Tennessee Senate
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
17 of 33 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 6 seats after November (80% range 6–7) and Republicans 27 (26–27).
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Decided: only a Republican is running | J. Adam Lowe (R) | wikipedia | |
| 2 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 3 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Rusty Crowe (R) | wikipedia | |
| 4 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 5 | Forecast | David Miller (D), Jimmy Matlock (R) | 6% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 6 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 7 | Forecast | Bryan Langan (D), Richard M. Briggs (R) | 1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 8 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 9 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Steve Southerland (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 10 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 11 | Forecast | Tim Roberts (D), Bo Watson (R) | 4% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 12 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 13 | Forecast | Angela Evans Wynn (D), Dawn White (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 14 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 15 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Paul Bailey (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 16 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 17 | Forecast | Lindsey Patrick-Wright (D), Mark Pody (R) | 4% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 18 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 19 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Charlane Oliver (D) | checked by hand | |
| 20 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 21 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jeff Yarbro (D) | checked by hand | |
| 22 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 23 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Kerry Roberts (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 24 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 25 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Ed Jackson (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 26 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 27 | Forecast | David A Hardy (D), Jack Johnson (R) | 4% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 28 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 29 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Raumesh Akbari (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 30 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 31 | Forecast | David Weatherspoon (D), Brent Taylor (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 32 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 33 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | London Lamar (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |