Virginia · Senate
election 2026-11-03 · forecast as of 2026-10-01 · margins and probabilities are for Mark Warner
Who is running?
Mark Warner (Democratic), Bert Mizusawa (Republican). The margin below is Mark Warner minus the other candidate in the main contest; the rest are on the ballot and not in it.
The race, in brief
Virginia elects a U.S. senator on November 3, 2026. The state profile on file records a non-Hispanic white share of 0.6, a college share of 0.4 and a federal worker share of 0.1. The text notes that Republicans have not won a Senate election in Virginia since 2002.
Democratic incumbent Mark Warner, a senator since 2009, is seeking a fourth term and was unopposed in the August 4 primary. The Republican nominee is Bert Mizusawa, a retired Army major general and 2018 Senate candidate, who won his primary with 51.5% over David Williams and Kim Farington; state senator Bryce Reeves withdrew and endorsed him. As of July 15, 2026 Warner had raised $25,160,577 with $16,114,725 on hand, Mizusawa $376,213 with $52,964 on hand. Two proposed debates, by AARP and the League of Women Voters, were canceled, with the Warner campaign's noncommittal stance cited.
All ten raters listed rate the race D, with dates from September 17 to September 26, 2026. The only Warner–Mizusawa polls in the text predate the primary: The Public Sentiment Institute (June 12–16, 2026, 996 likely voters) had Warner 51%, Mizusawa 33%, and its May 1–5 poll with the Virginia Project (R) had Warner 55%, Mizusawa 29%.
A paragraph quoting a model forecast from the day this brief was written is omitted; the current forecast is at the top of this page.
The facts, each beside its sentence
Democratic incumbent Mark Warner is seeking a fourth term.
Democratic incumbent Mark Warner is seeking a fourth term.
Mark Warner, incumbent U.S. senator (2009–present)
He is being challenged by Republican Army general Bert Mizusawa.
Mark Warner, incumbent U.S. senator (2009–present)
Bert Mizusawa, retired United States Army major general, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018, and candidate for VA-02 in 2010
Mizusawa won the Republican nomination with 51.5% of the vote over Marine Corps Reserves officer David Williams and financial accountant Kim Farington.
The Cook Political Report D September 23, 2026 Decision Desk HQ D September 25, 2026
Mark Warner (D) $25,160,577 $9,434,262 $16,114,725 |Bert Mizusawa (R) $376,213 $323,248 $52,964
Two proposed debates were canceled, with the Warner campaign's noncommittal stance cited as the reason for both cancellations.
The Public Sentiment Institute June 12–16, 2026 996 (LV) ± 3.7% |51% 33% 3%"Mark Moran (I)" with 3% 14%
The Public Sentiment Institute/ Virginia Project (R) May 1–5, 2026 1,047 (LV) ± 3.7% |55% 29%
Bryce Reeves, state senator from SD-28 (2012–present) (endorsed Mizusawa)
June 17, 2026 Moran withdraws from the race
Republicans have not won a Senate election in Virginia since 2002.
Not in the source: facts.forecast carries no basis field, so the dossier cannot say whether the model uses any state polls.; facts.candidates marks Warner as incumbent: false, while the text names him the Democratic incumbent.; No general-election poll after the August 4 primary appears in the text.; Ratings are given only as 'D', with no Safe/Likely/Lean grade.; No endorsements are listed beyond Reeves's (the endorsement sections are empty in the text).
Read from the district's section of Wikipedia's state page (CC BY-SA), archived as df5493f8f7f8; written by claude-fable-5-1 (batch reader) on 2026-09-30 and checked mechanically: every quote occurs verbatim in the archived text, every number in the brief occurs in the inputs. No probability here is the reader's.
Who holds the seat now
Mark R. Warner (Democrat), in this chamber since 2009, 3 terms, class 2 (term ends 2027). Committees: Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs; Senate Committee on Finance; Senate Committee on Rules and Administration; Senate Committee on the Budget; Senate Select Committee on Intelligence (Vice Chairman).
