Oregon Senate
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
15 of 30 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 19 seats after November (80% range 17–20) and Republicans 11 (10–13). Neither party wins a majority in 1% of the simulations: the parties can tie at 15 seats each. Who then runs the chamber depends on the state: a coalition, a power-sharing agreement, or, in some Senates, the lieutenant governor's tie-breaking vote.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 2 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 3 | Forecast | Clay Bearnson (independent), Brad Hicks (R), Denise D Krause (D) | 84% | official |
| 4 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Floyd Prozanski (D) | official | |
| 5 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 6 | Forecast | Jack Tibbetts (R), Caleb Ticer (Libertarian), Sierrah Williams (D) | 1% | official |
| 7 | Forecast | Jack (Jake) D Huff (R), James I Manning Jr. (D) | >99% | official |
| 8 | Forecast | Valerie Draper Woldeit (R), Sara Gelser Blouin (D) | 99% | official |
| 9 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 10 | Forecast | Deb Patterson (D), Angela Plowhead (R) | 96% | official |
| 11 | Forecast | Tracy M Cramer (R), Virginia Stapleton (D) | 52% | official |
| 12 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 13 | Forecast | Glenn Lancaster (R), Tim E Nelson (Libertarian), Courtney Neron Misslin (D) | 99% | official |
| 14 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 15 | Forecast | Harold Hutchison (R), Myrna A Munoz (D) | 95% | official |
| 16 | Forecast | Rachel Armitage (D), Courtney Bangs (R), Melisa Finkle (independent) | 21% | official |
| 17 | Forecast | John A N Chee (R), Lisa Reynolds (D) | >99% | official |
| 18 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 19 | Forecast | Mary Dirksen (R), Rob Wagner (D) | >99% | official |
| 20 | Forecast | Mark Meek (D), Michele Stroh (R) | 87% | official |
| 21 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 22 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 23 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 24 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Kayse Jama (D) | official | |
| 25 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 26 | Forecast | Nicole Bassett (D), Jeff Helfrich (R) | 9% | official |
| 27 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 28 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 29 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 30 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) |