Montana · Senate
election 2026-11-03 · forecast as of 2026-10-01 · margins and probabilities are for Seth Bodnar
Who is running?
Alani Bankhead (Democratic), Kurt Alme (Republican), Kyle Austin (Libertarian), Seth Bodnar (Independent). The margin below is Seth Bodnar minus the other candidate in the main contest; the rest are on the ballot and not in it.
The race, in brief
This is the 2026 Senate election in Montana, held on November 3. Republican incumbent Steve Daines is not seeking a third term, and the text calls it the first open Senate election in Montana since 1976. It describes Montana as a red state at the federal level that has not voted for a Democratic president since 1992. The state profile on file records a white non-Hispanic share of 0.8, a college share of 0.3 and a median household income of 69922.0.
Daines withdrew minutes before the March 5, 2026 filing deadline and endorsed Kurt Alme, former U.S. Attorney for Montana, who won the June 2 primary with 76.1% in the results table. Alani Bankhead, an Air Force lieutenant colonel from Helena, won the Democratic primary with 43.6% over Reilly Neill (33.0%). Seth Bodnar, former University of Montana president, is running as an independent with Jon Tester's backing; Democratic leaders urged Bankhead to withdraw, but on the August 10 deadline she stayed in. Libertarian Kyle Austin is also on the ballot, disavowed by his state party. As of June 30, 2026 Alme had raised $1,984,860, Bodnar $3,238,150 and Bankhead $58,829.
Every rater listed calls the race R, among them the Cook Political Report (September 23, 2026) and Sabato's Crystal Ball (September 22, 2026). The text's poll average has Alme 42.7%, Bodnar 27.0% and Bankhead 20.0%, Alme +15.7%. The latest poll listed, Quantus Insights (R) on September 14–15, 2026, has Alme 44%, Bodnar 24%, Bankhead 23%.
A paragraph quoting a model forecast from the day this brief was written is omitted; the current forecast is at the top of this page.
The facts, each beside its sentence
Steve Daines, incumbent U.S. senator (2015–present) (endorsed Alme)
Republican incumbent Steve Daines is not seeking a third term.
Bankhead won the Democratic nomination with 43.7% of the vote over former state representative Reilly Neill and tribal historic preservation officer Michael Black Wolf.
As the only major Republican candidate, Alme was nominated with 76.2% of the vote.
Alani Bankhead, Air Force lieutenant colonel and leadership coach
Kurt Alme, former U.S. Attorney for the District of Montana (2017–2020, 2025–2026)
Montana is considered to be a red state at the federal level, having not voted for a Democratic president since Bill Clinton's plurality victory in 1992.
The filing deadline for participation in primaries was March 5, 2026, at 5:00 p.m. At 4:52 p.m. Kurt Alme filed to run, and 3 minutes later Steve Daines withdrew.
The Cook Political Report R September 23, 2026 Decision Desk HQ R September 25, 2026
|Kurt Alme (R) $1,984,860 $534,142 $1,450,718
Bodnar, supported by former Democratic senator Jon Tester, launched an independent campaign shortly after resigning from the University of Montana.
Daines's maneuver has been criticized by members of both parties.
On the deadline for candidate withdrawal, August 10, HuffPost reported that Bankhead was choosing to stay in the race, keeping it a three-way contest.
Paid signature gatherers who worked on behalf of the Bodnar campaign are under investigation by the Cascade County Sheriff's Office.
Austin won the primary, but was disavowed by the Montana Libertarian Party.
Average |42.7% 20.0% 27.0% 10.3% |Alme +15.7%
Quantus Insights (R) September 14–15, 2026 625 (LV)
Hart Research (D) June 18–24, 2026 800 (LV) |47% 45% 8%
Not in the source: The forecast names only the Democrat, Bankhead, as its subject; the input gives no model output for independent Seth Bodnar, who polls second in the text's aggregate average (27.0%).; The forecast rows carry no `basis` field, so the input does not say whether the model used the statewide polls in the text.; No previous Senate result or presidential margins for Montana are given in the text.; Ratings are given only as 'R', with no Lean/Likely/Safe detail.; facts.candidates omits Libertarian Kyle Austin, who is on the ballot.; The lead and the results table disagree slightly on primary percentages (76.2% vs 76.1%; 43.7% vs 43.6%).
