TX-10 · House

The district, in brief

Texas's 10th is a new district drawn in the state's 2025 mid-decade redistricting, stretching from downtown and western Austin through the Bryan–College Station area to rural east-central Texas around Crockett, Livingston and Madisonville. On these lines the text records Donald Trump at 60.5% and Ted Cruz at 58.4% in 2024.

The seat is open: Republican incumbent Michael McCaul, re-elected in 2024 with 63.6%, is not seeking reelection. The Republican nominee is Chris Gober, a political-law attorney and former director and chief lawyer of Elon Musk's America PAC, who won a ten-way primary with 51.2% over Ben Bius (14.0%). The text records that Gober worked on the 2021 and 2025 Republican redistricting efforts and that $1,524,821.91 of his $2,265,179.06 in primary receipts (approximately 67.3%) came from himself. He is endorsed by Trump, Cruz, Abbott, Speaker Johnson, Scalise, Emmer, McCaul and Club for Growth. The Democratic nominee is Caitlin Rourk, a U.S. Army veteran and former DCI Group director, who initially filed in the 31st district and won her primary with 60.8% over Dawn Marshall (22.6%); she is endorsed by the Texas AFL-CIO and both Austin papers. As of April 28, 2026 Gober had raised $2,271,919 ($262,800 on hand), Rourk $243,994 ($55,860 on hand).

Every rater with a ranking calls the seat R: Decision Desk HQ (September 25, 2026), the Cook Political Report (February 6, 2025), Inside Elections (March 7, 2025) and Sabato's Crystal Ball (September 18, 2025); Silver Bulletin is listed with no ranking shown.

A paragraph quoting a model forecast from the day this brief was written is omitted; the current forecast is at the top of this page.

The facts, each beside its sentence

Not in the source: No general-election polls are recorded, and the model's basis says no district polls.; The Silver Bulletin row in the ratings table carries a date but no ranking.; Ratings are only given as 'R' with no Lean/Likely/Safe gradation.; The text does not say which territory the new 10th took from which old districts.; No general-election fundraising later than April 28, 2026 is given.

Read from the district's section of Wikipedia's state page (CC BY-SA), archived as efe72be7e14a; written by claude-fable-5-1 (batch reader) on 2026-09-30 and checked mechanically: every quote occurs verbatim in the archived text, every number in the brief occurs in the inputs. No probability here is the reader's.

Who holds the seat now

Michael T. McCaul (Republican), in this chamber since 2005, 11 terms. Committees: House Committee on Homeland Security (Vice Chair); House Committee on Foreign Affairs.

From the congress-legislators dataset (CC0), archived as ae8cb9477c48. For a Senate race this lists both of the state's senators; the one whose term ends in the election year holds the seat on the ballot. For a House district redrawn for 2026 it is the member elected under the old lines with this number, who may be running elsewhere; the dossier above names who is running here.

How it has voted for president

A shift of 2.4 points toward the Republicans from 2016 to 2024. county returns placed on the current lines by 2020 block population; MEDSL county file (2016), an MIT-licensed county file (2020, checked against certified state results) and MEDSL precinct returns (2024). For a district split across counties this is an estimate, and where the state published the exact 2024 figure for these lines, that exact figure is the one the model uses.

Who are the voters?

Of about 503,161 adults 25 and over. In 2020 the district voted 42.7% Democratic (two-party) for president. With the same preferences and a 2022-style midterm turnout, it would vote 43.5% Democratic: the midterm electorate alone moves the margin 1.5 points toward Democrats. Group shares are estimated from how results vary across the state's census tracts (ecological inference, anchored to Pew's 2020 validated-voter figures) and calibrated to this district's actual 2020 vote; turnout is the Census survey's state rate by race and national rate by education, whose state samples carry margins of several points.

Not answered here: how each group will vote in 2026. These are 2020 preferences; this profile is description, not yet an input to the forecast.

The money

FEC bulk candidate summaries through July 30, 2026; $1,594,285 of independent expenditures for or against these candidates this cycle (FEC Schedule E, types 24E and 24A), which is the parties' and outside groups' own revealed view of whether this seat is in play.

The district in numbers

ACS 5-year 2023, assembled from census tracts by the 2020 population of their blocks inside the current lines, because the Bureau has not tabulated these lines; medians are population-weighted means of tract medians. Unemployment is the BLS county series placed on the district by block population, not seasonally adjusted, so changes are same-month comparisons. Income, transfers and jobs are BEA county accounts placed the same way, compared with the average district. Every other figure is a named column of a named table in the Bureau's summary file, archived before it was read. This is what a reader knows about a district before looking at a poll; the model does not yet use it, and whether it should is a registered question.

Who is favoured, and by how much?

The 90% interval runs from -29.3 to +0.5 points, D-R. It is wide because this district has never been polled.

What is this built on?

A model trained on every contested House race 2012-2024 predicts this district's lean from its own record: presidential and House results on the current lines, incumbency, both candidates' prior offices, outside and party money before 1 October, demographics and public-assistance shares from the Census release before the election, local unemployment and income, and religious tradition. The national margin comes from presidential approval, the economy, the midterm penalty and the generic ballot corrected for its measured lean. Draws share national and state errors, so the seat total and this district come from the same simulation.

Not answered here: district polls, which are not yet folded in.

Why does the model say this?

Each figure is how far this district's predicted lean moves when that one feature is set to the typical value across 2026 districts, everything else held: 2024 presidential lean (R+21.5): 12.5 pts toward the Republican; 2024 House lean: 4.4 pts toward the Republican; outside money balance: 0.6 pts toward the Democrat; total outside/party money: 0.5 pts toward the Democrat; military jobs share (0.3%): 0.4 pts toward the Republican.

How sure is it, and of what?

Total sd 9.07 points, made of the seat's own volatility 91%, correlated polling error 9%. The decomposition is stored with the forecast rather than reconstructed, so a probability whose dominant input is a placeholder is visibly that.

Not answered here: a nowcast. 'If ballots were cast today' needs something that observes today, and for a House district nothing does. Publishing the election-day figure under both labels would make one forecast look like two.

How was this number made?

Run 6f211e6f-2bdc-4dda-8f72-81fc628dab0b, house_district_prior/0.2.0, as of 2026-10-02. Promoted by a pre-registered gate: on 2016-2022 its Brier score was 0.036 against 0.049 for the previous method, and on a single 2024 run 0.023 against 0.032 (experiments/district_gate_result.md, with an independent review).