TX-2 · House

The district, in brief

Texas's 2nd is a new district for 2026 encompassing most of the northern and northeastern suburbs of Houston, including The Woodlands, Spring, Kingwood, New Caney, Humble and Atascocita, plus the Willowbrook area of Houston itself. The text records Donald Trump at 60.8% and Ted Cruz at 58.0% here in 2024.

The incumbent, Republican Dan Crenshaw, re-elected with 65.7% in 2024, will not be on the general election ballot: he was defeated in the Republican primary by state representative Steve Toth, 55.8% to 40.7%. Toth has represented the 15th state house district (2013–2015, 2019–present) and ran for the 8th congressional district in 2016. A Meeting Street Research poll sponsored by Crenshaw's campaign (October 21–23, 2025) had shown Crenshaw 47%, Toth 19%. The Democratic nominee is Shaun Finnie, an investment banker, unopposed in his primary and endorsed by the Texas AFL-CIO; of the $2,308,251 he had raised by February 11, 2026, $1,718,000 was self-funded. As of April 26, 2026 Finnie had raised $2,560,873 with $1,543,081 on hand, Toth $698,325 with $124,318 on hand. The Republican primary section carries two endorsement lists not labelled by candidate, one including Jim Jordan, AIPAC and the Houston Chronicle, the other including Ted Cruz, the Freedom Caucus Fund and Turning Point Action.

Every rater with a call listed says R: Decision Desk HQ (July 14, 2026), the Cook Political Report (February 6, 2025), Inside Elections (March 7, 2025) and Sabato's Crystal Ball (September 18, 2025). Silver Bulletin is listed as of August 20, 2026 with no rating shown.

A paragraph quoting a model forecast from the day this brief was written is omitted; the current forecast is at the top of this page.

The facts, each beside its sentence

Not in the source: The only poll in the text is a Republican primary poll from before the primary; there is no general-election district poll, and the model's basis says none exist.; The two Republican endorsement blocks are not labelled by candidate, so the text does not say which endorsed Crenshaw and which endorsed Toth.; No general-election ratings finer than 'R' are given; Silver Bulletin's entry shows no rating. The rater dates predate Crenshaw's primary defeat, and the text does not say whether the calls were revisited.; The general-election fundraising table is only as of April 26, 2026.

Read from the district's section of Wikipedia's state page (CC BY-SA), archived as efe72be7e14a; written by claude-fable-5-1 (batch reader) on 2026-09-30 and checked mechanically: every quote occurs verbatim in the archived text, every number in the brief occurs in the inputs. No probability here is the reader's.

Who holds the seat now

Dan Crenshaw (Republican), in this chamber since 2019, 4 terms. Committees: House Committee on Energy and Commerce; House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence.

From the congress-legislators dataset (CC0), archived as ae8cb9477c48. For a Senate race this lists both of the state's senators; the one whose term ends in the election year holds the seat on the ballot. For a House district redrawn for 2026 it is the member elected under the old lines with this number, who may be running elsewhere; the dossier above names who is running here.

How it has voted for president

A shift of 3.3 points toward the Republicans from 2016 to 2024. county returns placed on the current lines by 2020 block population; MEDSL county file (2016), an MIT-licensed county file (2020, checked against certified state results) and MEDSL precinct returns (2024). For a district split across counties this is an estimate, and where the state published the exact 2024 figure for these lines, that exact figure is the one the model uses.

Who are the voters?

Of about 498,772 adults 25 and over. In 2020 the district voted 39.3% Democratic (two-party) for president. With the same preferences and a 2022-style midterm turnout, it would vote 39.4% Democratic: the midterm electorate alone moves the margin 0.3 points toward Democrats. Group shares are estimated from how results vary across the state's census tracts (ecological inference, anchored to Pew's 2020 validated-voter figures) and calibrated to this district's actual 2020 vote; turnout is the Census survey's state rate by race and national rate by education, whose state samples carry margins of several points.

Not answered here: how each group will vote in 2026. These are 2020 preferences; this profile is description, not yet an input to the forecast.

The money

FEC bulk candidate summaries through June 30, 2026; $3,851,541 of independent expenditures for or against these candidates this cycle (FEC Schedule E, types 24E and 24A), which is the parties' and outside groups' own revealed view of whether this seat is in play.

The district in numbers

ACS 5-year 2023, assembled from census tracts by the 2020 population of their blocks inside the current lines, because the Bureau has not tabulated these lines; medians are population-weighted means of tract medians. Unemployment is the BLS county series placed on the district by block population, not seasonally adjusted, so changes are same-month comparisons. Income, transfers and jobs are BEA county accounts placed the same way, compared with the average district. Every other figure is a named column of a named table in the Bureau's summary file, archived before it was read. This is what a reader knows about a district before looking at a poll; the model does not yet use it, and whether it should is a registered question.

Who is favoured, and by how much?

The 90% interval runs from -25.6 to +4.4 points, D-R. It is wide because this district has never been polled.

What is this built on?

A model trained on every contested House race 2012-2024 predicts this district's lean from its own record: presidential and House results on the current lines, incumbency, both candidates' prior offices, outside and party money before 1 October, demographics and public-assistance shares from the Census release before the election, local unemployment and income, and religious tradition. The national margin comes from presidential approval, the economy, the midterm penalty and the generic ballot corrected for its measured lean. Draws share national and state errors, so the seat total and this district come from the same simulation.

Not answered here: district polls, which are not yet folded in.

Why does the model say this?

Each figure is how far this district's predicted lean moves when that one feature is set to the typical value across 2026 districts, everything else held: 2024 presidential lean (R+21.6): 14.7 pts toward the Republican; 2024 House lean: 4.1 pts toward the Republican; total outside/party money: 3.8 pts toward the Democrat; outside money balance: 0.9 pts toward the Democrat; PAC money balance: 0.6 pts toward the Democrat.

How sure is it, and of what?

Total sd 9.11 points, made of the seat's own volatility 91%, correlated polling error 9%. The decomposition is stored with the forecast rather than reconstructed, so a probability whose dominant input is a placeholder is visibly that.

Not answered here: a nowcast. 'If ballots were cast today' needs something that observes today, and for a House district nothing does. Publishing the election-day figure under both labels would make one forecast look like two.

How was this number made?

Run 0b33151b-a949-47f1-b845-564833a2b74d, house_district_prior/0.2.0, as of 2026-10-02. Promoted by a pre-registered gate: on 2016-2022 its Brier score was 0.036 against 0.049 for the previous method, and on a single 2024 run 0.023 against 0.032 (experiments/district_gate_result.md, with an independent review).