Iowa House
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
1%chance of a Democratic majority
99%chance of a Republican majority
51seats for a majority, of 100
100 of 100 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 35 seats after November (80% range 30–42) and Republicans 65 (58–70). In 3 seats a Democrat or Republican faces only independents or minor-party candidates and is counted as winning; in 2018 to 2024 such candidates lost about 3% of the time, mostly to sitting independents.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Forecast | Josh Steinhoff (R), Shawn Olorundami (D) | 86% | official |
| 2 | Forecast | Robert Henderson (R), Jessica Lopez-Walker (D) | 2% | official |
| 3 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Robert Driesen (R) | official | |
| 4 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Skyler Wheeler (R), Garth Van Donselaar (independent) | official | |
| 5 | Forecast | Keith Glienke (R), Stephanie Steiner (D) | 2% | official |
| 6 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Megan Jones (R) | official | |
| 7 | Forecast | Wendy Larson (R), Rachel Burns (D) | 2% | official |
| 8 | Forecast | Ann Meyer (R), Kristofer Williams (D) | 4% | official |
| 9 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Henry Stone (R) | official | |
| 10 | Decided: only a Republican is running | John H Wills (R) | official | |
| 11 | Forecast | Craig Williams (R), Bill Owen (D) | <1% | official |
| 12 | Forecast | Steven Holt (R), Dustin Durbin (D) | <1% | official |
| 13 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Travis M. Sitzmann (R) | official | |
| 14 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Jacob Bossman (R) | official | |
| 15 | Forecast | Jason Sherer (R), Benjamin Schauer (D), Blake Johnson (independent), Marilyn J Mentzer (independent) | <1% | official |
| 16 | Forecast | David A. Sieck (R), Jack Goodman (D) | <1% | official |
| 17 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Devon Wood (R) | official | |
| 18 | Forecast | Thomas Jay Moore (R), Tripp Narup (D) | <1% | official |
| 19 | Forecast | Brent Siegrist (R), Benjamin Thomas Larson (D) | 3% | official |
| 20 | Forecast | Keith Jones (R), Eric Armstrong (D) | 81% | official |
| 21 | Forecast | Brooke Boden (R), Spencer A Waugh (D) | 3% | official |
| 22 | Forecast | Samantha Fett (R), Rory Taylor (D) | 3% | official |
| 23 | Forecast | Ray Bubba Sorensen (R), Karen Varley (D) | <1% | official |
| 24 | Forecast | Sam Wengryn (R), Sonya Hicks (D) | <1% | official |
| 25 | Forecast | Hans C. Wilz (R), Kolton Jones (D) | <1% | official |
| 26 | Forecast | Austin Harris (R), Brett Mohler (D) | <1% | official |
| 27 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Kenan Judge (D) | official | |
| 28 | Forecast | David Young (R), Tom Walton (D) | 21% | official |
| 29 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Brian Meyer (D) | official | |
| 30 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Megan L. Srinivas (D) | official | |
| 31 | Forecast | Kevin W. DuBay (R), Mary Madison (D) | 98% | official |
| 32 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Mike Jones (D) | official | |
| 33 | Forecast | Lynn Hammel (R), Ivette Muhammad (D) | 98% | official |
| 34 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Rob Johnson (D) | official | |
| 35 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Sean Bagniewski (D) | official | |
| 36 | Forecast | Bruce A Michalowski (R), Austin Baeth (D) | 99% | official |
| 37 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Jason Sandholdt (R) | official | |
| 38 | Forecast | Matthew Oleson (R), Brad Magg (D) | 19% | official |
| 39 | Forecast | Troy Clark (R), Nate Boulton (D) | 90% | official |
| 40 | Forecast | Bill Gustoff (R), Heather Sievers (D) | 37% | official |
| 41 | Forecast | Ryan Weldon (R), Molly Buck (D) | 42% | official |
| 42 | Forecast | Heather Stephenson (R), Amy Tagliareni (D) | 66% | official |
| 43 | Forecast | Nicole Hasso (R), Jill Alesch (D) | 49% | official |
| 44 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Larry McBurney (D) | official | |
| 45 | Forecast | Austin Stubbs (R), Kendra Haug (D) | 1% | official |
| 46 | Forecast | Dan Gehlbach (R), Mandy Newton Rosenow (D) | 12% | official |
