Minnesota House
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
69%chance of a Democratic majority
25%chance of a Republican majority
6%chance neither party has a majority
68seats for a majority, of 134
134 of 134 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 70 seats after November (80% range 63–78) and Republicans 64 (56–71). Neither party wins a majority in 6% of the simulations: the parties can tie at 67 seats each. Who then runs the chamber depends on the state: a coalition, a power-sharing agreement, or, in some Senates, the lieutenant governor's tie-breaking vote. In 2 seats a Democrat or Republican faces only independents or minor-party candidates and is counted as winning; in 2018 to 2024 such candidates lost about 3% of the time, mostly to sitting independents.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
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Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | Forecast | John Burkel (R), Leanna Sandahl (D) | <1% | official |
| 1B | Forecast | Steve Gander (R), Jennifer Compeau (D) | <1% | official |
| 2A | Forecast | Reed J. Olson (D), Bidal Duran Jr. (R) | 34% | official |
| 2B | Forecast | Emily Thabes (D), Matt Bliss (R) | 1% | official |
| 3A | Forecast | Roger J. Skraba (R), Aaron Kania (D) | 7% | official |
| 3B | Forecast | Natalie Zeleznikar (R), Aaron Schweiger (D) | 48% | official |
| 4A | Forecast | Andrew Rockhold (R), Erika Yoney (D) | 98% | official |
| 4B | Forecast | Thaddeus Laugisch (D), Jim Joy (R) | <1% | official |
| 5A | Forecast | Dan S. Mitchell (D), Krista Knudsen (R) | <1% | official |
| 5B | Forecast | Maggie Evers (D), Jonathan Claussen (R) | <1% | official |
| 6A | Forecast | Ben Davis (R), Samuel Grigsby (D) | <1% | official |
| 6B | Forecast | Nicky Hardy (D), Josh Heintzeman (R) | <1% | official |
| 7A | Forecast | Spencer Igo (R), Erin McCabe Ningen (D) | 2% | official |
| 7B | Forecast | Cal Warwas (R), Dan Horoshak (D) | 9% | official |
| 8A | Forecast | Peter Johnson (D), Allan Kehr II (R) | >99% | official |
| 8B | Forecast | Shawn Savela (R), Liish Kozlowski (D) | >99% | official |
| 9A | Forecast | Nicholas Hanson (D), Jeff Backer (R) | <1% | official |
| 9B | Forecast | Owen Werner (D), Tom Murphy (R) | <1% | official |
| 10A | Forecast | Melissa Maertens (D), Mark Striemer (R) | <1% | official |
| 10B | Forecast | Jeff Larson (D), Isaac Schultz (R) | <1% | official |
| 11A | Forecast | Chris Swanson (D), Jeff Dotseth (R) | 39% | official |
| 11B | Forecast | Nathan Nelson (R), Jack L'Heureux (D) | <1% | official |
| 12A | Forecast | Paul H. Anderson (R), Talitha Anderson (D) | <1% | official |
| 12B | Forecast | Mary Franson (R), Michael Gardner (D) | <1% | official |
| 13A | Forecast | Arlis Sayler (D), Tanja Goering (R) | <1% | official |
| 13B | Forecast | Dawn Loberg (R), Justin Doyle (D) | <1% | official |
| 14A | Forecast | Abdi Daisane (D), Mike Conway (R) | 19% | official |
| 14B | Forecast | Zachary "Zach" Dorholt (D), Sue Ek (R) | 72% | official |
| 15A | Forecast | Nathan Schmig (D), Bradley L Hennen (R) | <1% | official |
| 15B | Forecast | Geri Theis (R), Keith R. Klawitter (D) | <1% | official |
| 16A | Forecast | Scott Van Binsbergen (R), David J Torgelson (D) | <1% | official |
| 16B | Forecast | Dave Baker (R), Julie Henslin (D) | <1% | official |
| 17A | Forecast | Dawn Gillman (R), Mali Anderson (D) | <1% | official |
| 17B | Forecast | Bobbie Harder (R), Ben Wieman (D) | <1% | official |
| 18A | Forecast | Leah Hanson (D), Erica Schwartz (R) | 37% | official |
| 18B | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Luke Frederick (D) | official | |
| 19A | Forecast | Keith Allen (R), Martha Brown (D) | 1% | official |
| 19B | Forecast | Zack Meyman (D), Thomas J. Sexton (R) | <1% | official |
