CA-6: no forecast published
The House model forecasts a district only when it can identify the one contest the seat will be decided in.
Why not here: Richard Pan (D) faces Rep. Kevin Kiley, who left the Republican Party in March 2026 and is on the ballot as No Party Preference. In the June top-two primary Kiley led with about 25%, Pan had about 23% and Republican Michael Stansfield about 21%. The model has no way to represent an incumbent running without a party label, so it publishes no race forecast here.
Sources: https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/statewide-elections/2026-general/cert-list-candidates.pdf; https://www.abridged.org/news/congressional-district-6-results/; https://ballotpedia.org/Kevin_Kiley
In the House total: the seat is still counted. The House model's own estimate, which does not depend on naming the candidates, gives the Democratic side a 99% chance, an expected margin of D+21. What is held back is a race page that names who that is.
Caveat: The House total counts this seat at the model's estimate, which treats Kiley as an ordinary Republican incumbent in a district that leans Democratic by about 10 points. The primary suggests a much closer race than that, so the estimate is very likely too favourable to Pan; the effect on the House total is under one seat.
Candidates on record: Kevin Kiley, Richard Pan.