| 47 | Forecast | Carter F. Nordman (R), Chris New (D) | 1% | official |
| 48 | Forecast | Chad Behn (R), Benjamin Olsen (D) | 2% | official |
| 49 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Beth Wessel-Kroeschell (D) | official | |
| 50 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Ross Wilburn (D) | official | |
| 51 | Forecast | Brett Barker (R), Teresa Perin (D) | 1% | official |
| 52 | Forecast | David Blom (R), Mike Tupper (D) | 27% | official |
| 53 | Forecast | Dean Fisher (R), Berleen Wobeter (D) | 6% | official |
| 54 | Forecast | Joshua Meggers (R), Leila Ann Staton (D) | 3% | official |
| 55 | Forecast | Beau Klaver (R), Cynthia Oppedal Paschen (D) | 5% | official |
| 56 | Forecast | Mark I. Thompson (R), Kyle Kruse (D) | <1% | official |
| 57 | Forecast | Pat Grassley (R), Shawn Ellerbroek (D) | 2% | official |
| 58 | Forecast | Charley Thomson (R), India May (D) | 1% | official |
| 59 | Forecast | Christian Hermanson (R), Jacob Welper (D) | 35% | official |
| 60 | Forecast | Dani Ollenburg (R), Alexander Schmidt (D) | 5% | official |
| 61 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Vincent Collis (D), Lucas Hewitt (independent) | official | |
| 62 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jerome Amos Jr. (D) | official | |
| 63 | Forecast | Michael R. Bergan (R), Jeff Thurlow (D) | 5% | official |
| 64 | Forecast | Jason Gearhart (R), Brian Bruening (D) | 3% | official |
| 65 | Forecast | Shannon Lundgren (R), Carolyn Wiezorek (D) | <1% | official |
| 66 | Forecast | Steven Bradley (R), Matt English (D) | 11% | official |
| 67 | Forecast | Craig Johnson (R), Michael Coonrad (D) | 3% | official |
| 68 | Forecast | Chad Ingels (R), Scott Bodley (D) | <1% | official |
| 69 | Forecast | Tom Determann (R), Randy Meier (D) | 6% | official |
| 70 | Forecast | Norlin Mommsen (R), George Pickup (D) | 1% | official |
| 71 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Sam Wooden (D) | official | |
| 72 | Forecast | Jennifer Smith (R), Matt Robinson (D) | 21% | official |
| 73 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Elizabeth Wilson (D) | official | |
| 74 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Eric Gjerde (D) | official | |
| 75 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Drew Stensland (D) | official | |
| 76 | Forecast | Matt Reisetter (R), Calvin Horn (D) | 4% | official |
| 77 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jeff Cooling (D) | official | |
| 78 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Angel Ramirez (D) | official | |
| 79 | Forecast | Barclay Woerner (R), Tracy Ehlert (D) | >99% | official |
| 80 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Aime J Wichtendahl (D) | official | |
| 81 | Forecast | Dillon Fillion (R), Daniel Gosa (D) | 98% | official |
| 82 | Forecast | Bobby Kaufmann (R), James Behrmann (D) | 2% | official |
| 83 | Forecast | Cindy Golding (R), Mike Bergman (D) | 3% | official |
| 84 | Forecast | Thomas Gerhold (R), Polly Denison (D) | 4% | official |
| 85 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Amy Nielsen (D) | official | |
| 86 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Dave Jacoby (D) | official | |
| 87 | Forecast | Jeff Shipley (R), Thomas R. O'Donnell (D) | 3% | official |
| 88 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Helena Hayes (R) | official | |
| 89 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Elinor A. Levin (D), Daniel Arch (independent) | official | |
| 90 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Adam Zabner (D) | official | |
| 91 | Forecast | Judd Lawler (R), Mark Divitt (D) | 13% | official |
| 92 | Forecast | Heather Hora (R), Brittany Erickson (D) | 2% | official |
| 93 | Forecast | Gary M. Mohr (R), Keith Soko (D) | 2% | official |
| 94 | Forecast | Mike Vondran (R), Karen Roebuck (D) | 5% | official |
| 95 | Forecast | Taylor Collins (R), Carrie Trevino (D) | <1% | official |
| 96 | Forecast | Mark Cisneros (R), Nick Salazar (D) | 3% | official |
| 97 | Forecast | Charlie Helmick (R), Adam Peters (D) | 98% | official |
| 98 | Forecast | Nathan Ramker (R), Andrew Fitzgerald (D) | 65% | official |
| 99 | Forecast | Matthew Rinker (R), Jennifer Kirkman (D) | 10% | official |
| 100 | Forecast | Blaine Watkins (R), Matthew Mohrfeld (D) | 3% | official |