Kentucky · Senate
election 2026-11-03 · forecast as of 2026-10-01 · margins and probabilities are for Charles Booker
Who is running?
Charles Booker (Democratic), Andy Barr (Republican), Christopher Campbell (no party recorded). The margin below is Charles Booker minus the other candidate in the main contest; the rest are on the ballot and not in it.
The race, in brief
Kentucky elects a U.S. senator on November 3, 2026, in what the text calls the first open Senate election in the state since 2010: Republican Mitch McConnell, first elected in 1984, is not seeking an eighth term. The text describes Kentucky as a Republican stronghold that has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1992, though Democrats hold the governorship. The state profile records a white non-Hispanic share of 0.8 and a college share of 0.3.
The Republican nominee is congressman Andy Barr, in the House since 2013, who was endorsed by Donald Trump and won the May 19 primary with 60.5% over former attorney general Daniel Cameron. The Democratic nominee is former state representative Charles Booker, the party's 2022 nominee, who won 46.8% over Amy McGrath (35.9%) and Pamela Stevenson (6.2%). An independent, Christopher Todd Campbell, has declared. As of June 30, 2026 Barr had raised $9,981,055 with $2,305,546 on hand; Booker $1,099,509 with $309,623 on hand.
All ten raters listed call the race R. The latest general-election poll, Global Strategy Group (D), August 24–27, 2026, had Barr 49%, Booker 40%; Race to the WH averages Barr 49.8%, Booker 39.2%.
A paragraph quoting a model forecast from the day this brief was written is omitted; the current forecast is at the top of this page.
The facts, each beside its sentence
Republican incumbent Mitch McConnell is not seeking an eighth term.
This will be the first open Senate election in Kentucky since 2010.
Republican congressman Andy Barr and Democratic former state representative Charles Booker are the nominees for their respective parties.
Republican congressman Andy Barr and Democratic former state representative Charles Booker are the nominees for their respective parties.
Charles Booker, former state representative (2019–2021), nominee for U.S. Senate in 2022 and candidate in 2020
Andy Barr, U.S. representative from 6 (2013–present)
McConnell was first elected in 1984, defeating then-incumbent Walter Dee Huddleston, and was re-elected in six subsequent elections.
Barr won the Republican nomination with 60.5% of the vote over former state attorney general Daniel Cameron. Booker, the Democratic nominee in 2022, was nominated a second time with 47% of the vote
The Economist R September 26, 2026 FiftyPlusOne R September 26, 2026
Charles Booker (D) $1,099,509 $789,887 $309,623
Global Strategy Group (D) August 24–27, 2026 600 (LV) ± 4.0% |49% 40% 11%
Trump endorses Barr, Morris withdraws from the race and endorses Barr
==Independents== ===Candidates=== ====Declared==== *Christopher Todd Campbell
Democrats have not won a Senate race in Kentucky since 1992.
Not in the source: Cameron's and the other Republicans' primary vote shares are not given; the results table is cut off after Barr.; Barr's House district number is garbled in the text ('U.S. representative from 6').; The lead gives Booker 47% while the results table gives 46.8%.; The forecast rows carry no basis field, so the text cannot say whether the model uses the statewide polls listed here.; No presidential results for Kentucky are given in the text.
Read from the district's section of Wikipedia's state page (CC BY-SA), archived as 40ec1222d22a; written by claude-fable-5-1 (batch reader) on 2026-09-30 and checked mechanically: every quote occurs verbatim in the archived text, every number in the brief occurs in the inputs. No probability here is the reader's.
Who holds the seat now
Mitch McConnell (Republican), in this chamber since 1985, 7 terms, class 2 (term ends 2027). Committees: Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry; Senate Committee on Appropriations; Senate Committee on Rules and Administration (Chairman); Joint Committee on Printing (Chairman); Joint Committee of Congress on the Library (Vice Chairman).
Rand Paul (Republican), in this chamber since 2011, 3 terms, class 3 (term ends 2029). Committees: Senate Committee on Foreign Relations; Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions; Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs (Chairman); Senate Committee on Small Business and Entrepreneurship.
From the congress-legislators dataset (CC0), archived as ae8cb9477c48. For a Senate race this lists both of the state's senators; the one whose term ends in the election year holds the seat on the ballot. For a House district redrawn for 2026 it is the member elected under the old lines with this number, who may be running elsewhere; the dossier above names who is running here.
