Connecticut Senate
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
36 of 36 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 27 seats after November (80% range 24–30) and Republicans 9 (6–12).
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | John W. Fonfara (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 2 | Forecast | Maryam Khan (D), Timothy Knotts (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 3 | Forecast | Saud Anwar (D), Eliott R Hughes (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 4 | Forecast | Md Rahman (D), Jenn Jennings (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 5 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Derek Slap (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 6 | Forecast | Rick Lopes (D), Tremell Collins (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 7 | Forecast | David W. Kiner (D), John A Kissel (R) | 22% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 8 | Forecast | Paul Honig (D), Michael R. Criss (R) | 87% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 9 | Forecast | Matthew Lesser (D), Grant W. Polomsky (R) | 98% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 10 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Gary Winfield (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 11 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Alphonse Paolillo Jr. (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 12 | Forecast | Christine Cohen (D), Lisa Deane (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 13 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jonathan W. Fazzino (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 14 | Forecast | James Maroney (D), Owen T. Weaver (R) | 98% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 15 | Forecast | Joan V. Hartley (D), Ruben Rodriguez (R) | 97% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 16 | Forecast | Jack Perry (D), Rob Sampson (R) | 12% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 17 | Forecast | Jorge Cabrera (D), John-Paul Dorais (R) | 97% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 18 | Forecast | Joe de la Cruz (D), Heather Somers (R) | 5% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 19 | Forecast | Catherine Osten (D), Jason Guidone (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 20 | Forecast | Martha E. Marx (D), Ronald J. LaBonte (R) | 98% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 21 | Forecast | Carolann Reid (D), Jason Perillo (R) | 4% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 22 | Forecast | Sujata Gadkar-Wilcox (D), Scott M Modlin (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 23 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Herron Keyon Gaston (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 24 | Forecast | Julie Kushner (D), Melissa Lindsey (R) | 96% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 25 | Forecast | Bob Duff (D), Justin Perry (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 26 | Forecast | Samantha Nestor (D), Alma Sarelli (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 27 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Pat Billie Miller (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 28 | Forecast | Rob Blanchard (D), Amybeth Laroche (R) | 38% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 29 | Forecast | Mae Flexer (D), Chris Reddy (R) | 89% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 30 | Forecast | Aaron Zimmer (D), Stephen G. Harding (R) | 28% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 31 | Forecast | Laurel LaPorte-Grimes (D), Henri Martin (R) | 4% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 32 | Forecast | Matt Knickerbocker (D), Eric C Berthel (R) | 10% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 33 | Forecast | Norm Needleman (D), Charles Ferraro (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 34 | Forecast | Brandi Mandato (D), Paul Cicarella (R) | 11% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 35 | Forecast | Ethan Werstler (D), Jeffrey Gordon (R) | 33% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 36 | Forecast | Jill Oberlander (D), Joe Kelly (R) | 62% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |