2026 Senate forecast

Republicans are favoured to keep the Senate (Democrats 39–47%, depending on independents).

Senate

Toss-up

39–47% chance of Democratic control

A range, not a point: 4 seats could go to independents whose caucus is not recorded, and a midpoint would be a guess about a person. Why a range?

50 Democratic seats expected · 80% range 46–53 · 51 for a majority

Each bar is one seat. The line is 51 seats and the shading either side of it is what the control probability is the area of: 39% of simulated elections land at or above 51. Out of 50,000 simulated elections.

If the election were today: Withheld · nowcast run b9e2b1d1

Election day · run 40658230 · senate_chamber/0.4.0 · as of 2026-10-02

Not on the ballot this year: 34 senators who sit with the Democrats (including independents Angus King and Bernie Sanders) and 31 Republicans. Democrats need 51 seats for control; at 50-50 the Vice President, a Republican, breaks ties.

Independents and which party they would join

Seth Bodnar: no public commitment found (searched 2026-10-02). Supported by former Democratic senator Jon Tester; a Democratic nominee is also on the ballot.
Todd Achilles: no public commitment found (searched 2026-10-02). Former Democratic state legislator; the Democratic nominee withdrew for him.
Dan Osborn: no commitment. Says he will 'caucus with everybody' (Roll Call, 2026-09-24: rollcall.com/2026/09/24/who-would-this-independent-caucus-with-everybody/); has previously vowed not to caucus with Democrats. Endorsed by the Nebraska Democratic Party.
Brian Bengs: no public commitment found (searched 2026-10-02). 2022 Democratic nominee, now independent; the 2026 Democratic nominee withdrew on 4 August.

Senate · election day

NM92 KS24 AR3 TN1 NC90 SC25

OK1 LA6 MS11 AL2 GA85

TX44

FL15

Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe RRace, no polled forecastNo race this year What the ratings mean

Schematic, not a projection: every state is one tile, because on a geographic map area reads as importance and it is not. Shading is the probability of a Democratic win (the number on each tile). Hatched: a race with no polled forecast yet (0); faded: no senate race this year (16). Where an independent, not a Democrat, is the Republican's opponent (ID, MT, NE, SD), the shading and number are the independent's chance.

Every race

Sorted from most to least Democratic. The chance and rating are the election-day forecast; the margin is the favourite's expected lead in points. Each state links to its full race page.

State	Candidates	Rating	Chance of beating the Republican Democrat, or independent where noted	Expected margin	Polls
Massachusetts	Markey (D) vs Deaton (R)	Safe D	100%	Markey +23	10
Rhode Island	Reed (D) vs McKay (R)	Safe D	100%	Reed +21	4
Delaware	Coons (D) vs Katz (R)	Safe D	99%	Coons +30	none: fundamentals only
Oregon	Merkley (D) vs Smith (R)	Safe D	98%	Merkley +29	none: fundamentals only
Colorado	Hickenlooper (D) vs Baisley (R)	Safe D	98%	Hickenlooper +27	none: fundamentals only
Virginia	Warner (D) vs Mizusawa (R)	Safe D	97%	Warner +21	2
New Jersey	Booker (D) vs Murphy (R)	Safe D	96%	Booker +23	none: fundamentals only
Illinois	Stratton (D) vs Tracy (R)	Safe D	95%	Stratton +23	none: fundamentals only
New Mexico	Luján (D) vs Marker (R)	Likely D	92%	Luján +16	1
North Carolina	Cooper (D) vs Whatley (R)	Likely D	90%	Cooper +9	36
Georgia	Ossoff (D) vs Collins (R)	Likely D	85%	Ossoff +7	15
New Hampshire	Pappas (D) vs Sununu (R)	Lean D	78%	Pappas +5	25
Minnesota	Flanagan (D) vs Tafoya (R)	Lean D	77%	Flanagan +5	10
Ohio	Brown (D) vs Husted (R)	Toss-up	58%	Brown +1	25
Michigan	El-Sayed (D) vs Rogers (R)	Toss-up	55%	El-Sayed +1	37
Texas	Paxton (R) vs Talarico (D)	Toss-up	44%	Paxton +1	41
Nebraska	Ricketts (R) vs Osborn (I)	Toss-up	42% (independent)	Ricketts +1	8
Iowa	Hinson (R) vs Turek (D)	Lean R	39%	Hinson +2	24
Alaska	Sullivan (R) vs Peltola (D)	Lean R	37%	Sullivan +2	21
Maine	Collins (R) vs Jackson (D)	Lean R	31%	Collins +3	16
South Carolina	Graham (R) vs Andrews (D)	Lean R	25%	Graham +5	6
Kansas	Marshall (R) vs Hamilton (D)	Lean R	24%	Marshall +5	7
Florida	Moody (R) vs Nixon (D)	Likely R	15%	Moody +7	10
Mississippi	Hyde-Smith (R) vs Colom (D)	Likely R	11%	Hyde-Smith +13	3
Kentucky	Barr (R) vs Booker (D)	Likely R	10%	Barr +14	2
South Dakota	Rounds (R) vs Bengs (I)	Likely R	8% (independent)	Rounds +10	8
Louisiana	Letlow (R) vs Davis (D)	Likely R	6%	Letlow +17	2
Idaho	Risch (R) vs Achilles (I)	Likely R	5% (independent)	Risch +17	7
Arkansas	Cotton (R) vs Shoffner (D)	Safe R	3%	Cotton +16	4
Alabama	Moore (R) vs Wess (D)	Safe R	2%	Moore +23	2
Tennessee	Hagerty (R) vs Bradshaw (D)	Safe R	1%	Hagerty +24	1
Montana	Alme (R) vs Bodnar (I)	Safe R	1% (independent)	Alme +19	14
Oklahoma	Hern (R) vs Thomas (D)	Safe R	1%	Hern +26	1
West Virginia	Capito (R) vs Anderson (D)	Safe R	0%	Capito +35	none: fundamentals only
Wyoming	Hageman (R) vs Byrd (D)	Safe R	0%	Hageman +38	none: fundamentals only