Montana Senate
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
25 of 50 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 18 seats after November (80% range 17–20) and Republicans 32 (30–33). In 1 seat a Democrat or Republican faces only independents or minor-party candidates and is counted as winning; in 2018 to 2024 such candidates lost about 3% of the time, mostly to sitting independents.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) | Steve Gunderson (R), Jonathan Russell Jameson (D) | <1% | news guide |
| 2 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 3 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 4 | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) | Amy Regier (R), Kyle Waterman (D) | 1% | news guide |
| 5 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 6 | Forecast | Mark Noland (R), Patrick Fitzpatrick (D) | 4% | news guide |
| 7 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 8 | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) | Christopher Paul Buckles (R), Tyson T Running Wolf (D) | 91% | news guide |
| 9 | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) | Llew Jones (R), Noy Holland (D) | <1% | news guide |
| 10 | Forecast | Jessica Dyrdahl (R), Margaret Mitchell (D) | 7% | news guide |
| 11 | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) | Steven Galloway (R), Valynda Holland (D) | 11% | news guide |
| 12 | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) | George Nikolakakos (R), Mindy Leach (D) | 21% | news guide |
| 13 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 14 | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) | Eric Albus (R), Blake Borst (D) | <1% | news guide |
| 15 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 16 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 17 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 18 | Forecast | Greg Kmetz (R), Stan Taylor (D) | 7% | news guide |
| 19 | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) | Chris Rindal (R), Deanna J Daigrepont (D) | <1% | news guide |
| 20 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 21 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 22 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Daniel Zolnikov (R) | news guide | |
| 23 | Forecast | Joanna Oblander (R), Emma Kerr-Carpenter (D) | 96% | news guide |
| 24 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 25 | Forecast | Dennis Lenz (R), Julie Hippler (D) | 5% | news guide |
| 26 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 27 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 28 | Forecast | Forrest J Mandeville (R), Kelly Hale (D) | 5% | news guide |
| 29 | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) | Jason Gunderson (R), Scott Rosenzweig (D) | 77% | news guide |
| 30 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 31 | Forecast | Richard Aungier (R), Kathleen Williams (D) | 95% | news guide |
| 32 | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) | Neal Ganser (R), Kelly Kortum (D) | 91% | news guide |
| 33 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 34 | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) | Caleb Hinkle (R), Carl Anderson (D) | 1% | news guide |
| 35 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 36 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 37 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 38 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 39 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 40 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 41 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Erin Farris-Olsen (D), Dru Koester (Libertarian) | news guide | |
| 42 | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) | Stephen Lapraim (R), Mary Ann Dunwell (D) | 40% | news guide |
| 43 | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) | David Bedey (R), Stephen Leuchtman (D) | <1% | news guide |
| 44 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 45 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 46 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 47 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 48 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Andrea Olsen (D) | news guide | |
| 49 | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) | Brad Tschida (R), Willis Curdy (D) | 99% | news guide |
| 50 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Shane A Morigeau (D) | news guide |