MS-1 · House
election-day forecast · ground-up model · as of 2026-10-02
The district, in brief
Mississippi's 1st district takes in the northeastern area of the state, including Columbus, Oxford, Southaven and Tupelo. The lines are the map first used in 2022 and the district is not redrawn for 2026. The facts carry no presidential baseline for this district.
The incumbent is Republican Trent Kelly, re-elected with 69.8% of the vote in 2024 (a two-party margin of -39.62 for the Democrat in the facts). He was unopposed in the Republican primary. The Democratic nominee is Cliff Johnson, director of the MacArthur Justice Center at the University of Mississippi School of Law, who won his primary with 63.4% against Kelvin Buck (36.6%), a former mayor of Holly Springs and former state representative. A Libertarian, Johnny Baucom, a health and safety technician, is listed as declared. As of June 30, 2026 Kelly had raised $1,004,204 with $863,664 on hand; Johnson had raised $551,243 with $149,644 on hand.
Every rater listed calls the seat R: Decision Desk HQ (July 14, 2026), the Cook Political Report (March 13, 2025), Inside Elections (March 7, 2025) and Sabato's Crystal Ball (July 15, 2025). The text records no district polls.
A paragraph quoting a model forecast from the day this brief was written is omitted; the current forecast is at the top of this page.
The facts, each beside its sentence
The incumbent is Republican Trent Kelly, who was re-elected with 69.8% of the vote in 2024.
The incumbent is Republican Trent Kelly
Cliff Johnson, director of the MacArthur Justice Center at the University of Mississippi School of Law
Trent Kelly, incumbent U.S. representative
Cliff Johnson, director of the MacArthur Justice Center at the University of Mississippi School of Law
Trent Kelly, incumbent U.S. representative
who was re-elected with 69.8% of the vote in 2024
candidate: Cliff Johnson party: Democratic Party (United States) votes: 18,051 percentage: 63.4
Decision Desk HQ R July 14, 2026 The Cook Political Report R March 13, 2025
Trent Kelly (R) $1,004,204 $749,398 $863,664
Johnny Baucom, health and safety technician
Not in the source: The text records no district polls, and the model's basis says none exist.; No presidential result is given for the district, in the text or in the facts (presidential_baseline is null).; No rating finer than 'R' is given (no Lean/Likely/Safe).; The endorsements sections in the text are empty.
Read from the district's section of Wikipedia's state page (CC BY-SA), archived as fda0e5bc533a; written by claude-fable-5-1 (batch reader) on 2026-09-30 and checked mechanically: every quote occurs verbatim in the archived text, every number in the brief occurs in the inputs. No probability here is the reader's.
Who holds the seat now
Trent Kelly (Republican), in this chamber since 2015, 6 terms. Committees: House Committee on Agriculture; House Committee on Armed Services; House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence.
From the congress-legislators dataset (CC0), archived as ae8cb9477c48. For a Senate race this lists both of the state's senators; the one whose term ends in the election year holds the seat on the ballot. For a House district redrawn for 2026 it is the member elected under the old lines with this number, who may be running elsewhere; the dossier above names who is running here.
How it has voted for president
| Two-party margin | 2016 | 2020 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| President | R+34.3 | R+32.0 | R+37.3 |
A shift of 3.0 points toward the Republicans from 2016 to 2024. county returns placed on the current lines by 2020 block population; MEDSL county file (2016), an MIT-licensed county file (2020, checked against certified state results) and MEDSL precinct returns (2024). For a district split across counties this is an estimate, and where the state published the exact 2024 figure for these lines, that exact figure is the one the model uses.
Who are the voters?
| Group (adults 25+) | Share of adults | Turnout 2020 / midterm | Share of a midterm electorate | Est. Democratic share, 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| White, no degree | 51% | 63% / 41% | 46% | 8% |
| White, degree | 17% | 86% / 64% | 25% | 26% |
| Black | 26% | 72% / 47% | 27% | 82% |
| Hispanic | 3% | 34% / 3% | 0% | 45% |
| Asian | 1% | 22% / 10% | 0% | 48% |
| Other / multiracial | 2% | 69% / 46% | 2% | 40% |
Of about 491,563 adults 25 and over. In 2020 the district voted 34.0% Democratic (two-party) for president. With the same preferences and a 2022-style midterm turnout, it would vote 33.5% Democratic: the midterm electorate alone moves the margin 0.9 points toward Republicans. Group shares are estimated from how results vary across the state's census tracts (ecological inference, anchored to Pew's 2020 validated-voter figures) and calibrated to this district's actual 2020 vote; turnout is the Census survey's state rate by race and national rate by education, whose state samples carry margins of several points.
Not answered here: how each group will vote in 2026. These are 2020 preferences; this profile is description, not yet an input to the forecast.
The money
| Candidate | Raised | Cash on hand | PAC share | Self-funded | Outside $ for | Outside $ against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly, John Trent (REP) incumbent | $1,004,205 | $863,664 | 50% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Johnson, Cliff (DEM) challenger | $551,243 | $149,645 | 0% | 4% | $0 | $0 |
| Buck, Kelvin Oneal Mr (DEM) challenger · not on our roster | $36,245 | $-1,455 | 0% | 17% | $0 | $0 |
FEC bulk candidate summaries through June 30, 2026; no independent expenditures reported for or against any candidate, which usually means nobody outside the district thinks it is in play.
