New Hampshire Senate
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
24 of 24 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 9 seats after November (80% range 8–13) and Republicans 15 (11–16). Neither party wins a majority in 7% of the simulations: the parties can tie at 12 seats each. Who then runs the chamber depends on the state: a coalition, a power-sharing agreement, or, in some Senates, the lieutenant governor's tie-breaking vote.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Forecast | Cathleen A. Fountain (D), David Rochefort (R) | 7% | civic guide |
| 2 | Forecast | Timothy P. Lang Sr. (R), Kurt Webber (D) | 4% | civic guide |
| 3 | Forecast | Bobbi Boudman (D), Mark E. McConkey (R) | 7% | civic guide |
| 4 | Forecast | Shawn Mickelonis (R), David H. Watters (D) | >99% | civic guide |
| 5 | Forecast | Suzanne M. Prentiss (D), Conrad Schoeffter (R) | >99% | civic guide |
| 6 | Forecast | Cecil Abels (D), James P. Gray (R) | 2% | civic guide |
| 7 | Forecast | Rebecca Harned (D), Daniel Innis (R) | 12% | civic guide |
| 8 | Forecast | Jim Creighton (R), David Trumble (D) | 9% | civic guide |
| 9 | Forecast | Matthew McLaughlin (D), Denise Ricciardi (R) | 35% | civic guide |
| 10 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Donovan Fenton (D) | civic guide | |
| 11 | Forecast | Shannon E. Chandley (D), Tim McGough (R) | 40% | civic guide |
| 12 | Forecast | Kevin A. Avard (R), Carryl L. Roy (D) | 10% | civic guide |
| 13 | Forecast | Daniel J. Paul (R), Laura Telerski (D) | 96% | civic guide |
| 14 | Forecast | Sharon M. Carson (R), Timothy Wyatt (D) | 3% | civic guide |
| 15 | Forecast | Dennis Blankenbeker (R), Tara Reardon (D) | >99% | civic guide |
| 16 | Forecast | Dian McCarthy (D), Keith Murphy (R) | 8% | civic guide |
| 17 | Forecast | Robert Lawliss (D), Howard C. Pearl (R) | 5% | civic guide |
| 18 | Forecast | Leonard Bell (D), Victoria Sullivan (R) | 36% | civic guide |
| 19 | Forecast | Regina M. Birdsell (R), Michelle Moge (D) | 2% | civic guide |
| 20 | Forecast | Patrick Binder (R), Patrick "Pat" Long (D) | 98% | civic guide |
| 21 | Forecast | Jeffrey D. Berlin (R), Rebecca Perkins Kwoka (D) | >99% | civic guide |
| 22 | Forecast | Daryl A. Abbas (R), Chris Tardif (D) | 1% | civic guide |
| 23 | Forecast | David Childs (D), William "Bill" Gannon (R) | 1% | civic guide |
| 24 | Forecast | Debra Altschiller (D), Lou Gargiulo (R) | 96% | civic guide |