Read from the district's section of Wikipedia's state page (CC BY-SA), archived as 8a70b64b1cbf; written by claude-opus-5-5 (batch reader) on 2026-09-30 and checked mechanically: every quote occurs verbatim in the archived text, every number in the brief occurs in the inputs. No probability here is the reader's.
Who holds the seat now
Steve Daines (Republican), in this chamber since 2015, 2 terms, class 2 (term ends 2027). Committees: Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources; Senate Committee on Finance; Senate Committee on Foreign Relations; Senate Committee on Indian Affairs.
Tim Sheehy (Republican), in this chamber since 2025, 1 term, class 1 (term ends 2031). Committees: Senate Committee on Armed Services; Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation; Senate Committee on Veterans' Affairs.
From the congress-legislators dataset (CC0), archived as ae8cb9477c48. For a Senate race this lists both of the state's senators; the one whose term ends in the election year holds the seat on the ballot. For a House district redrawn for 2026 it is the member elected under the old lines with this number, who may be running elsewhere; the dossier above names who is running here.
The money
| Candidate | Raised | Cash on hand | PAC share | Self-funded | Outside $ for | Outside $ against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daines, Steve (REP) incumbent · not on our roster | $4,728,811 | $2,614,137 | 29% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Bodnar, Seth (IND) open seat | $3,238,151 | $977,779 | 3% | 0% | $145,225 | $972,124 |
| Alme, Kurt (REP) open seat | $1,984,861 | $1,450,719 | 29% | 0% | $2,413,253 | $232,789 |
| Neill, Reilly (DEM) open seat · not on our roster | $294,625 | $24,308 | 0% | 44% | $2,528 | $1,210,958 |
| Austin, Kyle (LIB) open seat · not on our roster | $250,626 | $8,751 | 0% | 100% | $0 | $0 |
| Bankhead, Alani Ines (DEM) open seat | $58,829 | $21,485 | 11% | 11% | $3,229,335 | $0 |
| Blackwolf, Michael James Mr. (DEM) open seat · not on our roster | $26,144 | $528 | 0% | 2% | $0 | $0 |
| Hummert, Michael (DEM) open seat · not on our roster | $12,330 | $8,628 | 0% | 87% | $0 | $0 |
| Calhoun, Lee (REP) · not on our roster | $8,325 | $0 | 0% | 100% | $0 | $0 |
| Kehoe, Christopher (DEM) open seat · not on our roster | $1,000 | $920 | 0% | 100% | $0 | $0 |
FEC bulk candidate summaries through June 30, 2026; $8,206,212 of independent expenditures for or against these candidates this cycle (FEC Schedule E, types 24E and 24A), which is the parties' and outside groups' own revealed view of whether this seat is in play.
How it has voted for president
| Two-party margin | 2016 | 2020 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| President | R+22.2 | R+16.8 | R+20.6 |
A shift of 1.6 points toward the Democrats from 2016 to 2024. county returns summed; MEDSL county file (2016), an MIT-licensed county file (2020, checked against certified state results) and MEDSL precinct returns (2024). For a district split across counties this is an estimate, and where the state published the exact 2024 figure for these lines, that exact figure is the one the model uses.
The state in numbers
| Measure | State | Average state | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bachelor's degree or higher, 25+, 2023 | 34.5% | 34.0% | +0.5 pts |
| White, non-Hispanic, 2023 | 84.1% | 66.3% | +17.8 pts |
| Black, non-Hispanic, 2023 | 0.5% | 10.1% | -9.6 pts |
| Hispanic or Latino, 2023 | 4.4% | 12.9% | -8.5 pts |
| Asian, non-Hispanic, 2023 | 0.8% | 4.4% | -3.5 pts |
| Foreign-born, 2023 | 2.3% | 9.6% | -7.3 pts |
| Median age, 2023 | 40.2 | 39.1 | +1.12 |
| Median household income, 2023 | $69,922 | $77,633 | $-7,711 |
| Median home value, 2023 | $338,100 | $314,132 | $+23,968 |
| Owner-occupied homes, 2023 | 69.4% | 67.4% | +2.1 pts |
| Unemployment (ACS), 2023 | 3.8% | 4.8% | -1.0 pts |
| Federal government workers, 2023 | 3.6% | 3.0% | +0.6 pts |
| Work from home, 2023 | 11.6% | 12.3% | -0.7 pts |