The district in numbers
| Measure | District | Nation | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bachelor's degree or higher, 25+ | 23.6% | 34.9% | -11.3 pts |
| White, non-Hispanic | 64.2% | 58.2% | +6.0 pts |
| Black, non-Hispanic | 28.0% | 12.0% | +16.0 pts |
| Hispanic or Latino | 3.9% | 19.0% | -15.1 pts |
| Asian, non-Hispanic | 0.9% | 5.8% | -4.9 pts |
| Foreign-born | 2.6% | 13.9% | -11.2 pts |
| Median age | 38.0 | 39.2 | -1.2 |
| Median household income | $60,877 | $84,362 | $-23,485 |
| Median home value | $174,600 | $379,737 | $-205,137 |
| Owner-occupied homes | 73.0% | 65.1% | +7.9 pts |
| Unemployment, July 2026 (BLS county data) | 3.8% | 4.4% | -0.6 pts |
| Change in unemployment, past 12 months | -0.6 pts | — | — |
| Change since the last election (24 months) | +0.1 pts | — | — |
| Unemployment (ACS) | 4.3% | 5.2% | -0.8 pts |
| Federal government workers | 2.4% | 2.6% | -0.2 pts |
| Work from home | 5.2% | 13.5% | -8.3 pts |
| Households on SNAP | 10.3% | 11.8% | -1.4 pts |
| Households with Social Security income | 34.7% | 31.2% | +3.5 pts |
| Households with public assistance income | 1.6% | 2.7% | -1.1 pts |
| Moved in from another state, past year | 2.4% | 2.3% | +0.1 pts |
| Gini index | 0.50 | 0.44 | 0.06 |
| Per-capita personal income (BEA), 2024 | $51,589 | $73,248 | $-21,659 |
| Per-capita income growth since 2019, nominal, 2024 | 29.5% | 32.0% | -2.4 pts |
| Government and other transfers, share of income, 2024 | 25.2% | 19.6% | +5.6 pts |
| Social Security, share of income, 2022 | 8.5% | 5.8% | +2.7 pts |
| Medicare, share of income, 2022 | 6.3% | 4.5% | +1.8 pts |
| Medicaid, share of income, 2022 | 3.2% | 4.0% | -0.8 pts |
| SNAP, share of income, 2022 | 0.4% | 0.6% | -0.2 pts |
| Earned Income Tax Credit, share of income, 2022 | 0.7% | 0.4% | +0.4 pts |
| Veterans' benefits, share of income, 2022 | 1.2% | 0.9% | +0.3 pts |
| Federal civilian jobs, share of all jobs, 2022 | 0.7% | 1.3% | -0.6 pts |
| Military jobs, share of all jobs, 2022 | 1.2% | 0.9% | +0.3 pts |
ACS 5-year 2023, the Census Bureau's own tabulation of this district (118th Congress lines). Unemployment is the BLS county series placed on the district by block population, not seasonally adjusted, so changes are same-month comparisons. Income, transfers and jobs are BEA county accounts placed the same way, compared with the average district. Every other figure is a named column of a named table in the Bureau's summary file, archived before it was read. This is what a reader knows about a district before looking at a poll; the model does not yet use it, and whether it should is a registered question.
Who is favoured, and by how much?
The 90% interval runs from -48.8 to -20.9 points, D-R. It is wide because this district has never been polled.
What is this built on?
A model trained on every contested House race 2012-2024 predicts this district's lean from its own record: presidential and House results on the current lines, incumbency, both candidates' prior offices, outside and party money before 1 October, demographics and public-assistance shares from the Census release before the election, local unemployment and income, and religious tradition. The national margin comes from presidential approval, the economy, the midterm penalty and the generic ballot corrected for its measured lean. Draws share national and state errors, so the seat total and this district come from the same simulation.
Not answered here: district polls, which are not yet folded in.
Why does the model say this?
Each figure is how far this district's predicted lean moves when that one feature is set to the typical value across 2026 districts, everything else held: 2024 presidential lean (R+35.9): 17.1 pts toward the Republican; 2024 House lean (R+36.9): 7.4 pts toward the Republican; 2022 House lean (R+43.5): 1.9 pts toward the Republican; religion: southern baptist (32.4%): 1.7 pts toward the Republican; asian share (0.8%): 1.7 pts toward the Republican.
How sure is it, and of what?
Total sd 8.49 points, made of the seat's own volatility 90%, correlated polling error 10%. The decomposition is stored with the forecast rather than reconstructed, so a probability whose dominant input is a placeholder is visibly that.
Not answered here: a nowcast. 'If ballots were cast today' needs something that observes today, and for a House district nothing does. Publishing the election-day figure under both labels would make one forecast look like two.
How was this number made?
Run 6f211e6f-2bdc-4dda-8f72-81fc628dab0b, house_district_prior/0.2.0, as of 2026-10-02. Promoted by a pre-registered gate: on 2016-2022 its Brier score was 0.036 against 0.049 for the previous method, and on a single 2024 run 0.023 against 0.032 (experiments/district_gate_result.md, with an independent review).