West Virginia House
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
<1%chance of a Democratic majority
>99%chance of a Republican majority
51seats for a majority, of 100
100 of 100 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 12 seats after November (80% range 10–16) and Republicans 88 (84–90). In 5 seats a Democrat or Republican faces only independents or minor-party candidates and is counted as winning; in 2018 to 2024 such candidates lost about 3% of the time, mostly to sitting independents.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Forecast | Pat McGeehan (R), Quincy Wilson (D) | 3% | official |
| 2 | Forecast | Daniel Joseph Day (D), Tony Viola (R) | <1% | official |
| 3 | Forecast | Dave Cantrell (independent), Jimmy Willis (R), Mike Robinson (D) | <1% | official |
| 4 | Forecast | Derek Ennis (R), Joe Jividen (D) | <1% | official |
| 5 | Forecast | Beth Hinebaugh (R), Karen Shuler Stakem (D) | 94% | official |
| 6 | Forecast | Cody Cumpston (D), Don DeWitt (R) | 13% | official |
| 7 | Forecast | Charles R. Sheedy Sr. (R), Sarah Reggi (D) | <1% | official |
| 8 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Steven L. Smith (R) | official | |
| 9 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Kerry G. Murphy (R) | official | |
| 10 | Forecast | Christopher Jones (D), Justin Beanard (R) | 6% | official |
| 11 | Forecast | Daniel Miller (D), Jeff S. Sandy (R) | 9% | official |
| 12 | Forecast | Charles D. Hartzog (R), Dennis V. Rempel (D), Stephen Thomas Smith (Libertarian) | 10% | official |
| 13 | Forecast | James Hendershot Jr. (independent), Marley Umensetter (D), Melissa McCrady (R) | 5% | official |
| 14 | Forecast | Crystal Butcher (D), Dave Foggin (R) | <1% | official |
| 15 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Erica J. Moore (R), Tye Ward (Libertarian) | official | |
| 16 | Forecast | Frederick Happy Joe Parsons (R), Jason M. Barr (D) | 3% | official |
| 17 | Forecast | Jonathan Adam Pinson (R), Kathryn "Kat" Weiland (D) | 4% | official |
| 18 | Forecast | Jim Butler (R), Jonathan Hersman (D) | <1% | official |
| 19 | Forecast | Kathie Hess Crouse (R), Nolan Rose (D) | 3% | official |
| 20 | Forecast | Sarah Drennan (R), Tonya Patrick Shuler (D) | <1% | official |
| 21 | Forecast | C. D. Caldwell (R), Michael G. Mosteller II (D) | <1% | official |
| 22 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Aaron Holley (R) | official | |
| 23 | Forecast | Amanda Beth Beach-Burge (D), Evan Worrell (R) | <1% | official |
| 24 | Forecast | Patrick Lucas (R), Steve Williams (D) | 4% | official |
| 25 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Sean Hornbuckle (D) | official | |
| 26 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Matthew Rohrbach (R) | official | |
| 27 | Forecast | Gordon Ramey II (R), Ric Griffith (D) | <1% | official |
| 28 | Forecast | Brooke Smith (D), Ryan Browning (R) | 3% | official |
| 29 | Forecast | Henry Corby Dillon (R), Wendy Coleman (D) | 1% | official |
| 30 | Forecast | Jeff Eldridge (R), Ryan Cledith Elkins (D) | <1% | official |
| 31 | Forecast | George C. Barker (D), Margitta Mazzocchi (R) | 3% | official |
| 32 | Forecast | Jennifer Bias Bryant (D), Josh Holstein (R) | <1% | official |
| 33 | Forecast | Chris Tipton (R), Leroy Dehart (independent), Michael B. (Mickey) Browning (D) | 4% | official |
| 34 | Forecast | Barry C. Marcum (R), Tara "Babyt" Sexton (D) | 3% | official |
| 35 | Forecast | John Morgan (R), Rachael Hawkins-Church (D) | 3% | official |
| 36 | Forecast | David Green (R), Katelynn Jordan (D) | <1% | official |
| 37 | Forecast | Marty Gearheart (R), Treyvon Simmons (D) | <1% | official |
| 38 | Forecast | Joe C. Ellington Jr. (R), Randa D Faulkner (D) | <1% | official |
| 39 | Forecast | Brianna A Pearcy (D), Samuel Lusk (R) | <1% | official |
| 40 | Forecast | Jennifer Lea Gilkerson (D), Roy G. Cooper (R) | <1% | official |
| 41 | Forecast | Curtis Shaver (D), Jordan Allen Maynor (R) | <1% | official |
| 42 | Forecast | Courtney Vandall (D), John K Jordan (R) | <1% | official |
| 43 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Christopher W Toney (R) | official | |
| 44 | Forecast | Carl Bill Roop (R), Christina Baisden (D) | 4% | official |
| 45 | Forecast | Eric Brooks (R), Joseph Golden (D) | 3% | official |
| 46 | Forecast | Jeff Campbell (R), Sarah Umberger (D) | <1% | official |