Tim Kaine (Democrat), in this chamber since 2013, 3 terms, class 1 (term ends 2031). Committees: Senate Committee on Armed Services; Senate Committee on Foreign Relations; Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions; Senate Committee on the Budget.
From the congress-legislators dataset (CC0), archived as ae8cb9477c48. For a Senate race this lists both of the state's senators; the one whose term ends in the election year holds the seat on the ballot. For a House district redrawn for 2026 it is the member elected under the old lines with this number, who may be running elsewhere; the dossier above names who is running here.
The money
| Candidate | Raised | Cash on hand | PAC share | Self-funded | Outside $ for | Outside $ against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warner, Mark Robert (DEM) incumbent | $17,889,335 | $16,114,725 | 12% | 0% | $150,080 | $0 |
| Mizusawa, Bert K (REP) challenger | $418,742 | $90,328 | 1% | 41% | $0 | $0 |
| Farington, Kim (REP) challenger · not on our roster | $144,778 | $16,160 | 0% | 71% | $0 | $0 |
| Reeves, Bryce (REP) challenger · not on our roster | $106,324 | $0 | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Williams, David Earl Mr. (REP) challenger · not on our roster | $97,045 | $7,188 | 0% | 47% | $0 | $0 |
| Daniels, Lorita Dr. (DEM) challenger · not on our roster | $57,160 | $7,038 | 0% | 83% | $0 | $0 |
| Smith, C.L. Chuck Jr (REP) challenger · not on our roster | $45,715 | $546 | 0% | 15% | $0 | $0 |
| Eichelberger, Gregory (DEM) challenger · not on our roster | $5,698 | $0 | 0% | 69% | $0 | $0 |
| De Paula, Alex (REP) challenger · not on our roster | $5,675 | $1,675 | 0% | 97% | $0 | $0 |
FEC bulk candidate summaries through July 15, 2026; $150,080 of independent expenditures for or against these candidates this cycle (FEC Schedule E, types 24E and 24A), which is the parties' and outside groups' own revealed view of whether this seat is in play.
How it has voted for president
| Two-party margin | 2016 | 2020 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| President | D+5.7 | D+10.3 | D+5.9 |
A shift of 0.2 points toward the Democrats from 2016 to 2024. county returns summed; MEDSL county file (2016), an MIT-licensed county file (2020, checked against certified state results) and MEDSL precinct returns (2024). For a district split across counties this is an estimate, and where the state published the exact 2024 figure for these lines, that exact figure is the one the model uses.
The state in numbers
| Measure | State | Average state | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bachelor's degree or higher, 25+, 2023 | 41.5% | 34.0% | +7.5 pts |
| White, non-Hispanic, 2023 | 59.0% | 66.3% | -7.3 pts |
| Black, non-Hispanic, 2023 | 18.4% | 10.1% | +8.3 pts |
| Hispanic or Latino, 2023 | 10.7% | 12.9% | -2.1 pts |
| Asian, non-Hispanic, 2023 | 6.8% | 4.4% | +2.5 pts |
| Foreign-born, 2023 | 12.9% | 9.6% | +3.3 pts |
| Median age, 2023 | 38.8 | 39.1 | -0.28 |
| Median household income, 2023 | $90,974 | $77,633 | $+13,341 |
| Median home value, 2023 | $360,700 | $314,132 | $+46,568 |
| Owner-occupied homes, 2023 | 67.2% | 67.4% | -0.2 pts |
| Unemployment (ACS), 2023 | 4.3% | 4.8% | -0.5 pts |
| Federal government workers, 2023 | 8.2% | 3.0% | +5.1 pts |
| Work from home, 2023 | 16.2% | 12.3% | +4.0 pts |
| Households on SNAP, 2023 | 8.8% | 11.1% | -2.3 pts |
| Households with Social Security income, 2023 | 29.7% | 32.1% | -2.4 pts |
| Households with public assistance income, 2023 | 2.2% | 2.6% | -0.4 pts |
| Moved in from another state, past year, 2023 | 3.1% | 2.9% | +0.3 pts |
| Gini index, 2023 | 0.47 | 0.47 | +0.01 |
