Nevada Senate
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
11 of 21 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 12 seats after November (80% range 11–12) and Republicans 9 (9–10). In 1 seat a Democrat or Republican faces only independents or minor-party candidates and is counted as winning; in 2018 to 2024 such candidates lost about 3% of the time, mostly to sitting independents.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 2 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Edgar Flores (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 3 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 4 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 5 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 6 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 7 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 8 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | George E. Harris (R), Jamie S. Miller (independent), Robert Morris (independent) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 9 | Forecast | Maria Thompson (R), Melanie Scheible (D) | 95% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 10 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Fabian Donate (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 11 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 12 | Forecast | Julie Ann Pazina (D), Rafael Arroyo (R) | 93% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 13 | Forecast | Charlene Young (independent), Matthew R. Buehler (R), Richard "Skip" Daly (D) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 14 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Ira D. Hansen (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 15 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 16 | Forecast | Chrystal L. Roll (D), Lisa Krasner (R) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 17 | Forecast | Lynne Ballatore (D), Robin L. Titus (R) | 5% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 18 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 19 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 20 | Forecast | Calvin Sandoval (D), Danielle Gallant (R) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 21 | Forecast | Al Rojas (R), James Ohrenschall (D) | 98% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |