | wikipedia primary results |
| 3 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Eva-Dina Delgado (D) | wikipedia primary results | |
| 4 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Lilian Jiménez (D) | wikipedia primary results | |
| 5 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Kimberly du Buclet (D) | wikipedia primary results | |
| 6 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Sonya Harper (D) | wikipedia primary results | |
| 7 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Chris Welch (D) | wikipedia primary results | |
| 8 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Shantel Franklin (D) | wikipedia primary results | |
| 9 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Yolonda Morris (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 10 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jawaharial "Omar" Williams (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 11 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Ann M. Williams (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 12 | Forecast | Paul Kendrick (D), Justin J. Kumar (R) | 99% | wikipedia primary results |
| 13 | Forecast | Demerike Palecek (D), Terry Nguyen Le (R) | >99% | wikipedia primary results |
| 14 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Kelly M. Cassidy (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 15 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Michael J. Kelly (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 16 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Kevin John Olickal (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 17 | Forecast | Jennifer Gong-Gershowitz (D), James "Jim" Geldermann (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 18 | Forecast | Robyn Gabel (D), Pete Donaghue (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 19 | Forecast | Lindsey LaPointe (D), John "Jz" Zimmers (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 20 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Brad Stephens (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 21 | Forecast | Abdelnasser Rashid (D), Eric Su (R) | 98% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 22 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Angie Guerrero-Cuellar (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 23 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Edgar Gonzalez Jr. (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 24 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Theresa Mah (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 25 | Forecast | Curtis J. Tarver II (D), Antoinette Jewel Simmons (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 26 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Kam Buckner (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 27 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Justin Q. Slaughter (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 28 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Robert "Bob" Rita (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 29 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Thaddeus Jones (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 30 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | William "Will" Davis (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 31 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Michael "Mike" Crawford (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 32 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Lisa J. Davis (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 33 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Marcus C. Evans Jr. (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 34 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Cleopatra "Cleo" Cowley (D), Rep. Nicholas K. Smith (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 35 | Forecast | Mary Gill (D), David A. Dewar (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 36 | Forecast | Rick Ryan (D), David Sheppard (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 37 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Patrick Sheehan (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 38 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Debbie Meyers-Martin (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 39 | Forecast | Will Guzzardi (D), Cesar A. Guillen (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 40 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Miguel Alvelo-Rivera (D), Rep. Jaime M. Andrade Jr. (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 41 | Forecast | Janet Yang Rohr (D), Ajay Gupta (R) | 98% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 42 | Forecast | Margaret A. Delarosa (D), Stephanie W. Trussell (R) | 98% | wikipedia primary results |
| 43 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Anna Moeller (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 44 | Forecast | Fred Crespo (D), Ralph Black (R) | 98% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 45 | Forecast | Martha "Marti" Deuter (D), Gina Parrilli (R) | 96% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 46 | Forecast | Diane Blair-Sherlock (D), Pedro Jovany Mendoza (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 47 | Forecast | Erica Bray-Parker (D), Robert A. Vrankovich (R) | 71% | wikipedia primary results |
| 48 | Forecast | Amanda Zahorak (D), Jennifer Sanalitro (R) | 7% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 49 | Forecast | Maura Hirschauer (D), John Paul Augustynowicz (R) | 97% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 50 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Barbara Hernandez (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 51 | Forecast | Jenny Levin (D), Lori Smith (R) | 96% | wikipedia primary results |
| 52 | Forecast | Maria Peterson (D), Martin McLaughlin (R) | 56% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 53 | Forecast | Nicolle Grasse (D), Elizabeth Bauer (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 54 | Forecast | Mary Beth Canty (D), Joseph M. Tracy (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 55 | Forecast | Justin Cochran (D), Joseph Johnson (R) | 97% | wikipedia primary results |