The money
| Candidate | Raised | Cash on hand | PAC share | Self-funded | Outside $ for | Outside $ against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barr, Garland Andy (REP) open seat | $9,981,055 | $2,305,546 | 19% | 0% | $6,980,569 | $8,317,499 |
| Morris, Nate (REP) open seat · not on our roster | $8,631,719 | $382,545 | 1% | 73% | $11,589,992 | $7,428,869 |
| Mcgrath, Amy (DEM) open seat · not on our roster | $2,373,625 | $3,125 | 1% | 0% | $154,395 | $0 |
| Cameron, Daniel (REP) open seat · not on our roster | $2,254,283 | $8,457 | 0% | 0% | $349,934 | $3,943,594 |
| Booker, Charles (DEM) open seat | $1,099,509 | $309,623 | 2% | 0% | $28,425 | $0 |
| Romans, Dale (DEM) open seat · not on our roster | $838,360 | $166,911 | 0% | 0% | $10,500 | $0 |
| Willett, Joel (DEM) open seat · not on our roster | $350,036 | $28,787 | 1% | 57% | $0 | $0 |
| Stevenson, Pamela (DEM) open seat · not on our roster | $311,392 | $-13,505 | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Mcconnell, Mitch (REP) incumbent · not on our roster | $217,447 | $7,341,792 | 7% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Faris, Michael James (REP) open seat · not on our roster | $61,530 | $-16,841 | 2% | 17% | $0 | $0 |
| Faris, Michael (REP) open seat · not on our roster | $61,530 | $-16,841 | 2% | 17% | $0 | $0 |
| Forsythe, Logan (DEM) open seat · not on our roster | $46,938 | $3,133 | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Wenzel, Donald Ray (REP) · not on our roster | $2,531 | $0 | 4% | 96% | $0 | $0 |
FEC bulk candidate summaries through June 30, 2026; $38,803,777 of independent expenditures for or against these candidates this cycle (FEC Schedule E, types 24E and 24A), which is the parties' and outside groups' own revealed view of whether this seat is in play.
How it has voted for president
| Two-party margin | 2016 | 2020 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| President | R+31.3 | R+26.4 | R+31.0 |
A shift of 0.3 points toward the Democrats from 2016 to 2024. county returns summed; MEDSL county file (2016), an MIT-licensed county file (2020, checked against certified state results) and MEDSL precinct returns (2024). For a district split across counties this is an estimate, and where the state published the exact 2024 figure for these lines, that exact figure is the one the model uses.
The state in numbers
| Measure | State | Average state | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bachelor's degree or higher, 25+, 2023 | 27.0% | 34.0% | -7.0 pts |
| White, non-Hispanic, 2023 | 82.3% | 66.3% | +16.0 pts |
| Black, non-Hispanic, 2023 | 7.8% | 10.1% | -2.3 pts |
| Hispanic or Latino, 2023 | 4.7% | 12.9% | -8.2 pts |
| Asian, non-Hispanic, 2023 | 1.5% | 4.4% | -2.9 pts |
| Foreign-born, 2023 | 4.4% | 9.6% | -5.2 pts |
| Median age, 2023 | 39.1 | 39.1 | +0.02 |
| Median household income, 2023 | $62,417 | $77,633 | $-15,216 |
| Median home value, 2023 | $192,300 | $314,132 | $-121,832 |
| Owner-occupied homes, 2023 | 68.3% | 67.4% | +0.9 pts |
| Unemployment (ACS), 2023 | 4.8% | 4.8% | +0.0 pts |
| Federal government workers, 2023 | 2.4% | 3.0% | -0.7 pts |
| Work from home, 2023 | 9.1% | 12.3% | -3.2 pts |
| Households on SNAP, 2023 | 12.7% | 11.1% | +1.6 pts |
| Households with Social Security income, 2023 | 34.8% | 32.1% | +2.7 pts |
| Households with public assistance income, 2023 | 1.9% | 2.6% | -0.8 pts |
| Moved in from another state, past year, 2023 | 2.4% | 2.9% | -0.5 pts |
| Gini index, 2023 | 0.48 | 0.47 | +0.01 |
| Unemployment, latest month (BLS), 2026-07 | 5.1% | 4.0% | +1.2 pts |
| Change in unemployment, past 12 months, 2026-07 | -0.1 pts | -0.1 pts | +0.0 pts |
| Change since the last election (24 months), 2026-07 | -0.5 pts | -0.1 pts | -0.4 pts |
