New York Senate
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
63 of 63 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 42 seats after November (80% range 39–46) and Republicans 21 (17–24). In 3 seats a Democrat or Republican faces only independents or minor-party candidates and is counted as winning; in 2018 to 2024 such candidates lost about 3% of the time, mostly to sitting independents.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Forecast | E. Christopher Murray (D), Anthony H. Palumbo (R) | 14% | official |
| 2 | Forecast | Harjot Singh (D), Mario R. Mattera (R) | 8% | official |
| 3 | Forecast | Antonio Vargas-Ayala (D), Dean Murray (R) | 1% | official |
| 4 | Forecast | Monica R. Martinez (D), Brianne R. Wakefield (R) | 92% | official |
| 5 | Forecast | Andrew Piddoubny (D), Steven D. Rhoads (R) | 2% | official |
| 6 | Forecast | Siela A. Bynoe (D), Matthew J. Capp (R) | >99% | official |
| 7 | Forecast | Rory Lancman (D), Jake Blumencranz (R) | 33% | official |
| 8 | Forecast | Joshua James Taveras (D), Jarett C. Gandolfo (R) | <1% | official |
| 9 | Forecast | Lisa Malkie Vider (D), Patricia M. Canzoneri-Fitzpatrick (R) | 23% | official |
| 10 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | James Sanders Jr. (D) | official | |
| 11 | Forecast | Toby Ann Stavisky (D), Pamela H. Michos (R) | 97% | official |
| 12 | Forecast | Aber Kawas (D), Han-Khon To (R) | >99% | official |
| 13 | Forecast | Jessica Gonzalez-Rojas (D), John Patrick Healy (R) | 97% | official |
| 14 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Leroy G. Comrie Jr. (D) | official | |
| 15 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Joseph P. Addabbo Jr. (D), Danniel S. Maio (Conservative) | official | |
| 16 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | John C. Liu (D) | official | |
| 17 | Forecast | Larry He (D), Steve Chan (R) | 20% | official |
| 18 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Julia Salazar (D) | official | |
| 19 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Roxanne J. Persaud (D) | official | |
| 20 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Zellnor Y. Myrie (D) | official | |
| 21 | Forecast | Kevin S. Parker (D), Ronald Seifert (R) | 99% | official |
| 22 | Forecast | Sam Sutton (D), Nachman Carl Caller (R) | 1% | official |
| 23 | Forecast | Jessica Scarcella-Spanton (D), Ruslan Shamal (R) | 98% | official |
| 24 | Forecast | Alexis Rodriguez (D), Andrew J. Lanza (R) | 2% | official |
| 25 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jabari Brisport (D) | official | |
| 26 | Forecast | Andrew S. Gounardes (D), Tom Stanten (R) | >99% | official |
| 27 | Forecast | Grace Lee (D), Jason C. Murillo (R) | 99% | official |
| 28 | Forecast | Liz Krueger (D), Alina Bonsell (R) | >99% | official |
| 29 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jose M. Serrano (D) | official | |
| 30 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Cordell Cleare (D) | official | |
| 31 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Robert Jackson (D) | official | |
| 32 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Luis R. Sepulveda (D) | official | |
| 33 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | J. Gustavo Rivera (D) | official | |
| 34 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Nathalia Fernandez (D), Adrian Romero (Conservative) | official | |
| 35 | Forecast | Andrea Stewart-Cousins (D), Anthony J. Merante (R) | >99% | official |
| 36 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Jamaal T. Bailey (D), Grace Marrero (Conservative) | official | |
| 37 | Forecast | Shelley B. Mayer (D), Thomas H. Fix Jr. (R) | >99% | official |
| 38 | Forecast | Joseph W. Rand (D), Bill Weber (R) | 28% | official |
| 39 | Forecast | Lisa Kaul (D), Robert G. Rolison (R) | 52% | official |
| 40 | Forecast | Peter B. Harckham (D), Sergio J. Esposito (R) | 96% | official |
| 41 | Forecast | Michelle Hinchey (D), Patrick Sheehan (R) | 99% | official |
| 42 | Forecast | James G. Skoufis (D), Jennifer R. Figueroa (R), Joshua Blumenthal (Conservative) | 97% | official |
| 43 | Forecast | Devin R. Lander (D), Jake Ashby (R) | 43% | official |
| 44 | Forecast | Sarah F. Rogerson (D), James N. Tedisco (R) | 8% | official |
| 45 | Forecast | Melissa T. Seale (D), Daniel G. Stec (R) | 4% | official |
| 46 | Forecast | Patricia A. Fahy (D), Martha G. McHugh (R) | 99% | official |
| 47 | Forecast | Erik D. Bottcher (D), Charlotte Friedman (R) | >99% | official |
| 48 | Forecast | Rachel May (D), Richard McCarron Jr. (R) | 99% | official |
| 49 | Forecast | Cassie L. Robbins-Forbus (D), Mark C. Walczyk (R) | 2% | official |
| 50 | Forecast | Christopher J. Ryan (D), James Corl (R) | 88% | official |
| 51 | Forecast | Michele Frazier (D), Christopher W. Tague (R) | 13% | official |
| 52 | Forecast | Lea Webb (D), Michael S. Bolles (R) | >99% | official |
| 53 | Forecast | Mandi Drake (D), Joseph A. Griffo (R) | <1% | official |
| 54 | Forecast | Michael Mills (D), Pamela A. Helming (R) | 11% | official |
| 55 | Forecast | Samra G. Brouk (D), Chris Brown (R) | >99% | official |
| 56 | Forecast | Jeremy A. Cooney (D), Orlando Rivera (R) | 99% | official |
| 57 | Forecast | Victoria A. Guite-Williams (D), George M. Borrello (R) | 2% | official |
| 58 | Forecast | James J. Bobreski (D), Thomas Fellers O'Mara (R) | 3% | official |
| 59 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Kristen Gonzalez (D) | official | |
| 60 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Patrick M. Gallivan (R) | official | |
| 61 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jonathan D. Rivera (D) | official | |
| 62 | Forecast | Thomas E. Arida (D), Robert G. Ortt (R) | 3% | official |
| 63 | Forecast | April N. McCants-Baskin (D), Geoffrey M. Szymanski (R) | >99% | official |