| 56 | Forecast | Michelle Mussman (D), Rhys Read (R) | 97% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 57 | Forecast | Tracy Katz Muhl (D), Daniel T. Behr (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 58 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Bob Morgan (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 59 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Daniel Didech (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 60 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Rita Mayfield (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 61 | Forecast | Joyce Mason (D), Tina Marie Durrant (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 62 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Laura Faver Dias (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 63 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Steven Reick (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 64 | Forecast | Aj Johnson (D), Tom Weber (R) | 3% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 65 | Forecast | Ricky Rivard (D), Dan Ugaste (R) | 16% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 66 | Forecast | Suzanne Ness (D), Laurie Parman (R) | 95% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 67 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Maurice A. West II (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 68 | Forecast | Dave Vella (D), Kathy Easton (R) | 98% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 69 | Forecast | Peter Janko (D), Joe C. Sosnowski (R) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 70 | Forecast | Veronica Garcia-Martinez (D), Jeff Keicher (R) | 4% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 71 | Forecast | Kermit Thomas (D), Dan Swanson (R) | 4% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 72 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Gregg Johnson (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 73 | Forecast | Nicole Dopler (D), Ryan Spain (R) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 74 | Forecast | Nolan Kemp (D), Bradley J. Fritts (R) | 1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 75 | Forecast | Caroline McCree (D), Jed Davis (R) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 76 | Forecast | Amy "Murri" Briel (D), Liz Bishop (R) | 89% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 77 | Forecast | Norma Hernandez (D), Anthony Airdo (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 78 | Forecast | Camille Lilly (D), Julian-Jahleel Randolph Jemison (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 79 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Jackie Haas (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 80 | Forecast | Anthony DeLuca (D), Adam M. Beaty (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 81 | Forecast | Anne Stava (D), Laura Hois (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 82 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Nicole La Ha (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 83 | Forecast | Matt Hanson (D), Jesse Rodriguez (R) | 98% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 84 | Forecast | Saba Haider (D), Brian Scopa (R) | 98% | wikipedia primary results |
| 85 | Forecast | Dagmara "Dee" Avelar (D), Chris Metcalfe (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 86 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Lawrence "Larry" M. Walsh Jr. (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 87 | Decided: only a Republican is running | William E Hauter (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 88 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Regan Deering (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 89 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Tony M. McCombie (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 90 | Decided: only a Republican is running | John M. Cabello (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 91 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Sharon Chung (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 92 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jehan Gordon-Booth (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 93 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Travis Weaver (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 94 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Joshua S. Higgins (R), Rep. Norine K. Hammond (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 95 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Mike Coffey (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 96 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Sue Scherer (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 97 | Forecast | Jessica Dixon Heitman (D), Gabby Shanahan (R) | 93% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 98 | Forecast | Natalie A. Manley (D), Nona Parker (R) | 98% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 99 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Kyle A. Moore (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 100 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Christopher "C.d." Davidsmeyer (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 101 | Forecast | Douglas Fagan (D), Chris G. Miller (R) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 102 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Adam M. Niemerg (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 103 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Carol Ammons (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 104 | Forecast | Mary Catherine Roberson (D), Brandun Schweizer (R) | 54% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 105 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Tim Ruestman (R) | wikipedia primary results | |
| 106 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Jason R. Bunting (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 107 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Brad Halbrook (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 108 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Wayne A. Rosenthal (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 109 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Charlie Meier (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 110 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Blaine Wilhour (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 111 | Forecast | Rosetta "Rosie" Brown (D), Amy Elik (R) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 112 | Forecast | Katie Stuart (D), Jimmy Ford (R) | 97% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 113 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jay C. Hoffman (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 114 | Forecast | George McClellan Jr. (D), Kevin Schmidt (R) | 37% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 115 | Decided: only a Republican is running | David H. Friess (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 116 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Dave Severin (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 117 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Patrick Windhorst (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 118 | Forecast | Homer "Chip" Markel (D), Scott Doody (R) | 3% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |