NY-10 · House

The district, in brief

New York's 10th district is based in Lower Manhattan and Brooklyn, including Park Slope, Brooklyn Heights, Red Hook, Sunset Park, the East Village, the Lower East Side, Greenwich Village and the Financial District, on the map first used in 2024. The text gives no presidential results; the facts record a 2024 presidential baseline on these lines of 61.9 points (two-party margin for the Democrat) and a two-party House margin of 69.19 points for the Democrat in 2024.

The incumbent, Democrat Dan Goldman, first elected in 2022 and re-elected with 82.3% in 2024, lost the June 24, 2026 Democratic primary to former New York City Comptroller Brad Lander, 66.0% (58,047 votes) to 33.8% (29,781), so the general election has no incumbent. The text says Goldman was seen as vulnerable after winning the 2022 primary with 26% and only 66% of the 2024 primary vote, attributes his troubles in part to his support for Israel, and notes he refused to endorse Zohran Mamdani, who carried the district by 23 points in the 2025 mayoral primary and 25 in the general. Lander entered on December 10, 2025 with Mamdani's backing; Alexa Avilés withdrew the next day. Primary polls had Lander ahead: Emerson College (May 16–17, 2026) 57% to 23%, Schoen Cooperman Research (D) (May 1–4, 2026) 47% to 42%, Data For Progress (D) (September 2–8, 2025) 52% to 33%. The Republican nominee is Jennifer Moore, an activist, with $0 raised; as of June 30, 2026 Lander had raised $2,455,130 with $55,336 on hand.

Decision Desk HQ (July 14, 2026), the Cook Political Report (February 6, 2025), Inside Elections (March 7, 2025) and Sabato's Crystal Ball (September 18, 2025) each list the seat as D. The text records no general-election polls.

A paragraph quoting a model forecast from the day this brief was written is omitted; the current forecast is at the top of this page.

The facts, each beside its sentence

Not in the source: The text gives no presidential results for the district; only the facts' presidential baseline is available.; No general-election polls are in the text; the polls recorded are Democratic primary polls, and the model's basis says no district polls.; The three endorsement blocks under the Democratic primary are not labelled by candidate in the text, so endorsements (Jeffries, Pelosi, Hochul, AIPAC; Sanders, Warren, Working Families Party; NYC DSA) are not attributed here.; No Republican primary result is given; the text lists only Moore, with no background beyond 'activist'.; No ratings finer than 'D' are given (no Lean/Likely/Safe); Silver Bulletin is not listed.; The 'Dan Goldman vs. another Democratic candidate' poll table is garbled and gives no numbers.

Read from the district's section of Wikipedia's state page (CC BY-SA), archived as cfb3d3b04173; written by claude-fable-5-1 (batch reader) on 2026-09-30 and checked mechanically: every quote occurs verbatim in the archived text, every number in the brief occurs in the inputs. No probability here is the reader's.

Who holds the seat now

Daniel S. Goldman (Democrat), in this chamber since 2023, 2 terms. Committees: House Committee on the Judiciary; House Committee on Homeland Security.

From the congress-legislators dataset (CC0), archived as ae8cb9477c48. For a Senate race this lists both of the state's senators; the one whose term ends in the election year holds the seat on the ballot. For a House district redrawn for 2026 it is the member elected under the old lines with this number, who may be running elsewhere; the dossier above names who is running here.

How it has voted for president

A shift of 18.1 points toward the Republicans from 2016 to 2024. county returns placed on the current lines by 2020 block population; MEDSL county file (2016), an MIT-licensed county file (2020, checked against certified state results) and MEDSL precinct returns (2024). For a district split across counties this is an estimate, and where the state published the exact 2024 figure for these lines, that exact figure is the one the model uses.

Who are the voters?

Of about 533,452 adults 25 and over. In 2020 the district voted 85.6% Democratic (two-party) for president. With the same preferences and a 2022-style midterm turnout, it would vote 85.9% Democratic: the midterm electorate alone moves the margin 0.6 points toward Democrats. Group shares are estimated from how results vary across the state's census tracts (ecological inference, anchored to Pew's 2020 validated-voter figures) and calibrated to this district's actual 2020 vote; turnout is the Census survey's state rate by race and national rate by education, whose state samples carry margins of several points.

Not answered here: how each group will vote in 2026. These are 2020 preferences; this profile is description, not yet an input to the forecast.

The money

FEC bulk candidate summaries through June 30, 2026; $608,209 of independent expenditures for or against these candidates this cycle (FEC Schedule E, types 24E and 24A), which is the parties' and outside groups' own revealed view of whether this seat is in play.

The district in numbers

ACS 5-year 2023, the Census Bureau's own tabulation of this district (118th Congress lines). Unemployment is the BLS county series placed on the district by block population, not seasonally adjusted, so changes are same-month comparisons. Income, transfers and jobs are BEA county accounts placed the same way, compared with the average district. Every other figure is a named column of a named table in the Bureau's summary file, archived before it was read. This is what a reader knows about a district before looking at a poll; the model does not yet use it, and whether it should is a registered question.

Who is favoured, and by how much?

The 90% interval runs from +61.3 to +90.8 points, D-R. It is wide because this district has never been polled.

What is this built on?

A model trained on every contested House race 2012-2024 predicts this district's lean from its own record: presidential and House results on the current lines, incumbency, both candidates' prior offices, outside and party money before 1 October, demographics and public-assistance shares from the Census release before the election, local unemployment and income, and religious tradition. The national margin comes from presidential approval, the economy, the midterm penalty and the generic ballot corrected for its measured lean. Draws share national and state errors, so the seat total and this district come from the same simulation.

Not answered here: district polls, which are not yet folded in.

Why does the model say this?

Each figure is how far this district's predicted lean moves when that one feature is set to the typical value across 2026 districts, everything else held: 2024 presidential lean (D+63.4): 61.1 pts toward the Democrat; 2024 House lean (D+71.9): 14.5 pts toward the Democrat; experience gap (+1 levels, D minus R): 12.1 pts toward the Democrat; PAC money balance: 8.8 pts toward the Democrat; 2020 presidential lean (D+66.9): 3.9 pts toward the Democrat.

How sure is it, and of what?

Total sd 9.06 points, made of the seat's own volatility 92%, correlated polling error 8%. The decomposition is stored with the forecast rather than reconstructed, so a probability whose dominant input is a placeholder is visibly that.

Not answered here: a nowcast. 'If ballots were cast today' needs something that observes today, and for a House district nothing does. Publishing the election-day figure under both labels would make one forecast look like two.

How was this number made?

Run 00a09d4b-7980-4ec5-ada0-077968a87242, house_district_prior/0.2.0, as of 2026-10-02. Promoted by a pre-registered gate: on 2016-2022 its Brier score was 0.036 against 0.049 for the previous method, and on a single 2024 run 0.023 against 0.032 (experiments/district_gate_result.md, with an independent review).