| 47 | Forecast | Ray Canterbury (R), Sarah Morris (D) | <1% | official |
| 48 | Forecast | Jourdan Deitz (D), Mackenzie Holdren (R) | <1% | official |
| 49 | Forecast | Byron Tucker Jr. (D), Newt McCutcheon (R) | <1% | official |
| 50 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Mathew Anderson (D), Tom Louisos (independent) | official | |
| 51 | Forecast | Colby A. Lopez (D), Cy Persinger (R) | <1% | official |
| 52 | Forecast | Joyce Brown (D), Tresa Howell (R) | 1% | official |
| 53 | Forecast | Keena Mullins (D), Tristan Leavitt (R) | 1% | official |
| 54 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Mike Pushkin (D), Tara Martinez (independent) | official | |
| 55 | Forecast | Anthony Dasaro (D), Jb Akers (R) | 2% | official |
| 56 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Kayla Young (D) | official | |
| 57 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Hollis T. Lewis (D) | official | |
| 58 | Forecast | Marisa Jackson (D), Walter Hall (R) | 9% | official |
| 59 | Forecast | Andy Shamblin (R), Howard "Cookie" Claytor III (D) | 7% | official |
| 60 | Forecast | Dana J. Ferrell (R), Lynette Shaw (D) | 4% | official |
| 61 | Forecast | Dean Jeffries (R), Sue Crawford (D) | 3% | official |
| 62 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Roger Hanshaw (R) | official | |
| 63 | Forecast | Kevin Westley Carpenter (D), Lori Cowger Dittman (R) | 4% | official |
| 64 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Adam Burkhammer (R) | official | |
| 65 | Forecast | Carl "Robbie" Martin (R), Mira Tanner-Hughes (D) | <1% | official |
| 66 | Forecast | Danielle M. Dougherty (D), Jonathan B. Kyle (R) | <1% | official |
| 67 | Forecast | Les Mallow (R), Mandy Weirich (D) | 20% | official |
| 68 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Chris Phillips (R) | official | |
| 69 | Forecast | Danny Hamrick (R), Jocelyn Blackwell (D) | 5% | official |
| 70 | Forecast | Paul J. Howe III (R), Shannon Welsh (D) | 13% | official |
| 71 | Forecast | Robert "Rob" Garcia (D), Tim McNeely (R) | 8% | official |
| 72 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Clay Riley (R) | official | |
| 73 | Forecast | Frank Sturm (R), Kit (Kathleen) Ford (D) | 5% | official |
| 74 | Forecast | Frankie Delapas (D), Guy Ward (R) | <1% | official |
| 75 | Forecast | Linda Longstreth (D), Phil Mallow (R) | 7% | official |
| 76 | Forecast | Jon Dodds (R), Rick Garcia (D) | 79% | official |
| 77 | Forecast | Joe Statler (R), Patricia Andrea Bunner (D) | 5% | official |
| 78 | Forecast | Geno Chiarelli (R), Michael Wendell (D) | 7% | official |
| 79 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Evan Hansen (D), Paige Reiring (Mountain) | official | |
| 80 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Melissa Ann Deserio (Constitution), Olivia Miller (D) | official | |
| 81 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Anitra Hamilton (D) | official | |
| 82 | Forecast | David McCormick (R), Eddie Wagoner (D) | 13% | official |
| 83 | Decided: only a Republican is running | George Street (R) | official | |
| 84 | Forecast | Colin Savage (D), D.r. Buck Jennings (R) | 3% | official |
| 85 | Forecast | Alex D. Bosley (R), Deborah K. Stiles (D) | 3% | official |
| 86 | Forecast | Betsy Orndoff-Sayers (D), Steven Schetrom (R) | 4% | official |
| 87 | Forecast | Gary G. Howell (R), Rebecca Holler (D) | 3% | official |
| 88 | Forecast | Dorothy L. Kengla (D), Rick Hillenbrand (R) | <1% | official |
| 89 | Forecast | David Cannon (R), J R Hepworth (D) | <1% | official |
| 90 | Forecast | Ashley Braner (D), George Miller (R) | 3% | official |
| 91 | Forecast | Chris Clagett (R), David Michaels (D) | 6% | official |
| 92 | Forecast | Brad Noll (D), Michael Hite (R) | 5% | official |
| 93 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Mike Hornby (R) | official | |
| 94 | Forecast | Donald Lee Bennett (R), Elizabeth Sanchez (D) | 6% | official |
| 95 | Forecast | Charles "Chuck" Horst (R), Kara Waldeck (D) | <1% | official |
| 96 | Forecast | Katie Rose (R), Lisa Cathro (D) | <1% | official |
| 97 | Forecast | Lucia Valentine (D), S. Chris Anders (R) | 12% | official |
| 98 | Forecast | Joe Funkhouser (R), Marta Beck (D) | <1% | official |
| 99 | Forecast | Regina Dyer (D), Wayne M. Clark (R) | 3% | official |
| 100 | Forecast | Jenny Thacker (D), William Ridenour (R) | 15% | official |