| 20A | Forecast | Heather Arndt (D), Pam Altendorf (R) | 6% | official |
| 20B | Forecast | Steve Holm (D), Sara Bertschinger (R) | <1% | official |
| 21A | Forecast | Ls Rusty Nelson (D), Krist Wollum (R) | 2% | official |
| 21B | Forecast | Jon Wilson (D), Marj J Fogelman (R) | <1% | official |
| 22A | Forecast | Sonja L. Denn (D), Bjorn Olson (R) | <1% | official |
| 22B | Forecast | Terry Matthew Stier (R), Mary Nesgoda (D) | <1% | official |
| 23A | Forecast | Nick Ronnenberg (R), Joe Staloch (D) | <1% | official |
| 23B | Forecast | Patricia Mueller (R), Christoph Dundas (D) | 5% | official |
| 24A | Forecast | Duane Quam (R), Heather Holmes (D) | 1% | official |
| 24B | Forecast | John Michael Ajouri (R), Tina Liebling (D) | 99% | official |
| 25A | Forecast | Brad Trahan (R), Kim Hicks (D) | 98% | official |
| 25B | Forecast | Wes Lund (R), Andy Smith (D) | >99% | official |
| 26A | Forecast | Dan Wilson (D), Aaron Repinski (R) | 27% | official |
| 26B | Forecast | Gregory M. Davids (R), Allie Wolf (D) | 1% | official |
| 27A | Forecast | Vanessa Davenport (D), Shane Mekeland (R) | <1% | official |
| 27B | Forecast | Bryan Lawrence (R), Charles A. McConaughay (D) | <1% | official |
| 28A | Forecast | Tim Dummer (D), James "Jimmy" Gordon (R) | <1% | official |
| 28B | Forecast | Daniel Colten Schmidt (D), Max Rymer (R) | <1% | official |
| 29A | Forecast | Joe McDonald (R), Emily Dahlgren (D) | <1% | official |
| 29B | Forecast | Marion (O'Neill) Rarick (R), Colton Kratky (D) | <1% | official |
| 30A | Forecast | Walter Hudson (R), Joey Smyth (D) | 1% | official |
| 30B | Forecast | Chad Westberg (R), Keenan Gentry (D) | 1% | official |
| 31A | Forecast | Brian Walker (D), Harry Niska (R) | 2% | official |
| 31B | Forecast | Jen Bloomquist (D), Peggy Scott (R) | <1% | official |
| 32A | Forecast | Nolan West (R), Amanda Matchett (D) | 5% | official |
| 32B | Forecast | Matt Norris (D), Leslie Larson (R) | 87% | official |
| 33A | Forecast | Stacey Stout (R), Angela Thompson (D) | 12% | official |
| 33B | Forecast | Jessica L. Johnson (R), Josiah Hill (D) | 89% | official |
| 34A | Forecast | Danny Nadeau (R), Jason Heaser (D) | 23% | official |
| 34B | Forecast | Xp Lee (D), Ruth Bittner (R) | >99% | official |
| 35A | Forecast | Zack Stephenson (D), Josh Jungling (R) | 91% | official |
| 35B | Forecast | Steve Pape (R), Kari Rehrauer (D) | 86% | official |
| 36A | Forecast | Sebastian Stoss (R), Jim DeMay (D) | 34% | official |
| 36B | Forecast | Patty Bradway (R), Brion Curran (D) | 90% | official |
| 37A | Forecast | Darci Smith (D), Tom McKee (R) | 16% | official |
| 37B | Forecast | Luke Doerer (R), Kristin Bahner (D) | 97% | official |
| 38A | Forecast | Huldah Momanyi-Hiltsley (D), Charlie Kistler (R) | >99% | official |
| 38B | Forecast | Samantha Vang (D), Robert Marvin (R) | >99% | official |
| 39A | Forecast | Andy Macko (R), Aaron Klemz (D) | >99% | official |
| 39B | Forecast | Amáda Márquez Simula (D), Kt Jacobs (R) | >99% | official |
| 40A | Forecast | Luis Withrow (R), Aisha Elmquist (D) | 98% | official |
| 40B | Forecast | Allen Shen (R), David Gottfried (D) | >99% | official |
| 41A | Forecast | Wayne A Johnson (R), Cole Birkeland (D) | 45% | official |
| 41B | Forecast | Jen Fox (D), William Beck (R) | 60% | official |
| 42A | Forecast | Ned Carroll (D), Kathy Burkett (R) | 99% | official |
| 42B | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Ginny Klevorn (D) | official | |
| 43A | Forecast | Kyrstin Schuette (D), Todd Hesemann (R) | >99% | official |
| 43B | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jess Lewis (D) | official | |
| 44A | Forecast | Peter M Fischer (D), Justin Middaugh (R) | >99% | official |
