Michigan Senate
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
38 of 38 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 20 seats after November (80% range 17–23) and Republicans 18 (15–21). Neither party wins a majority in 14% of the simulations: the parties can tie at 19 seats each. Who then runs the chamber depends on the state: a coalition, a power-sharing agreement, or, in some Senates, the lieutenant governor's tie-breaking vote.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) | Justin Onwenu (D), Patrick O'Connell (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 2 | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) | Abbas Alawieh (D), Harry Sawicki (R) | 98% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 3 | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) | John Conyers (D), Mark Ashley Price (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 4 | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) | Darrin Camilleri (D), Marcie Grzywacz (R) | 58% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 5 | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) | Matt Koleszar (D), Estelle Oliansky (R) | 96% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 6 | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) | Mary Cavanagh (D), Joi Pokerwinski (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 7 | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) | Jason Hoskins (D), Anthony Paesano (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 8 | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) | Dayna Polehanki (D), Kenneth D. Massey (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 9 | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) | Theresa Brooks (D), Michael Webber (R) | 36% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 10 | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) | Natalie Price (D), Michelle Nard (R) | 97% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 11 | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) | Veronica Klinefelt (D), Johnnie S. Townsend (R) | 55% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 12 | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) | Kevin Hertel (D), John Goldwater (R) | 72% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 13 | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) | Sean Carlson (D), Ryan Berman (R) | 90% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 14 | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) | Sue Shink (D), Tawn Shawnelle Beliger (R) | 91% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 15 | Forecast | Felicia Brabec (D), Jason Rogers (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 16 | Forecast | Deandre Barnes (D), Joseph Bellino (R) | 1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 17 | Forecast | Ashleigh Baker (D), Jonathan Lindsey (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 18 | Forecast | Thomas A. Albert (R), Anthony Pennock (D) | 1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 19 | Forecast | Julie M. Rogers (D), Shaun Young (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 20 | Forecast | Dale Murney (D), Chris Moraitis (R) | 4% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 21 | Forecast | Sarah Anthony (D), Patrick O'Connell (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 22 | Forecast | Robert Hower (D), Mike Murphy (R) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 23 | Forecast | Greg Hill (D), Donni Steele (R) | 7% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 24 | Forecast | Edlira Sako (D), Douglas Chester Wozniak (R) | 1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 25 | Forecast | April L. Osentoski (D), Andrew Beeler (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 26 | Forecast | Brendan J. Johnson (D), Matthew Bierlein (R) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 27 | Forecast | John D. Cherry (D), Bill Bain (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 28 | Forecast | Rashida Harrison (D), Julie L. DeRose (R) | 97% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 29 | Forecast | Abbie Groff-Blaszak (D), Brady A. Middleton (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 30 | Forecast | Carol Glanville (D), Mark E. Huizenga (R) | 49% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 31 | Forecast | Chris Kleinjans (D), John Wetzel (R) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 32 | Forecast | Rebecca Amidon (D), Kim Cole (R) | 44% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 33 | Forecast | Stan Opal (D), Gina Johnsen (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 34 | Forecast | Tyler Landgraf (D), Roger Hauck (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 35 | Forecast | Chedrick Greene (D), Jason Tunney (R) | 96% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 36 | Forecast | Mark W. Yonkman (D), Michele Hoitenga (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 37 | Forecast | Kate Gallup (D), John Damoose (R) | 9% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 38 | Forecast | Kelli J. Van Ginhoven (D), David Prestin (R) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |