Florida Senate
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
20 of 40 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 12 seats after November (80% range 11–14) and Republicans 27 (25–28). The other 1 seat is expected to go to independents, nonpartisan members or other parties. In 1 seat a Democrat or Republican faces only independents or minor-party candidates and is counted as winning; in 2018 to 2024 such candidates lost about 3% of the time, mostly to sitting independents.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 2 | Forecast | Lauren Donahoo (D), Jay Trumbull (R) | <1% | official |
| 3 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 4 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Clay Yarborough (R) | official | |
| 5 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 6 | Forecast | Jason Bellamy-Fults (D), Jennifer Bradley (R), Joseph Thornton (ASP) | 5% | official |
| 7 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 8 | Forecast | Jake Johansson (R), Judy Ngying (D), Gabriel Wozniak (Libertarian) | 3% | official |
| 9 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 10 | Forecast | Jason Brodeur (R), John Lowndes (D) | 21% | official |
| 11 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 12 | Forecast | Colleen Burton (R), Alfred Reynolds (D) | 1% | official |
| 13 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 14 | Forecast | Brian Nathan (D), Josie Tomkow (R) | 55% | official |
| 15 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 16 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Fentrice Driskell (D) | official | |
| 17 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 18 | Forecast | Nick DiCeglie (R), Karla Kemp (D) | 10% | official |
| 19 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 20 | Forecast | Gerald Baldi (D), Jim Boyd (R) | 5% | official |
| 21 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 22 | Forecast | James Buchanan (R), Martin Hyde (independent), Lew Wasserman (D) | 7% | official |
| 23 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 24 | Forecast | Mack Bernard (D), Jackie Green (R) | 98% | official |
| 25 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 26 | Forecast | Rick Roth (R), David Silvers (D) | 94% | official |
| 27 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 28 | Forecast | Lauren Melo (R), David Silverberg (D) | 7% | official |
| 29 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 30 | Forecast | Lauren Book (D), Hector Rivera (R) | 96% | official |
| 31 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 32 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Crescente Furnaguera (independent), Rosalind Osgood (D) | official | |
| 33 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 34 | Forecast | Ashley Gantt (D), Elizabeth Jeanty (R) | 96% | official |
| 35 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 36 | Forecast | Ileana Garcia (R), George Lavin (D) | 5% | official |
| 37 | Not up in 2026 (held by another party or independent) | |||
| 38 | Forecast | Alexis Calatayud (R), Richard Lamondin Jr. (D), Jeffrey Solomon (independent) | 21% | official |
| 39 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 40 | Forecast | Ramiro Orta (independent), Ana Rodriguez (R), Jose Stoute (D) | 5% | official |