| 44B | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Tj Hawthorne (independent), Leon M. Lillie (D) | official | |
| 45A | Forecast | Tracey Breazeale (D), Andrew Myers (R) | 15% | official |
| 45B | Forecast | Thomas Bergerson (R), Patty Acomb (D) | 99% | official |
| 46A | Forecast | Larry Kraft (D), Karl Olson (R) | >99% | official |
| 46B | Forecast | Cheryl Youakim (D), Kim Rich (R) | >99% | official |
| 47A | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Shelley Buck (D) | official | |
| 47B | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Ethan Cha (D), Kim Wilson (independent) | official | |
| 48A | Forecast | Jim Nash (R), Joe Brothers (D) | 2% | official |
| 48B | Forecast | Caleb Steffenhagen (R), Lucille "Lucy" Rehm (D) | 85% | official |
| 49A | Forecast | Jeff Houdek (R), Alex Falconer (D) | >99% | official |
| 49B | Forecast | Carlie Kotyza-Witthuhn (D), Wendy Cregg (R) | 99% | official |
| 50A | Forecast | Julie Greene (D), Chris Wedum (R) | >99% | official |
| 50B | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Steve Elkins (D) | official | |
| 51A | Forecast | Frank Pafko (R), Michael Howard (D) | >99% | official |
| 51B | Forecast | Jim Lund (R), Nathan Coulter (D) | >99% | official |
| 52A | Forecast | Christos Roy Jensen (D), George Gilmour (R) | 99% | official |
| 52B | Forecast | Bianca Virnig (D), Tom Lopac (R) | >99% | official |
| 53A | Forecast | Aj Gubash (R), Mary Frances Clardy (D) | 99% | official |
| 53B | Forecast | Rick Hansen (D), Patti Mikulski (R) | 99% | official |
| 54A | Forecast | Aaron Paul (R), Brad Tabke (D) | 83% | official |
| 54B | Forecast | Natalie Barnes (R), Christopher Kartschoke (D) | 3% | official |
| 55A | Forecast | Pam Myhra (R), Jessica Hanson (D) | 94% | official |
| 55B | Forecast | Hunter Cantrell (D), Todd Buchwald (R) | 99% | official |
| 56A | Forecast | A.j. Prospect (R), Robert Bierman (D) | >99% | official |
| 56B | Forecast | John Huot (D), Andrew Hattaway (R) | 98% | official |
| 57A | Forecast | Jd Delgado (D), Jon Koznick (R) | 1% | official |
| 57B | Forecast | Brian Cohn (D), Jeff Witte (R) | 31% | official |
| 58A | Forecast | Steven E. Cherney (R), Kristi Pursell (D) | 92% | official |
| 58B | Forecast | Drew Roach (R), Ed Fellows (D) | 3% | official |
| 59A | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Fue Lee (D) | official | |
| 59B | Forecast | Kenneth Smoron (R), Esther Agbaje (D) | >99% | official |
| 60A | Forecast | Sydney Jordan (D), John Holmberg (R) | >99% | official |
| 60B | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Mohamud Noor (D) | official | |
| 61A | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Katie Jones (D) | official | |
| 61B | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jamie Long (D) | official | |
| 62A | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Aisha Gomez (D) | official | |
| 62B | Forecast | Anquam Mahamoud (D), Bob Sullentrop (R) | >99% | official |
| 63A | Forecast | Kyle Bragg (R), Samantha Sencer-Mura (D) | 99% | official |
| 63B | Forecast | Nicholas Peters (R), Emma Greenman (D) | >99% | official |
| 64A | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Meg Luger-Nikolai (D) | official | |
| 64B | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Dave Pinto (D) | official | |
| 65A | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Samakab Hussein (D) | official | |
| 65B | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Sebastian Ellefson (D) | official | |
| 66A | Forecast | Mark Born (R), Leigh Finke (D) | >99% | official |
| 66B | Forecast | Mary O'Neal (R), Athena Hollins (D) | >99% | official |
| 67A | Forecast | Liz Lee (D), Jennifer McPherson (R) | >99% | official |
| 67B | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jay Xiong (D) | official |