TX-32 · House

The district, in brief

Texas's 32nd is a new district for 2026. It covers suburbs north and northeast of Dallas, including most of the Dallas County portion of Carrollton and Addison, all of Richardson, the northern halves of Garland and Rowlett and the far north side of Dallas, then stretches east across Lake Ray Hubbard through Rockwall County to Tyler exurbs such as Mineola and Gilmer. In 2024 the new district gave 57.7% to Donald Trump and 55.2% to Ted Cruz; the text says Democrats are considered competitive only in the Dallas County and Richardson portion. The seat is open: the previous incumbent, Democrat Julie Johnson, was drawn into the 24th and is running in the 33rd.

The Democratic nominee is Dan Barrios, a Richardson city councilor, who won his primary 60.4% to 39.6% over Anthony Bridges and is endorsed by Colin Allred, Julie Johnson and the Dallas Morning News. The Republican nominee is Jace Yarbrough, an attorney and 2024 candidate for Texas's 30th Senate district, who led a nine-way primary with 49.0%; Ryan Binkley, a 2024 presidential candidate who self-funded $1,504,000, advanced to a runoff but withdrew. Yarbrough is endorsed by Donald Trump, Greg Abbott, Speaker Mike Johnson and Steve Scalise. As of June 30, 2026 Yarbrough had raised $865,911 with $86,057 on hand; Barrios $94,438 with $6,043 on hand.

All five raters list the seat as Flip: Decision Desk HQ (July 14, 2026), the Cook Political Report (August 23, 2025), Inside Elections (August 28, 2025), Sabato's Crystal Ball (August 29, 2025) and Silver Bulletin (August 20, 2026). The only poll in the text is a Republican primary poll by Stratus Intelligence (R), September 24–26, 2025.

A paragraph quoting a model forecast from the day this brief was written is omitted; the current forecast is at the top of this page.

The facts, each beside its sentence

Not in the source: No general-election district polls are in the text; the only poll is a Republican primary poll, and the model's basis says no district polls.; The raters' entries say only 'Flip', with no party or Lean/Likely/Safe qualifier.; The text gives no biography for Barrios beyond Richardson city councilor.; The model's forecast points the opposite way from the presidential baseline the facts record on the new lines; the text does not explain this.

Read from the district's section of Wikipedia's state page (CC BY-SA), archived as efe72be7e14a; written by claude-fable-5-1 (batch reader) on 2026-09-30 and checked mechanically: every quote occurs verbatim in the archived text, every number in the brief occurs in the inputs. No probability here is the reader's.

Who holds the seat now

Julie Johnson (Democrat), in this chamber since 2025, 1 term. Committees: Joint Committee of Congress on the Library; House Committee on Homeland Security; House Committee on Foreign Affairs; House Committee on House Administration.

From the congress-legislators dataset (CC0), archived as ae8cb9477c48. For a Senate race this lists both of the state's senators; the one whose term ends in the election year holds the seat on the ballot. For a House district redrawn for 2026 it is the member elected under the old lines with this number, who may be running elsewhere; the dossier above names who is running here.

How it has voted for president

A shift of 4.9 points toward the Republicans from 2016 to 2024. county returns placed on the current lines by 2020 block population; MEDSL county file (2016), an MIT-licensed county file (2020, checked against certified state results) and MEDSL precinct returns (2024). For a district split across counties this is an estimate, and where the state published the exact 2024 figure for these lines, that exact figure is the one the model uses.

Who are the voters?

Of about 516,528 adults 25 and over. In 2020 the district voted 44.9% Democratic (two-party) for president. With the same preferences and a 2022-style midterm turnout, it would vote 44.9% Democratic: the midterm electorate alone moves the margin 0.0 points toward Democrats. Group shares are estimated from how results vary across the state's census tracts (ecological inference, anchored to Pew's 2020 validated-voter figures) and calibrated to this district's actual 2020 vote; turnout is the Census survey's state rate by race and national rate by education, whose state samples carry margins of several points.

Not answered here: how each group will vote in 2026. These are 2020 preferences; this profile is description, not yet an input to the forecast.

The money

FEC bulk candidate summaries through September 02, 2026; $1,720,219 of independent expenditures for or against these candidates this cycle (FEC Schedule E, types 24E and 24A), which is the parties' and outside groups' own revealed view of whether this seat is in play.

The district in numbers

ACS 5-year 2023, assembled from census tracts by the 2020 population of their blocks inside the current lines, because the Bureau has not tabulated these lines; medians are population-weighted means of tract medians. Unemployment is the BLS county series placed on the district by block population, not seasonally adjusted, so changes are same-month comparisons. Income, transfers and jobs are BEA county accounts placed the same way, compared with the average district. Every other figure is a named column of a named table in the Bureau's summary file, archived before it was read. This is what a reader knows about a district before looking at a poll; the model does not yet use it, and whether it should is a registered question.

Who is favoured, and by how much?

The 90% interval runs from -18.6 to +11.1 points, D-R. It is wide because this district has never been polled.

What is this built on?

A model trained on every contested House race 2012-2024 predicts this district's lean from its own record: presidential and House results on the current lines, incumbency, both candidates' prior offices, outside and party money before 1 October, demographics and public-assistance shares from the Census release before the election, local unemployment and income, and religious tradition. The national margin comes from presidential approval, the economy, the midterm penalty and the generic ballot corrected for its measured lean. Draws share national and state errors, so the seat total and this district come from the same simulation.

Not answered here: district polls, which are not yet folded in.

Why does the model say this?

Each figure is how far this district's predicted lean moves when that one feature is set to the typical value across 2026 districts, everything else held: 2024 presidential lean (R+16.6): 5.8 pts toward the Republican; 2024 House lean: 2.7 pts toward the Republican; experience gap (+1 levels, D minus R): 2.4 pts toward the Democrat; outside money balance: 0.8 pts toward the Republican; military jobs share (0.3%): 0.4 pts toward the Democrat.

How sure is it, and of what?

Total sd 9.03 points, made of the seat's own volatility 91%, correlated polling error 9%. The decomposition is stored with the forecast rather than reconstructed, so a probability whose dominant input is a placeholder is visibly that.

Not answered here: a nowcast. 'If ballots were cast today' needs something that observes today, and for a House district nothing does. Publishing the election-day figure under both labels would make one forecast look like two.

How was this number made?

Run 6f211e6f-2bdc-4dda-8f72-81fc628dab0b, house_district_prior/0.2.0, as of 2026-10-02. Promoted by a pre-registered gate: on 2016-2022 its Brier score was 0.036 against 0.049 for the previous method, and on a single 2024 run 0.023 against 0.032 (experiments/district_gate_result.md, with an independent review).