| Households on SNAP, 2023 | 8.3% | 11.1% | -2.8 pts |
| Households with Social Security income, 2023 | 34.6% | 32.1% | +2.5 pts |
| Households with public assistance income, 2023 | 2.4% | 2.6% | -0.2 pts |
| Moved in from another state, past year, 2023 | 3.9% | 2.9% | +1.0 pts |
| Gini index, 2023 | 0.46 | 0.47 | -0.00 |
| Unemployment, latest month (BLS), 2026-07 | 2.8% | 4.0% | -1.2 pts |
| Change in unemployment, past 12 months, 2026-07 | -0.3 pts | -0.1 pts | -0.1 pts |
| Change since the last election (24 months), 2026-07 | -0.1 pts | -0.1 pts | -0.0 pts |
| Per-capita personal income (BEA), 2024 | $69,240 | $70,662 | $-1,422 |
| Per-capita income growth since 2019, nominal, 2024 | 39.4% | 32.4% | +7.1 pts |
| Government and other transfers, share of income, 2024 | 18.8% | 19.4% | -0.6 pts |
| Social Security, share of income, 2022 | 6.5% | 6.1% | +0.4 pts |
| Medicare, share of income, 2022 | 4.1% | 4.4% | -0.3 pts |
| Medicaid, share of income, 2022 | 3.5% | 3.8% | -0.3 pts |
| SNAP, share of income, 2022 | 0.3% | 0.6% | -0.3 pts |
| Earned Income Tax Credit, share of income, 2022 | 0.3% | 0.3% | -0.1 pts |
| Veterans' benefits, share of income, 2022 | 1.3% | 0.9% | +0.4 pts |
| Federal civilian jobs, share of all jobs, 2022 | 1.8% | 1.5% | +0.3 pts |
| Military jobs, share of all jobs, 2022 | 1.0% | 1.2% | -0.1 pts |
ACS 5-year state tables; BLS county unemployment and BEA county income, transfers and jobs summed to the state. Every figure is a named column of a named public-domain table, archived before it was read.
Who is ahead, and by how much?
Two numbers because they answer two questions. The nowcast is where opinion stands; the election-day forecast is where it is likely to end up.
How likely is each to win?
Monte Carlo error is ±0.0 points. A change smaller than that is simulation noise rather than news, and this page will not describe it as movement.
How wide is the range?
Nowcast: 90% of simulations fall between -28.4 and -8.7 points. Election day: -30.4 to -6.7. The election-day interval is 3.9 points wider, which is the 33 days of movement still to come.
What is the uncertainty made of?
Total sd 7.45 points, made of race-specific polling error 45%, drift to election day 29%, latent opinion 16%, correlated polling error 11%. The decomposition is stored with the forecast rather than reconstructed, so a probability whose dominant input is a placeholder is visibly that.
What evidence is this built on?
14 polls, most recent 2026-09-15. 36% verified against a primary source.
What changed since the last run?
Shaded band is the 90% interval, line is the central estimate, positive is Seth Bodnar ahead of Alani Bankhead. Over 18 stored forecasts the central estimate moved +4.3 points. There were 7 specification changes (marked on the axis) and 2 new polls arrived over this window — so the movement mixes new evidence with changes to the model.
Since 2026-10-01: margin +0.00 points, win probability +0.0 points, on +0 polls. Of that, +0.00 points came from +0 poll(s), +0.00 from the shorter horizon, and -0.00 from the model specification.
How has this model done before?
Measured on 230 forecasts across 230 races in cycles 2016,2018,2020,2022,2024: mean absolute error 4.56 points, Brier score 0.0543. The nominal 90% interval contained the result 94% of the time, the 80% interval 84%, and the 50% interval 47%. Read that with care: a national polling miss moves every race in a cycle at once, so the sample size for a question about the intervals is 5 cycle(s), not 230 forecasts. Per cycle -- bias +1.644 pts; 2016: n=43 bias=+4.68 cov90=0.860; 2018: n=63 bias=-0.52 cov90=1.000; 2020: n=35 bias=+5.44 cov90=0.886; 2022: n=54 bias=-0.60 cov90=0.944; 2024: n=35 bias=+1.48 cov90=1.000.
Where did every number come from?
Nowcast run 3ceabb52-d115-4e76-a0e9-571cfe782c26 and election-day run 02d947cd-b2dc-4386-8148-30959f62ff39, model single_race_latent/0.8.1 at commit bdf7e83107c17a2399efe61a44ef1bbee48f9284, seeds 20260924 and 20260924.