Nebraska Legislature
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
25 of 49 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 16 seats after November (80% range 16–17) and Republicans 31 (30–32). The other 2 seats are expected to go to independents, nonpartisan members or other parties.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 2 | Forecast | Dean Helmick (R), Caitlin Knutson (D) | 7% | official |
| 3 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 4 | Forecast from the all-candidate primary | Cindy Maxwell-Ostdiek (independent, 67%), R. Brad von Gillern (R, 33%) | <1% | official |
| 5 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 6 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Patrick Leahy (D), Nate Ostdiek (D) | official | |
| 7 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 8 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Josh Livingston (D), Erin Feichtinger (D) | official | |
| 9 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 10 | Forecast | Cindy Johnson (D), Rebecca Rens (R) | 95% | official |
| 11 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 12 | Forecast | Merv Riepe (R), Christy Knorr (D) | 7% | official |
| 13 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 14 | Forecast | Bill Bowes (R), SuAnn Witt (D) | 7% | official |
| 15 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 16 | Forecast | Ted Japp (R), Cindy Chatt (D) | 7% | official |
| 17 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 18 | Forecast | Taylor Royal (R), Jess Goldoni (D) | 6% | official |
| 19 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 20 | Forecast | John Fredrickson (D), Chris Anderson (R) | 95% | official |
| 21 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 22 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Dawson Brunswick (R) | official | |
| 23 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 24 | Forecast from the all-candidate primary | Jana Hughes (R, >99%), Dan Winter (nonpartisan, <1%) | <1% | official |
| 25 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 26 | Forecast | George Dungan (D), Tobias Howard (R) | 95% | official |
| 27 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 28 | Forecast from the all-candidate primary | Patty Pansing Brooks (D, >99%), Colby L. Woodson (independent, <1%) | >99% | official |
| 29 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 30 | Forecast | Cally Ideus (R), Janet M. Bock (D) | 7% | official |
| 31 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 32 | Forecast from the all-candidate primary | Mark Schoenrock (R, 91%), Shay Smith (independent, 9%) | <1% | official |
| 33 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 34 | Forecast | Loren Lippincott (R), Ben Blodgett (D) | 7% | official |
| 35 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 36 | Forecast from the all-candidate primary | Darin Tompkins (nonpartisan, 65%), Rick Holdcroft (nonpartisan, 35%) | <1% | official |
| 37 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 38 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Tim Anderson (R), Janell Anderson Ehrke (R) | official | |
| 39 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 40 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Barry DeKay (R) | official | |
| 41 | Forecast | Joe Johnson (R), Jeremy Heneger (D) | 7% | official |
| 42 | Forecast from the all-candidate primary | Mike Jacobson (R, >99%), Shaylee S. Scranton (independent, <1%) | <1% | official |
| 43 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 44 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Teresa Ibach (R) | official | |
| 45 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 46 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Danielle Conrad (D) | official | |
| 47 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 48 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Brian Hardin (R), Jessica M. Landers (R) | official | |
| 49 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) |