| Per-capita personal income (BEA), 2024 | $58,256 | $70,662 | $-12,406 |
| Per-capita income growth since 2019, nominal, 2024 | 34.0% | 32.4% | +1.6 pts |
| Government and other transfers, share of income, 2024 | 26.1% | 19.4% | +6.7 pts |
| Social Security, share of income, 2022 | 7.5% | 6.1% | +1.5 pts |
| Medicare, share of income, 2022 | 5.7% | 4.4% | +1.3 pts |
| Medicaid, share of income, 2022 | 6.4% | 3.8% | +2.6 pts |
| SNAP, share of income, 2022 | 0.6% | 0.6% | +0.0 pts |
| Earned Income Tax Credit, share of income, 2022 | 0.5% | 0.3% | +0.1 pts |
| Veterans' benefits, share of income, 2022 | 1.0% | 0.9% | +0.1 pts |
| Federal civilian jobs, share of all jobs, 2022 | 1.3% | 1.5% | -0.2 pts |
| Military jobs, share of all jobs, 2022 | 1.8% | 1.2% | +0.7 pts |
ACS 5-year state tables; BLS county unemployment and BEA county income, transfers and jobs summed to the state. Every figure is a named column of a named public-domain table, archived before it was read.
Who is ahead, and by how much?
Two numbers because they answer two questions. The nowcast is where opinion stands; the election-day forecast is where it is likely to end up.
How likely is each to win?
Monte Carlo error is ±0.1 points. A change smaller than that is simulation noise rather than news, and this page will not describe it as movement.
How wide is the range?
Nowcast: 90% of simulations fall between -32.0 and +2.1 points. Election day: -32.5 to +4.0. The election-day interval is 2.5 points wider, which is the 33 days of movement still to come.
What is the uncertainty made of?
Total sd 11.16 points, made of latent opinion 62%, race-specific polling error 20%, drift to election day 13%, correlated polling error 5%. The decomposition is stored with the forecast rather than reconstructed, so a probability whose dominant input is a placeholder is visibly that.
What evidence is this built on?
2 polls, most recent 2026-08-27. every input is provisional.
What changed since the last run?
Shaded band is the 90% interval, line is the central estimate, positive is Charles Booker ahead of Andy Barr. Over 15 stored forecasts the central estimate moved -3.9 points. There were 6 specification changes (marked on the axis) and no new polls arrived over this window — so every movement in this chart is a change to the model, not a change in the race.
Since 2026-10-01: margin +0.00 points, win probability +0.0 points, on +0 polls.
Not answered here: why it changed. Splitting a move into new polls, time and specification means re-running the earlier model against the later inputs -- two extra posterior fits -- so it is computed on a cadence (scripts/attribute_forecasts.py) rather than while you wait. This pair of runs has not been decomposed yet. The size of the move is shown; the cause is not guessed at.
How has this model done before?
Measured on 230 forecasts across 230 races in cycles 2016,2018,2020,2022,2024: mean absolute error 4.56 points, Brier score 0.0543. The nominal 90% interval contained the result 94% of the time, the 80% interval 84%, and the 50% interval 47%. Read that with care: a national polling miss moves every race in a cycle at once, so the sample size for a question about the intervals is 5 cycle(s), not 230 forecasts. Per cycle -- bias +1.644 pts; 2016: n=43 bias=+4.68 cov90=0.860; 2018: n=63 bias=-0.52 cov90=1.000; 2020: n=35 bias=+5.44 cov90=0.886; 2022: n=54 bias=-0.60 cov90=0.944; 2024: n=35 bias=+1.48 cov90=1.000.
Where did every number come from?
Nowcast run 027d3930-bbb3-4220-bf66-bd7139515b64 and election-day run 964bd323-20b9-4b62-bba8-493d4ee76ff4, model single_race_latent/0.8.1 at commit bdf7e83107c17a2399efe61a44ef1bbee48f9284, seeds 20260924 and 20260924.