Delaware House
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
41 of 41 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 28 seats after November (80% range 26–30) and Republicans 13 (11–15).
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Forecast | Nnamdi O. Chukwuocha (D), Lisa McInnis (R) | 99% | official |
| 2 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Michelle H. Booker (D) | official | |
| 3 | Forecast | Branden Fletcher-Dominguez (D), Shawn L. Dottery (R), Dexter "Dizzy" Bland (Ind Pty of DE) | 99% | official |
| 4 | Forecast | Gregg Lindner (D), Dan Zitofsky (R) | 14% | official |
| 5 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Kendra Johnson (D) | official | |
| 6 | Forecast | Rachel "Rae" Krantz (D), Tanya Hettler (R) | >99% | official |
| 7 | Forecast | Larry Lambert (D), Shane Stoneman (R) | >99% | official |
| 8 | Forecast | Sherae'a "Rae" Moore (D), Gary Taylor (R) | 99% | official |
| 9 | Forecast | Ayanna Khan-Flowers (D), Jamar Money (R) | 50% | official |
| 10 | Forecast | Melanie Ross Levin (D), Dolores Dunleavy (R) | >99% | official |
| 11 | Forecast | Tori Parker (D), Jeffrey N. Spiegelman (R) | 2% | official |
| 12 | Forecast | Krista Griffith (D), Steve Pickering (R) | >99% | official |
| 13 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | DeShanna U. Neal (D) | official | |
| 14 | Forecast | Claire Snyder-Hall (D), Mike Simpler (R) | 97% | official |
| 15 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Kamela T. Smith (D) | official | |
| 16 | Forecast | Pamela Salaam (D), Enala A. Mwashitete (R) | 99% | official |
| 17 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Melissa Minor Brown (D) | official | |
| 18 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Sophie Phillips (D) | official | |
| 19 | Forecast | Kim Williams (D), Janyce Colmery (R) | >99% | official |
| 20 | Forecast | Alonna Berry (D), Gene Dvornick (R) | 88% | official |
| 21 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Frank Burns (D) | official | |
| 22 | Forecast | Alex Green (D), Mike Smith (R) | 19% | official |
| 23 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Dave Redlawsk (D) | official | |
| 24 | Forecast | Ed Osienski (D), Stephen P. Ondich (R) | >99% | official |
| 25 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Cyndie Romer (D) | official | |
| 26 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Madinah Wilson-Anton (D) | official | |
| 27 | Forecast | Eric Morrison (D), Mary "Penny" Kubin (R) | 98% | official |
| 28 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Tyeisha "Tye" Grier (D) | official | |
| 29 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | William Bush (D) | official | |
| 30 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Wm Shannon Morris (R) | official | |
| 31 | Forecast | Sean M. Lynn (D), Anton Brogden (R) | 99% | official |
| 32 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Kerri Evelyn Harris (D) | official | |
| 33 | Forecast | Joshua Pennington (D), Morgan Hudson (R) | 4% | official |
| 34 | Forecast | Annie Norman (D), Lyndon D. Yearick (R) | 16% | official |
| 35 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Jesse R. Vanderwende (R) | official | |
| 36 | Forecast | Andrew "Andy" Gorlich (D), Bryan William Shupe (R) | 1% | official |
| 37 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Valerie Jones Giltner (R) | official | |
| 38 | Forecast | Maureen Madden (D), Carlie Carey (R) | 4% | official |
| 39 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Daniel B. Short (R) | official | |
| 40 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Timothy Dale Dukes (R) | official | |
| 41 | Forecast | Ryan Stuckey (D), John Atkins (R) | 1% | official |