| Unemployment, latest month (BLS), 2026-07 | 3.7% | 4.0% | -0.3 pts |
| Change in unemployment, past 12 months, 2026-07 | +0.2 pts | -0.1 pts | +0.4 pts |
| Change since the last election (24 months), 2026-07 | +0.5 pts | -0.1 pts | +0.6 pts |
| Per-capita personal income (BEA), 2024 | $77,270 | $70,662 | $+6,608 |
| Per-capita income growth since 2019, nominal, 2024 | 32.5% | 32.4% | +0.2 pts |
| Government and other transfers, share of income, 2024 | 16.2% | 19.4% | -3.2 pts |
| Social Security, share of income, 2022 | 5.1% | 6.1% | -1.0 pts |
| Medicare, share of income, 2022 | 3.3% | 4.4% | -1.0 pts |
| Medicaid, share of income, 2022 | 3.3% | 3.8% | -0.5 pts |
| SNAP, share of income, 2022 | 0.5% | 0.6% | -0.1 pts |
| Earned Income Tax Credit, share of income, 2022 | 0.3% | 0.3% | -0.1 pts |
| Veterans' benefits, share of income, 2022 | 1.1% | 0.9% | +0.2 pts |
| Federal civilian jobs, share of all jobs, 2022 | 3.7% | 1.5% | +2.2 pts |
| Military jobs, share of all jobs, 2022 | 2.1% | 1.2% | +1.0 pts |
ACS 5-year state tables; BLS county unemployment and BEA county income, transfers and jobs summed to the state. Every figure is a named column of a named public-domain table, archived before it was read.
Who is ahead, and by how much?
Two numbers because they answer two questions. The nowcast is where opinion stands; the election-day forecast is where it is likely to end up.
How likely is each to win?
Monte Carlo error is ±0.1 points. A change smaller than that is simulation noise rather than news, and this page will not describe it as movement.
How wide is the range?
Nowcast: 90% of simulations fall between +2.2 and +36.2 points. Election day: +2.4 to +38.9. The election-day interval is 2.5 points wider, which is the 33 days of movement still to come.
What is the uncertainty made of?
Total sd 11.16 points, made of latent opinion 62%, race-specific polling error 20%, drift to election day 13%, correlated polling error 5%. The decomposition is stored with the forecast rather than reconstructed, so a probability whose dominant input is a placeholder is visibly that.
What evidence is this built on?
2 polls, most recent 2026-06-16. every input is provisional.
What changed since the last run?
Shaded band is the 90% interval, line is the central estimate, positive is Mark Warner ahead of Bert Mizusawa. Over 15 stored forecasts the central estimate moved -1.2 points. There were 6 specification changes (marked on the axis) and no new polls arrived over this window — so every movement in this chart is a change to the model, not a change in the race.
Since 2026-10-01: margin +0.00 points, win probability +0.0 points, on +0 polls. Of that, +0.00 points came from +0 poll(s), +2.37 from the shorter horizon, and -2.37 from the model specification.
How has this model done before?
Measured on 230 forecasts across 230 races in cycles 2016,2018,2020,2022,2024: mean absolute error 4.56 points, Brier score 0.0543. The nominal 90% interval contained the result 94% of the time, the 80% interval 84%, and the 50% interval 47%. Read that with care: a national polling miss moves every race in a cycle at once, so the sample size for a question about the intervals is 5 cycle(s), not 230 forecasts. Per cycle -- bias +1.644 pts; 2016: n=43 bias=+4.68 cov90=0.860; 2018: n=63 bias=-0.52 cov90=1.000; 2020: n=35 bias=+5.44 cov90=0.886; 2022: n=54 bias=-0.60 cov90=0.944; 2024: n=35 bias=+1.48 cov90=1.000.
Where did every number come from?
Nowcast run 4313b6fe-103f-4517-8a62-79b93e885772 and election-day run 46ee9b34-513a-4744-b8f8-504e9e00511c, model single_race_latent/0.8.1 at commit bdf7e83107c17a2399efe61a44ef1bbee48f9284, seeds 20260924 and 20260924.